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Fizzle rate broken

2
AuthorMessage
Survivor
Mar 05, 2011
31
supered10 wrote:
tonym144 wrote:
I am constantly noticing that a spell with an 80% success rate is only successful about 50% of the time. Now, 80% means it works 4 out of 5 times, not 2 out of 5. Can we please get this fixed? I have literally counted it out and I've had spells fizzle 3 out of 5 times casting them (which means a 40% chance of success) and my lowest chance card is 70%. It is definitely broken!


that is a 60% chance not 40% chance by the way.BUT that is how many times you EXPECT it to fizzle not how many times it WILL fizzle.Okay,think of it this way:

you have 5 marbles and 80% of them are red.The 20% are blue.You EXPECT to get a red marble 4 times and only get 1 blue every five times you do it(you put the marble you picked back after picking it out BTW)Obviously the blue represents the times you fizzle and the red represents the times you dont fizzle.You may EXPECT to do the spell without fizzling 4 times but that MAY not happen.Try doing what i just said 5 times and see what you will get.

Ps put the marbles in a bag lol

I you honestly care so much about not fizzling like me, do life.

Ethan DarkHeart Master Of Life


No, read again my friend. I said if it fizzles 3 times out of 5, that's a 40% success rate, not a 60% success rate. As far as your marble game, statistics is a strength of mine, and your scenario is not an acceptable scenario. To be acceptable, you'd have to have multiple sets of marbles and pick only one from each one. If you keep choosing from the same one, then you will not have a fair selection as the odds for that set of marbles have changed. You have to have a fresh set of marbles to have the exact same chances every time. Statistically speaking, 80% means 4 out of 5. So if I do the same spell 10 times, I should expect it to fizzle twice only. I just got done with a fight where the 85% spell fizzled three times out of five times casting. That is way too high. If that spell was 85%, then I should expect it to NOT fizzle the next 15 times it gets cast. Plain and simple, the fizzle rate is too high.

Survivor
Mar 05, 2011
31
Superwiz1560 wrote:
Why do people always thin something is broken when it's much more likey that you've run across a spot of bad luck? Luck is a big factor when it comes to accuracy, and you can't break luck down into mathematical equations. You could have a 99% chance of success and still fizzle twice in a row. That doesn't mean something's broken; luck just isn't on your side at the moment.

Now, something would be broken if a ward or a charm fizzled. That's something that Customer Support would be interested to hear about. If something fizzles more often than it should and it DOESN'T have 100% accuracy, don't immediately blame the game.

Jack Fireheart Level 60 Pyromancer and Pyro-sniper


Actually, you can break luck down into a mathematical equation. I don't know what it is, but to put it at its most basic, if I play the lottery and every drawing pick the exact same numbers, then my chances of hitting those numbers increase with each time I play them. If you have one number random and one number the same every time, the odds always get better each time that the number chosen will be your number. The only way the odds won't increase is if you randomize both numbers.

Survivor
Mar 05, 2011
31
slammer111 wrote:
darthjt wrote:
slammer111 wrote:
darthjt wrote:
Superwiz1560 wrote:
Why do people always thin something is broken when it's much more likey that you've run across a spot of bad luck? Luck is a big factor when it comes to accuracy, and you can't break luck down into mathematical equations. You could have a 99% chance of success and still fizzle twice in a row. That doesn't mean something's broken; luck just isn't on your side at the moment.

Now, something would be broken if a ward or a charm fizzled. That's something that Customer Support would be interested to hear about. If something fizzles more often than it should and it DOESN'T have 100% accuracy, don't immediately blame the game.

Jack Fireheart Level 60 Pyromancer and Pyro-sniper


Okay, simple question then, how many times would you have to fizzle at 99% accuracy before you thought it was broken? say 30 out of 100? 20 out of 100? 10 out of 100? 3 in a row? 4 in a row? 5 in a row? we are after all, talking about 99% accuracy here!


hey could i bring back your previous example???? ok 100 marbles in a bag (heavy bag) and you take out one red and put in one blue, ok, so now you draw a marble out of the bag, and you put it back in, there is a SLIGHT chance, and i mean miniscule, that you will bring out the blue 5 times in a row (terribly unlikely but it COULD happen) cause the blue is still floating around in there. would you say THAT is broken, even if YOU draw the marbles???? i would say superwiz was right, its about luck, nothing is broken, and you cant call something broken if you dont know how it works


I understand the possibilities, however, if you have 1 Blue marble and 99 Red Marble and shake up the bag every time, the chances of you pulling 5 Blue marbles is astronomical. You have a better chance of getting hit by lightining AND winning the lottery at the same time than you do of doing that.


yea i know way too well, but still, there is a chance, and that actually is easier than you would think, a really dumb person might try to scratch off a ticket during a lightning storm with a lightning rod, never know...


Let me explain something here. If you have a roulette wheel and it has 38 numbers (1 - 36 and the 0 and 00), the odds of hitting the same number 5 times in a row are 69343956 to 1. That means if I try it over 69 million times, it will happen once. And that's with just 38 numbers. Now try that with 100. I think I made my point here. When he says "astronomical" he really means it. So yes, it IS broken.

Survivor
Jul 09, 2009
12
darthjt wrote:
supered10 wrote:
tonym144 wrote:
I am constantly noticing that a spell with an 80% success rate is only successful about 50% of the time. Now, 80% means it works 4 out of 5 times, not 2 out of 5. Can we please get this fixed? I have literally counted it out and I've had spells fizzle 3 out of 5 times casting them (which means a 40% chance of success) and my lowest chance card is 70%. It is definitely broken!


that is a 60% chance not 40% chance by the way.BUT that is how many times you EXPECT it to fizzle not how many times it WILL fizzle.Okay,think of it this way:

you have 5 marbles and 80% of them are red.The 20% are blue.You EXPECT to get a red marble 4 times and only get 1 blue every five times you do it(you put the marble you picked back after picking it out BTW)Obviously the blue represents the times you fizzle and the red represents the times you dont fizzle.You may EXPECT to do the spell without fizzling 4 times but that MAY not happen.Try doing what i just said 5 times and see what you will get.

Ps put the marbles in a bag lol

I you honestly care so much about not fizzling like me, do life.

Ethan DarkHeart Master Of Life


This is your idea of math? Would it not be easier to take 100 marbles, representing 100%, then if you have say 94% accuracy, replace 6 marbles with a different color, then see how many times you would pull a fizzle. That would be a more accurate representation of accuracy! However, this is not how accuracy is presented in the game, even with a random number generator, so clearly, accuracy and fizzle rates are broken.


Yes it is my idea of math. I am representing what his accuracy by what it actually is. Obviously, all i did was reduce the fraction which you must know since you are asking me if that is what i call math. (and remember i'm no mathematician. So don't feel like i am saying i'm a master at math or something.) 80/100 reduces to 40/50 which reduces to 20/25 which reduces to 4/5. And NO it is NOT broken. You tend to fizzle when you have 80% instead of 85% or 90%. If fizzling bugs you that much, you should be life. Trust me, i absolutely hate other schools because of fizzle rate. It annoys me so much to fizzle. Simple solution:Be life like i did. You can heal and at level 40, i've done over 3000 damage

Ethan DarkHeart Master Of Life

Survivor
Mar 05, 2011
31
supered10 wrote:
darthjt wrote:
supered10 wrote:
tonym144 wrote:
I am constantly noticing that a spell with an 80% success rate is only successful about 50% of the time. Now, 80% means it works 4 out of 5 times, not 2 out of 5. Can we please get this fixed? I have literally counted it out and I've had spells fizzle 3 out of 5 times casting them (which means a 40% chance of success) and my lowest chance card is 70%. It is definitely broken!


that is a 60% chance not 40% chance by the way.BUT that is how many times you EXPECT it to fizzle not how many times it WILL fizzle.Okay,think of it this way:

you have 5 marbles and 80% of them are red.The 20% are blue.You EXPECT to get a red marble 4 times and only get 1 blue every five times you do it(you put the marble you picked back after picking it out BTW)Obviously the blue represents the times you fizzle and the red represents the times you dont fizzle.You may EXPECT to do the spell without fizzling 4 times but that MAY not happen.Try doing what i just said 5 times and see what you will get.

Ps put the marbles in a bag lol

I you honestly care so much about not fizzling like me, do life.

Ethan DarkHeart Master Of Life


This is your idea of math? Would it not be easier to take 100 marbles, representing 100%, then if you have say 94% accuracy, replace 6 marbles with a different color, then see how many times you would pull a fizzle. That would be a more accurate representation of accuracy! However, this is not how accuracy is presented in the game, even with a random number generator, so clearly, accuracy and fizzle rates are broken.


Yes it is my idea of math. I am representing what his accuracy by what it actually is. Obviously, all i did was reduce the fraction which you must know since you are asking me if that is what i call math. (and remember i'm no mathematician. So don't feel like i am saying i'm a master at math or something.) 80/100 reduces to 40/50 which reduces to 20/25 which reduces to 4/5. And NO it is NOT broken. You tend to fizzle when you have 80% instead of 85% or 90%. If fizzling bugs you that much, you should be life. Trust me, i absolutely hate other schools because of fizzle rate. It annoys me so much to fizzle. Simple solution:Be life like i did. You can heal and at level 40, i've done over 3000 damage

Ethan DarkHeart Master Of Life


Well, I DO have life, and the 90% fizzles too. In fact, I have had a 90% fizzle 4 times in a match out of the 6 or 7 times that I cast it. I don't care HOW much you tell me it isn't broken, it is. Probability is the measure of what CAN happen. Statistics is the measure of what HAS happened. The probability of a spell working is 90% with life. The statistics of how often it DOES work is about 60%. So it would appear to me that statistics and probability are not equal, and that being the case, then something is broken. That's as plain as it can be. If it were working correctly, then those numbers would be the same or at least close. But they aren't.

Mastermind
Feb 16, 2009
328
tonym144 wrote:
Superwiz1560 wrote:
Why do people always thin something is broken when it's much more likey that you've run across a spot of bad luck? Luck is a big factor when it comes to accuracy, and you can't break luck down into mathematical equations. You could have a 99% chance of success and still fizzle twice in a row. That doesn't mean something's broken; luck just isn't on your side at the moment.

Now, something would be broken if a ward or a charm fizzled. That's something that Customer Support would be interested to hear about. If something fizzles more often than it should and it DOESN'T have 100% accuracy, don't immediately blame the game.

Jack Fireheart Level 60 Pyromancer and Pyro-sniper


Actually, you can break luck down into a mathematical equation. I don't know what it is, but to put it at its most basic, if I play the lottery and every drawing pick the exact same numbers, then my chances of hitting those numbers increase with each time I play them. If you have one number random and one number the same every time, the odds always get better each time that the number chosen will be your number. The only way the odds won't increase is if you randomize both numbers.


You are correct in your example. However, can you give a proper mathematical equation to your example without using percentages, ratios, fractions, or anything that has anything to do with probability (except the numbers themselves)? If you can, congrats; you're the only person I've seen that can turn luck into a mathematical equation.

If you can't, however, then you'll see my point. Luck (at least in my experience) cannot be put in number form. When I try, I always end up with some form of probability. Probability and luck are two very different things.

Jack Fireheart Level 60 Pyromancer and -Insert Tagline Here-

Armiger
May 10, 2010
2080
supered10 wrote:
darthjt wrote:
supered10 wrote:
tonym144 wrote:
I am constantly noticing that a spell with an 80% success rate is only successful about 50% of the time. Now, 80% means it works 4 out of 5 times, not 2 out of 5. Can we please get this fixed? I have literally counted it out and I've had spells fizzle 3 out of 5 times casting them (which means a 40% chance of success) and my lowest chance card is 70%. It is definitely broken!


that is a 60% chance not 40% chance by the way.BUT that is how many times you EXPECT it to fizzle not how many times it WILL fizzle.Okay,think of it this way:

you have 5 marbles and 80% of them are red.The 20% are blue.You EXPECT to get a red marble 4 times and only get 1 blue every five times you do it(you put the marble you picked back after picking it out BTW)Obviously the blue represents the times you fizzle and the red represents the times you dont fizzle.You may EXPECT to do the spell without fizzling 4 times but that MAY not happen.Try doing what i just said 5 times and see what you will get.

Ps put the marbles in a bag lol

I you honestly care so much about not fizzling like me, do life.

Ethan DarkHeart Master Of Life


This is your idea of math? Would it not be easier to take 100 marbles, representing 100%, then if you have say 94% accuracy, replace 6 marbles with a different color, then see how many times you would pull a fizzle. That would be a more accurate representation of accuracy! However, this is not how accuracy is presented in the game, even with a random number generator, so clearly, accuracy and fizzle rates are broken.


Yes it is my idea of math. I am representing what his accuracy by what it actually is. Obviously, all i did was reduce the fraction which you must know since you are asking me if that is what i call math. (and remember i'm no mathematician. So don't feel like i am saying i'm a master at math or something.) 80/100 reduces to 40/50 which reduces to 20/25 which reduces to 4/5. And NO it is NOT broken. You tend to fizzle when you have 80% instead of 85% or 90%. If fizzling bugs you that much, you should be life. Trust me, i absolutely hate other schools because of fizzle rate. It annoys me so much to fizzle. Simple solution:Be life like i did. You can heal and at level 40, i've done over 3000 damage

Ethan DarkHeart Master Of Life


Yes, I understand completely about reducing of fractions. There is usually more to the story though, which you might have missed. So, reduce this fraction, if you can. 99% accuracy, then it fizzles 3 times in a row, then works, fizzles, works, and fizzles again. Now if you have 99% accuracy, how many times do you have to fizzle before you consider it broken? Especially since the next 10 to 20 spells cast, some were fizzles and no, negatives were not used!

Survivor
Mar 05, 2011
31
Superwiz1560 wrote:
tonym144 wrote:
Superwiz1560 wrote:
Why do people always thin something is broken when it's much more likey that you've run across a spot of bad luck? Luck is a big factor when it comes to accuracy, and you can't break luck down into mathematical equations. You could have a 99% chance of success and still fizzle twice in a row. That doesn't mean something's broken; luck just isn't on your side at the moment.

Now, something would be broken if a ward or a charm fizzled. That's something that Customer Support would be interested to hear about. If something fizzles more often than it should and it DOESN'T have 100% accuracy, don't immediately blame the game.

Jack Fireheart Level 60 Pyromancer and Pyro-sniper


Actually, you can break luck down into a mathematical equation. I don't know what it is, but to put it at its most basic, if I play the lottery and every drawing pick the exact same numbers, then my chances of hitting those numbers increase with each time I play them. If you have one number random and one number the same every time, the odds always get better each time that the number chosen will be your number. The only way the odds won't increase is if you randomize both numbers.


You are correct in your example. However, can you give a proper mathematical equation to your example without using percentages, ratios, fractions, or anything that has anything to do with probability (except the numbers themselves)? If you can, congrats; you're the only person I've seen that can turn luck into a mathematical equation.

If you can't, however, then you'll see my point. Luck (at least in my experience) cannot be put in number form. When I try, I always end up with some form of probability. Probability and luck are two very different things.

Jack Fireheart Level 60 Pyromancer and -Insert Tagline Here-

Well, how about Statistical data = S1, Probability data = P1 and Measure of difference = D1:

P1(x) - S1(x) = D1(x) = 0. If D1(x) does not = 0, then P1(x) and S1(x) are imbalanced.
There, I made you a mathematical formula, satisfied? :P
When dealing with statistics and probability, ceteris paribus, they should be the same in the end. If not, then one of the two is askew and incorrect.

Survivor
Mar 05, 2011
31
darthjt wrote:
supered10 wrote:
darthjt wrote:
supered10 wrote:
tonym144 wrote:
I am constantly noticing that a spell with an 80% success rate is only successful about 50% of the time. Now, 80% means it works 4 out of 5 times, not 2 out of 5. Can we please get this fixed? I have literally counted it out and I've had spells fizzle 3 out of 5 times casting them (which means a 40% chance of success) and my lowest chance card is 70%. It is definitely broken!


that is a 60% chance not 40% chance by the way.BUT that is how many times you EXPECT it to fizzle not how many times it WILL fizzle.Okay,think of it this way:

you have 5 marbles and 80% of them are red.The 20% are blue.You EXPECT to get a red marble 4 times and only get 1 blue every five times you do it(you put the marble you picked back after picking it out BTW)Obviously the blue represents the times you fizzle and the red represents the times you dont fizzle.You may EXPECT to do the spell without fizzling 4 times but that MAY not happen.Try doing what i just said 5 times and see what you will get.

Ps put the marbles in a bag lol

I you honestly care so much about not fizzling like me, do life.

Ethan DarkHeart Master Of Life


This is your idea of math? Would it not be easier to take 100 marbles, representing 100%, then if you have say 94% accuracy, replace 6 marbles with a different color, then see how many times you would pull a fizzle. That would be a more accurate representation of accuracy! However, this is not how accuracy is presented in the game, even with a random number generator, so clearly, accuracy and fizzle rates are broken.


Yes it is my idea of math. I am representing what his accuracy by what it actually is. Obviously, all i did was reduce the fraction which you must know since you are asking me if that is what i call math. (and remember i'm no mathematician. So don't feel like i am saying i'm a master at math or something.) 80/100 reduces to 40/50 which reduces to 20/25 which reduces to 4/5. And NO it is NOT broken. You tend to fizzle when you have 80% instead of 85% or 90%. If fizzling bugs you that much, you should be life. Trust me, i absolutely hate other schools because of fizzle rate. It annoys me so much to fizzle. Simple solution:Be life like i did. You can heal and at level 40, i've done over 3000 damage

Ethan DarkHeart Master Of Life


Yes, I understand completely about reducing of fractions. There is usually more to the story though, which you might have missed. So, reduce this fraction, if you can. 99% accuracy, then it fizzles 3 times in a row, then works, fizzles, works, and fizzles again. Now if you have 99% accuracy, how many times do you have to fizzle before you consider it broken? Especially since the next 10 to 20 spells cast, some were fizzles and no, negatives were not used!


Besides which, when you are dealing with percentages, you can not reduce. 80% is 80 times out of 100. The only way to get an accurate sampling of the data is to perform the test 100 times if you want an exact percentage. If you only perform the test 5 times and it fizzles once, then you would have 80%, but if you went further and tested another 95 times and it fizzled another 25 times out of those 95 further attempts, that would make it 70%, not 80%. So reducing it is futile. It doesn't become a percentage anymore, just a statistic. I'm willing to bet if I cast the same spell with an 80% success rate 100 times, I'd get more than 20 fizzles. And if you want to call it bad luck, then let's do the same thing with an automated system. They CAN'T have luck, good or bad. They can only give an accurate sampling of probability.

Mastermind
Feb 16, 2009
328
tonym144 wrote:
Superwiz1560 wrote:
tonym144 wrote:
Superwiz1560 wrote:
Why do people always thin something is broken when it's much more likey that you've run across a spot of bad luck? Luck is a big factor when it comes to accuracy, and you can't break luck down into mathematical equations. You could have a 99% chance of success and still fizzle twice in a row. That doesn't mean something's broken; luck just isn't on your side at the moment.

Now, something would be broken if a ward or a charm fizzled. That's something that Customer Support would be interested to hear about. If something fizzles more often than it should and it DOESN'T have 100% accuracy, don't immediately blame the game.

Jack Fireheart Level 60 Pyromancer and Pyro-sniper


Actually, you can break luck down into a mathematical equation. I don't know what it is, but to put it at its most basic, if I play the lottery and every drawing pick the exact same numbers, then my chances of hitting those numbers increase with each time I play them. If you have one number random and one number the same every time, the odds always get better each time that the number chosen will be your number. The only way the odds won't increase is if you randomize both numbers.


You are correct in your example. However, can you give a proper mathematical equation to your example without using percentages, ratios, fractions, or anything that has anything to do with probability (except the numbers themselves)? If you can, congrats; you're the only person I've seen that can turn luck into a mathematical equation.

If you can't, however, then you'll see my point. Luck (at least in my experience) cannot be put in number form. When I try, I always end up with some form of probability. Probability and luck are two very different things.

Jack Fireheart Level 60 Pyromancer and -Insert Tagline Here-

Well, how about Statistical data = S1, Probability data = P1 and Measure of difference = D1:

P1(x) - S1(x) = D1(x) = 0. If D1(x) does not = 0, then P1(x) and S1(x) are imbalanced.
There, I made you a mathematical formula, satisfied? :P
When dealing with statistics and probability, ceteris paribus, they should be the same in the end. If not, then one of the two is askew and incorrect.


Hrm... Yeah, you've definitely made a mathematical formula. Of what, I don't know, however. I can't piece this mathematical equation into your previous example.

Don't get me wrong; I understand the equation pretty well. I just can't see how it fits into your previous example, or how it explains that luck can be made into a proper equation.

I may just be being stupid, but if you could, could you elaborate? I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around it.

Jack Fireheart Level 60 Pyromancer and Currently Flabbergasted

Survivor
Mar 05, 2011
31
Superwiz1560 wrote:
tonym144 wrote:
Superwiz1560 wrote:
tonym144 wrote:
Superwiz1560 wrote:
Why do people always thin something is broken when it's much more likey that you've run across a spot of bad luck? Luck is a big factor when it comes to accuracy, and you can't break luck down into mathematical equations. You could have a 99% chance of success and still fizzle twice in a row. That doesn't mean something's broken; luck just isn't on your side at the moment.

Now, something would be broken if a ward or a charm fizzled. That's something that Customer Support would be interested to hear about. If something fizzles more often than it should and it DOESN'T have 100% accuracy, don't immediately blame the game.

Jack Fireheart Level 60 Pyromancer and Pyro-sniper


Actually, you can break luck down into a mathematical equation. I don't know what it is, but to put it at its most basic, if I play the lottery and every drawing pick the exact same numbers, then my chances of hitting those numbers increase with each time I play them. If you have one number random and one number the same every time, the odds always get better each time that the number chosen will be your number. The only way the odds won't increase is if you randomize both numbers.


You are correct in your example. However, can you give a proper mathematical equation to your example without using percentages, ratios, fractions, or anything that has anything to do with probability (except the numbers themselves)? If you can, congrats; you're the only person I've seen that can turn luck into a mathematical equation.

If you can't, however, then you'll see my point. Luck (at least in my experience) cannot be put in number form. When I try, I always end up with some form of probability. Probability and luck are two very different things.

Jack Fireheart Level 60 Pyromancer and -Insert Tagline Here-

Well, how about Statistical data = S1, Probability data = P1 and Measure of difference = D1:

P1(x) - S1(x) = D1(x) = 0. If D1(x) does not = 0, then P1(x) and S1(x) are imbalanced.
There, I made you a mathematical formula, satisfied? :P
When dealing with statistics and probability, ceteris paribus, they should be the same in the end. If not, then one of the two is askew and incorrect.


Hrm... Yeah, you've definitely made a mathematical formula. Of what, I don't know, however. I can't piece this mathematical equation into your previous example.

Don't get me wrong; I understand the equation pretty well. I just can't see how it fits into your previous example, or how it explains that luck can be made into a proper equation.

I may just be being stupid, but if you could, could you elaborate? I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around it.

Jack Fireheart Level 60 Pyromancer and Currently Flabbergasted


Sure, easy enough. Luck does not really enter into the equation. Luck is something that requires outside influences. Wind, dust and sun in someone's eyes are all examples of how luck makes a difference. When you are talking the algorithms of a computer, luck can not enter into the equation because they are set up a specific way that are not acted upon by an outside influence. Computer algorithms are, at their most basic, pure. Unless the programmers INTRODUCE luck into the equation, it doesn't have any effect. If they DID introduce luck into it, then they would have to make luck another set of variables that you could change. Therefore, the statistics and the probability will have to be equal in the end.

Astrologist
Aug 13, 2009
1087
tonym144 wrote:
I am constantly noticing that a spell with an 80% success rate is only successful about 50% of the time. Now, 80% means it works 4 out of 5 times, not 2 out of 5. Can we please get this fixed? I have literally counted it out and I've had spells fizzle 3 out of 5 times casting them (which means a 40% chance of success) and my lowest chance card is 70%. It is definitely broken!

This is a matter of chance, my friend. Sometimes you'll notice your getting great non-fizzling and sometimes your fizzles will bug you for what feels like eternity.

Explorer
Oct 28, 2010
58
tonym144 wrote:
Superwiz1560 wrote:
tonym144 wrote:
Superwiz1560 wrote:
Why do people always thin something is broken when it's much more likey that you've run across a spot of bad luck? Luck is a big factor when it comes to accuracy, and you can't break luck down into mathematical equations. You could have a 99% chance of success and still fizzle twice in a row. That doesn't mean something's broken; luck just isn't on your side at the moment.

Now, something would be broken if a ward or a charm fizzled. That's something that Customer Support would be interested to hear about. If something fizzles more often than it should and it DOESN'T have 100% accuracy, don't immediately blame the game.

Jack Fireheart Level 60 Pyromancer and Pyro-sniper


Actually, you can break luck down into a mathematical equation. I don't know what it is, but to put it at its most basic, if I play the lottery and every drawing pick the exact same numbers, then my chances of hitting those numbers increase with each time I play them. If you have one number random and one number the same every time, the odds always get better each time that the number chosen will be your number. The only way the odds won't increase is if you randomize both numbers.


You are correct in your example. However, can you give a proper mathematical equation to your example without using percentages, ratios, fractions, or anything that has anything to do with probability (except the numbers themselves)? If you can, congrats; you're the only person I've seen that can turn luck into a mathematical equation.

If you can't, however, then you'll see my point. Luck (at least in my experience) cannot be put in number form. When I try, I always end up with some form of probability. Probability and luck are two very different things.

Jack Fireheart Level 60 Pyromancer and -Insert Tagline Here-

Well, how about Statistical data = S1, Probability data = P1 and Measure of difference = D1:

P1(x) - S1(x) = D1(x) = 0. If D1(x) does not = 0, then P1(x) and S1(x) are imbalanced.
There, I made you a mathematical formula, satisfied? :P
When dealing with statistics and probability, ceteris paribus, they should be the same in the end. If not, then one of the two is askew and incorrect.


What you are referring to here is error and it is backwards. Error formulas take the actual minus the expected. .

Actually error is quite common in statistics and it doesn't mean the system is broken. The opposite is generally true, when you don't see error, something is usually wrong.

What most of you are talking about is bias. Does the inherent formula used by the system create a statistically significant deviation from the norm.

Unfortunately, we don't know how KI calculates their formula, nor do we know precisely how accuracy bonus is applied.
Is it a percent add on? 70% plus 29% bonus = 99%
Or is it applied like damage bonuses? 70% * (1+29% bonus) = 90.3%
If its the latter then failing three times out of five is more probable.

Furthermore, most of this is just anecdotal evidence. A real statistical sample would need to be at least 1000 random samples (depends on the confidence level and confidence interval you want to hit) considering how big the population is.

Using excel and other statistical programs, I took 10000 records and calculated the number of failures. Not surprisingly, at 90% accuracy it failed around 1000 times. Also, on average it failed 3 times in a row 10 times and four times in a row 1 time.

So, to answer the original post. Is it broken? Hard to tell, need a greater sample size and more information on how numbers are calculated. Is it possible to get 3 or more fizzles in a row? Absolutely. Can I rant about how my wizard was just killed because I fizzled? Totally.

Survivor
Jan 17, 2010
19
Fiz has never been right and it never will be. I have 103% accuracy on my storm legend with gear and pet. Common sense would dictate you would never fiz. Last time I checked 100% is all of the time, so above that would, be even more all of the time? LOL. Anywho, point being I still fiz on him.

That being said yes, I'm working on an Ice wiz. Base accuracy is supposed to be 80%, plus I use crown gear, adds another 6 (only lvl42). The fiz is the worst out of every other school I have leveled. I have 5 legends on the account already so I've been around the realms. No way I should expect to fiz the first blizzard I cast in a battle, but guess what happens almost every time, if you guessed fiz you get a cookie. I won't cast it unless I have 2 in my hand...

Formulate, guess and compare all you want. I know it doesn't work right, most of the players know it doesn't work right. It is never going to work right. Just gotta deal with it and have fun.

Mastermind
Feb 16, 2009
328
magnumopus wrote:
Fiz has never been right and it never will be. I have 103% accuracy on my storm legend with gear and pet. Common sense would dictate you would never fiz. Last time I checked 100% is all of the time, so above that would, be even more all of the time? LOL. Anywho, point being I still fiz on him.

That being said yes, I'm working on an Ice wiz. Base accuracy is supposed to be 80%, plus I use crown gear, adds another 6 (only lvl42). The fiz is the worst out of every other school I have leveled. I have 5 legends on the account already so I've been around the realms. No way I should expect to fiz the first blizzard I cast in a battle, but guess what happens almost every time, if you guessed fiz you get a cookie. I won't cast it unless I have 2 in my hand...

Formulate, guess and compare all you want. I know it doesn't work right, most of the players know it doesn't work right. It is never going to work right. Just gotta deal with it and have fun.


You actually don't have to deal with fizzling on 103% accuracy. If you send a ticket into support, they'll look into it and tell you if there's a problem. You only need to formulate, guess, and compare if you have less than 100% accuracy. If you do, and you STILL fizzle, there's a problem, and you dont have to accept it when there's a possibility that it can be fixed.

Survivor
Jan 17, 2010
19
Superwiz1560 wrote:
magnumopus wrote:
Fiz has never been right and it never will be. I have 103% accuracy on my storm legend with gear and pet. Common sense would dictate you would never fiz. Last time I checked 100% is all of the time, so above that would, be even more all of the time? LOL. Anywho, point being I still fiz on him.

That being said yes, I'm working on an Ice wiz. Base accuracy is supposed to be 80%, plus I use crown gear, adds another 6 (only lvl42). The fiz is the worst out of every other school I have leveled. I have 5 legends on the account already so I've been around the realms. No way I should expect to fiz the first blizzard I cast in a battle, but guess what happens almost every time, if you guessed fiz you get a cookie. I won't cast it unless I have 2 in my hand...

Formulate, guess and compare all you want. I know it doesn't work right, most of the players know it doesn't work right. It is never going to work right. Just gotta deal with it and have fun.


You actually don't have to deal with fizzling on 103% accuracy. If you send a ticket into support, they'll look into it and tell you if there's a problem. You only need to formulate, guess, and compare if you have less than 100% accuracy. If you do, and you STILL fizzle, there's a problem, and you dont have to accept it when there's a possibility that it can be fixed.


So they can go in and fix a fiz rate on a specific wizard on a specific account? I don't think so. What would lead you to believe that there is a possibility to fix it? It has been this way since I've been on this game. There has never been any "fiz fixes" I have ever heard of. My life wiz has over 100% also and guess what happens, Rebirth will fiz in pvp from time to time, not often, but it happens. It's been like this as long as I've been playing and have never heard of somebody having their fiz rate reduced due to a ticket being submitted... I didn't just get off the boat...

Mastermind
Feb 16, 2009
328
magnumopus wrote:
Superwiz1560 wrote:
magnumopus wrote:
Fiz has never been right and it never will be. I have 103% accuracy on my storm legend with gear and pet. Common sense would dictate you would never fiz. Last time I checked 100% is all of the time, so above that would, be even more all of the time? LOL. Anywho, point being I still fiz on him.

That being said yes, I'm working on an Ice wiz. Base accuracy is supposed to be 80%, plus I use crown gear, adds another 6 (only lvl42). The fiz is the worst out of every other school I have leveled. I have 5 legends on the account already so I've been around the realms. No way I should expect to fiz the first blizzard I cast in a battle, but guess what happens almost every time, if you guessed fiz you get a cookie. I won't cast it unless I have 2 in my hand...

Formulate, guess and compare all you want. I know it doesn't work right, most of the players know it doesn't work right. It is never going to work right. Just gotta deal with it and have fun.


You actually don't have to deal with fizzling on 103% accuracy. If you send a ticket into support, they'll look into it and tell you if there's a problem. You only need to formulate, guess, and compare if you have less than 100% accuracy. If you do, and you STILL fizzle, there's a problem, and you dont have to accept it when there's a possibility that it can be fixed.


So they can go in and fix a fiz rate on a specific wizard on a specific account? I don't think so. What would lead you to believe that there is a possibility to fix it? It has been this way since I've been on this game. There has never been any "fiz fixes" I have ever heard of. My life wiz has over 100% also and guess what happens, Rebirth will fiz in pvp from time to time, not often, but it happens. It's been like this as long as I've been playing and have never heard of somebody having their fiz rate reduced due to a ticket being submitted... I didn't just get off the boat...


I didn't say they could fix it, I said they'd tell you if there's a problem and whether there's a possibility that it could be fixed. And by the way, there was one major 'fiz fix' when the game was young, when even 100% accuracy spells would fizzle. It turned out to be a major glitch in the system and after some downtime, it was all better.

If there's a problem, KI will not raise your accuracy (which is equivalent to what you say is 'reducing the fix rate'. By the way, there's no such thing), they will inform you of it and tell you if it can be fixed. It'll never hurt to send in a Support ticket. Even if there's isn't a problem, they (usually) won't leave you in the dark. But in your case, with over 100% accuracy, there's a good chance that there might be a problem, whether it be with your PC (player character) specifically, or in the whole system.

Survivor
Apr 18, 2009
10
I agree. I have plus 16 percent for fire and I fizzle more than I did when it was 75%.I fizzled twice in a row even with plus 16%.

Mastermind
Feb 16, 2009
328
fireglobe109 wrote:
I agree. I have plus 16 percent for fire and I fizzle more than I did when it was 75%.I fizzled twice in a row even with plus 16%.


You have the chance of fizzling twice in a row on any accuracy under one hundred percent. With 91% accuracy, you think you'd never fizzle, right? Lot's of Theurgists think the same thing, and I know a lot who will tell you that it's very possible to fizzle many times in one battle with really good accuracy.

Survivor
Mar 05, 2011
31
Superwiz1560 wrote:
fireglobe109 wrote:
I agree. I have plus 16 percent for fire and I fizzle more than I did when it was 75%.I fizzled twice in a row even with plus 16%.


You have the chance of fizzling twice in a row on any accuracy under one hundred percent. With 91% accuracy, you think you'd never fizzle, right? Lot's of Theurgists think the same thing, and I know a lot who will tell you that it's very possible to fizzle many times in one battle with really good accuracy.


I can understand a chance to fizzle, that's normal. But I have a specific spell in mind that has an 80% success rate (don't ask, I can't remember the name of it), and I can count on one hand the number of times it was successfully cast out of the last 30 - 35 times I've tried casting it. SERIOUSLY! Now you can't possibly tell me that it is NOT broken, that's impossible.

Mastermind
Feb 16, 2009
328
tonym144 wrote:
Superwiz1560 wrote:
fireglobe109 wrote:
I agree. I have plus 16 percent for fire and I fizzle more than I did when it was 75%.I fizzled twice in a row even with plus 16%.


You have the chance of fizzling twice in a row on any accuracy under one hundred percent. With 91% accuracy, you think you'd never fizzle, right? Lot's of Theurgists think the same thing, and I know a lot who will tell you that it's very possible to fizzle many times in one battle with really good accuracy.


I can understand a chance to fizzle, that's normal. But I have a specific spell in mind that has an 80% success rate (don't ask, I can't remember the name of it), and I can count on one hand the number of times it was successfully cast out of the last 30 - 35 times I've tried casting it. SERIOUSLY! Now you can't possibly tell me that it is NOT broken, that's impossible.


Nothing's impossible when it comes to accuracy. I can't stress that enough. But, if you truly think something is wrong, instead of trying to challenge my views, contact support... That's another thing I cannot stress enough.

Jack Fireheart Level 60 Pyromancer and Retired Stresser

Explorer
Jul 26, 2009
62
Just to let you know that is your chance on that spell and that spell ONLY. The rate is not for total spell casting. I am not saying that it isnt frustrating which it is very, but you have to realize what the fizzle chance really means.

Survivor
Mar 05, 2011
31
Superwiz1560 wrote:
tonym144 wrote:
Superwiz1560 wrote:
fireglobe109 wrote:
I agree. I have plus 16 percent for fire and I fizzle more than I did when it was 75%.I fizzled twice in a row even with plus 16%.


You have the chance of fizzling twice in a row on any accuracy under one hundred percent. With 91% accuracy, you think you'd never fizzle, right? Lot's of Theurgists think the same thing, and I know a lot who will tell you that it's very possible to fizzle many times in one battle with really good accuracy.


I can understand a chance to fizzle, that's normal. But I have a specific spell in mind that has an 80% success rate (don't ask, I can't remember the name of it), and I can count on one hand the number of times it was successfully cast out of the last 30 - 35 times I've tried casting it. SERIOUSLY! Now you can't possibly tell me that it is NOT broken, that's impossible.


Nothing's impossible when it comes to accuracy. I can't stress that enough. But, if you truly think something is wrong, instead of trying to challenge my views, contact support... That's another thing I cannot stress enough.

Jack Fireheart Level 60 Pyromancer and Retired Stresser

Like that will do any good. If what you are saying is true, and it is random, then tell me how it is that EVERY TIME I get to the last spell, when it's either him or me, I ALWAYS FIZZLE? I have never cast the last spell successfully in that situation. You don't have to bother answering, I'm taking a break from the game. I am sick to death of their broken fizzle rate and I'm going to look for another game to play. If there was a way I could make them give any money back I put into this game, I'd try to, that's how disgusted I am with the high amount of fizzles. Congrats, you lost a customer because you can't figure out what 80% means.

Mastermind
Feb 16, 2009
328
tonym144 wrote:
Superwiz1560 wrote:
tonym144 wrote:
Superwiz1560 wrote:
fireglobe109 wrote:
I agree. I have plus 16 percent for fire and I fizzle more than I did when it was 75%.I fizzled twice in a row even with plus 16%.


You have the chance of fizzling twice in a row on any accuracy under one hundred percent. With 91% accuracy, you think you'd never fizzle, right? Lot's of Theurgists think the same thing, and I know a lot who will tell you that it's very possible to fizzle many times in one battle with really good accuracy.


I can understand a chance to fizzle, that's normal. But I have a specific spell in mind that has an 80% success rate (don't ask, I can't remember the name of it), and I can count on one hand the number of times it was successfully cast out of the last 30 - 35 times I've tried casting it. SERIOUSLY! Now you can't possibly tell me that it is NOT broken, that's impossible.


Nothing's impossible when it comes to accuracy. I can't stress that enough. But, if you truly think something is wrong, instead of trying to challenge my views, contact support... That's another thing I cannot stress enough.

Jack Fireheart Level 60 Pyromancer and Retired Stresser

Like that will do any good. If what you are saying is true, and it is random, then tell me how it is that EVERY TIME I get to the last spell, when it's either him or me, I ALWAYS FIZZLE? I have never cast the last spell successfully in that situation. You don't have to bother answering, I'm taking a break from the game. I am sick to death of their broken fizzle rate and I'm going to look for another game to play. If there was a way I could make them give any money back I put into this game, I'd try to, that's how disgusted I am with the high amount of fizzles. Congrats, you lost a customer because you can't figure out what 80% means.


I know you said not to bother answering, but before you make a decision you may regret later, take this into consideration:

Are you really going to quit W101 over a game mechanic? Do you think you're the only one who fizzles? It happens to all of us at one point or another. And yes, it is frustrating when you fizzle more than nice in a battle, or in a row. I've had times like you, when it seemed that I would never stop fizzling, and I've had the same curse that you had; my finishing spell seemed to always fizzle unless it was a wand spell. But it has never been as serious an issue to me as you're MAKING it. I'm not going to try and stop you from quitting, but know that if you do, KI won't lose sleep over it, for two reasons.

1. In the amount of time it took you to quit, 10-20 more eager Wizards just subscribed.

2. It's your own fault for getting so worked up over something that happens to everybody.

Plus, even if there IS something wrong with the program that W101 uses for accuracy, do you really think you'll feel any better once it's fixed? Because I don't like repeating myself, I'll just quote.

Superwiz1560 wrote:
I could send a ticket into CS and they could assure me that they're looking into it, but even if there is a glitch in the RNG or whatever W101 uses for their accuracy program, and it gets fixed, the fact won't change that chain fizzling is still possible. Nothing short of pitching fizzling altogether would relieve our frustration over chain fizzling, so the only possible thing to do would be to suck it up, take a trip to the Fairegrounds and move on.


And that bit at the end when you tried to mock KI for this 'bug', is really off-base. How long do you think this game has been successful? If KI 'couldn't figure out what 80% means', don't you think there'd be MORE than two people complaining on your thread?

So, if you're going to quit, quit. Bon voyage, for all I care. But once you zoom out, look at the big picture, and see that you only have yourself to blame, you will regret the decision. And who knows, you may decide to come back, then everybody wins. :P

Jack Fireheart Level 60 Pyromancer and Unsure of What to Use as a Tagline

Survivor
Mar 05, 2011
31
Superwiz1560 wrote:
darthjt wrote:
Superwiz1560 wrote:
goldendragon18 wrote:
Ok. I have read all of the above, but I have to agree that Fizzle rate is out of wack.


It's starting to get really annoying when someone starts talking about a rise in the fizzle rate when there's no such thing. It's called 'accuracy'. A Centaur has a 90% chance of success. What does that leave? A 10% chance of a fizzle. There is no 'rate'. A rate would imply that in a set number of casts, this many will succeed and this many will fizzle, which is not the case.

Now, if your shields or blades start fizzling, contact support. Don't blame 'the fizzle rate'. Just contact customer support and they will look into the problem. It's that simple.

And fizzling four times in a row CAN happen more than once in a blue moon. It's happened to my Pyromancer, my Diviner, and my Necromancer, all more than once.

And when you say Auras, do you mean the DOT Auras like Fre Elf and Frostbite, or the Astral Auras from the Star School. If it's the latter, yeah, that's a problem. All Astral spells have 100% accuracy unless hit with a Smokescreen or a Black Mantle. If that isn't the case, like I said above, contact support.

But if you really feel that, even though you're probably unlucky, something is wrong, I repeat, contact support. They'll be a lot more friendly towards you than some people on this forum who are getting sick and tired of hearing the same false excuses over and over again.

You are half-right about one thing, though. Percentages do not completely apply to your accuracy. Luck plays a bigger role.

Jack Fireheart Level 60 Pyromancer and Rabbit's Foot Hunter


Annoyed? Annoying is having 99% Accuracy and then fizzling 3 times in a row, then finally the spell works, then in the next battle, fizzling 2 more times. So that, out of 7 times casting only 2 work successfully with a 99% accuracy. No black mantles were used, or any negatives of any kind. Does this mean that the next 300 times I cast have been accurate? No, I have fizzled many times since then.

I am sorry, but your bad luck, good luck, is the wrong concept. I don't care how many times you look at it, if you take 99 blue marbles and 1 red marble, you could spend your entire life trying to put out 1 red marble 3 times in a row and it probably will never happen. And if it Ever DID happen, there is no way, out of 7 times you would pull it twice more!

So, say what you will, but something is wrong and that IS my opinion!


True, and I respect your opinion and agree with your facts and figures. But the point I was trying to make was that sometimes, you get what you get, and if I fizzle four times in a row, yeah I'll get miffed. Who wouldn't? But more likely than not, there's nothing I, or anyone else can do about it. I could send a ticket into CS and they could assure me that they're looking into it, but even if there is a glitch in the RNG or whatever W101 uses for their accuracy program, and it gets fixed, the fact won't change that chain fizzling is still possible. Nothing short of pitching fizzling altogether would relieve our frustration over chain fizzling, so the only possible thing to do would be to suck it up, take a trip to the Fairegrounds and move on.

Jack Fireheart Level 60 Pyromancer and Anti-Fizzle Crusader


Ok then, I agree. Let's pitch fizzle altogether and change it to something more reasonable. Instead of a 90% chance the spell will cast successfully, how about something like a 90% chance the spell will do regular damage, a 5% chance the spell will do half damage and a 5% chance the spell will do double damage. That way there is no fizzle, but you don't have a 100% chance. If you have a chance to do double damage, then you offset the times when you do half damage. I would much rather see something like that than a complete fizzle.

2