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Accuracy is just flawed.

1
AuthorMessage
Mastermind
Jun 10, 2011
328
My Balance has 89% accuracy. He fizzles at the rate of a newbie storm.
My life has 93% accuracy. He fizzles at the rate of an ice or myth.
My ice has 88% accuracy. She fizzles at the rate a fire.

I think some of the math is flawed. My balance should only fizzle 11 spells out of 100. I counted up to 100 spells used, and fizzled 24 times.

Defender
Jul 27, 2011
115
The Spiral Twister on Mar 23, 2014 wrote:
My Balance has 89% accuracy. He fizzles at the rate of a newbie storm.
My life has 93% accuracy. He fizzles at the rate of an ice or myth.
My ice has 88% accuracy. She fizzles at the rate a fire.

I think some of the math is flawed. My balance should only fizzle 11 spells out of 100. I counted up to 100 spells used, and fizzled 24 times.
You're just having bad luck, sadly. It isn't accuracy based on number of spells used, it is accuracy based on the spell at the time and only that spell. In other words, you cast a spell and there is an 11% chance it will fizzle, just unlucky for you, that 11% happens a lot.

Hope that made sense,
Seth NightFlame95

Adherent
Jul 03, 2010
2638
The Spiral Twister on Mar 23, 2014 wrote:
My Balance has 89% accuracy. He fizzles at the rate of a newbie storm.
My life has 93% accuracy. He fizzles at the rate of an ice or myth.
My ice has 88% accuracy. She fizzles at the rate a fire.

I think some of the math is flawed. My balance should only fizzle 11 spells out of 100. I counted up to 100 spells used, and fizzled 24 times.
I noticed a problem with the fizzle rate a while back when my Life wizard started to fizzle quite regular - something I wasn't really used to. When playing my Balance it got so bad while doing regular mob fights in Pitch Black Lake the Death in first fizzled, my Balance Fizzled and the Storm on the end didn't and defeated them. I finally got to the point where I just buffed the Storm and didn't bother casting any damage spells and finally stopped questing with that wizard. It was almost a given that the Death would blade up and fizzle on the first damage spell cast every fight.

Certain schools it's easier to build some accuracy in then others so now the Ice I currently took though Azteca does seem to fizzle less then my Balance did and the Death I quest with.

All I know is the harder game play gets the harder it is to deal with fails like this. I am glad for the go back feature though as we been working that more as a easy way to get back in battles when defeated because of these random fizzles, it also makes reshuffle unneeded but we are buying vials a lot more often.

Astrologist
Jun 04, 2010
1008
The Spiral Twister on Mar 23, 2014 wrote:
My Balance has 89% accuracy. He fizzles at the rate of a newbie storm.
My life has 93% accuracy. He fizzles at the rate of an ice or myth.
My ice has 88% accuracy. She fizzles at the rate a fire.

I think some of the math is flawed. My balance should only fizzle 11 spells out of 100. I counted up to 100 spells used, and fizzled 24 times.
If you were to roll a 100 sided die, what are the odds you would roll a 5? Now roll it again, what are the odds that you will roll another 5? Sadly, its always 1 in 100. While I appreciate that you are taking the time to note how often you fizzle, your sample size (100 spells) just isn't large enough to see the statistical relevance. It would need to be a couple of orders of magnitude larger and correct for non-school and 100% accuracy spells. You are just having an unlucky streak. The human brain is an "exception based" processor. In other words, we tend to notice when things are NOT normal... as such we fixate on things that are negative such as fizzle. The biggest issue you are having right now is psychological and the best thing for it is a break. Try taking a week off of wizzy. When I have these (and I do), I take a break for a week or so and come back. More often then not, I "feel" that my luck changes.

Defender
Jul 21, 2010
120
gtarhannon on Mar 25, 2014 wrote:
If you were to roll a 100 sided die, what are the odds you would roll a 5? Now roll it again, what are the odds that you will roll another 5? Sadly, its always 1 in 100. While I appreciate that you are taking the time to note how often you fizzle, your sample size (100 spells) just isn't large enough to see the statistical relevance. It would need to be a couple of orders of magnitude larger and correct for non-school and 100% accuracy spells. You are just having an unlucky streak. The human brain is an "exception based" processor. In other words, we tend to notice when things are NOT normal... as such we fixate on things that are negative such as fizzle. The biggest issue you are having right now is psychological and the best thing for it is a break. Try taking a week off of wizzy. When I have these (and I do), I take a break for a week or so and come back. More often then not, I "feel" that my luck changes.
Actually, the chance of rolling two 5's in a row on a 100 sided die is 1 in 10,000....

Because 100 different possibilities times another 100 possibilities (100x100) is 10,000 different possibilities. Therefore, the possibility that you would roll to 5's in a row 1 in 10,000. I know, I know. Not the point of the thread but, I just wanted to point it out.

-Morgan Legendheart, level 52 (Eighth grade math student)

Adherent
Feb 07, 2011
2920
a few of us have speculated as well that accuracy numbers don't actually add: they subtract from your fizzle chance.

someone once explained how this works. so, if i remember correctly, he said that if your base accuracy is 85%, a 7% boost to accuracy does not mean that your accuracy is now 92%; it simply means that your chance of fizzling is 8%, instead of 15% (just as 102% accuracy is actually 99.999999%).

if that's the case, then i'd really like to know what school the math whizzes at ki went to~ if i had gone there, i might have done okay in math and gotten my ph.d in making up stuff 101.

-von "85% of statistics are made up on the spot" shadowsong
(grow up, math: solve your own problems)


Mastermind
Jun 10, 2011
328
gtarhannon on Mar 25, 2014 wrote:
If you were to roll a 100 sided die, what are the odds you would roll a 5? Now roll it again, what are the odds that you will roll another 5? Sadly, its always 1 in 100. While I appreciate that you are taking the time to note how often you fizzle, your sample size (100 spells) just isn't large enough to see the statistical relevance. It would need to be a couple of orders of magnitude larger and correct for non-school and 100% accuracy spells. You are just having an unlucky streak. The human brain is an "exception based" processor. In other words, we tend to notice when things are NOT normal... as such we fixate on things that are negative such as fizzle. The biggest issue you are having right now is psychological and the best thing for it is a break. Try taking a week off of wizzy. When I have these (and I do), I take a break for a week or so and come back. More often then not, I "feel" that my luck changes.
Oh, by the way, I only counted the 85% accuracy spells, and my 90% Availing Hands spell (seeing it fizzles quite often, too)

And I might just take a week break from this game- when my membership ends, though. I have 1 month and a half left of it. And also, just recently I came back from a 3-month break. (I came back 1 month ago)

Also, I noticed I am super lucky on my fire. He has NO accuracy boosts and only fizzles occasionally (for a fire, that is)

(new!)

Explorer
Aug 06, 2008
71
The math isn't flawed, its just bad luck. However it is important to note that even when you exceed 100% accuracy, you can still fizzle. I've had a balance with over 100% accuracy and still fizzled on a very rare occasion. I think this is because it might max out at 99% regardless of what it says your accuracy is, the same goes for power pips.
-Adam Seafist

Delver
Feb 28, 2012
230
gtarhannon on Mar 25, 2014 wrote:
If you were to roll a 100 sided die, what are the odds you would roll a 5? Now roll it again, what are the odds that you will roll another 5? Sadly, its always 1 in 100. While I appreciate that you are taking the time to note how often you fizzle, your sample size (100 spells) just isn't large enough to see the statistical relevance. It would need to be a couple of orders of magnitude larger and correct for non-school and 100% accuracy spells. You are just having an unlucky streak. The human brain is an "exception based" processor. In other words, we tend to notice when things are NOT normal... as such we fixate on things that are negative such as fizzle. The biggest issue you are having right now is psychological and the best thing for it is a break. Try taking a week off of wizzy. When I have these (and I do), I take a break for a week or so and come back. More often then not, I "feel" that my luck changes.
Taking your example one step further: what are the odds of shaking a five twice in a row: (1/100) x (1/100) = (1/10,000). That means I should barely ever see double fizzles, but in the game triple, quadruple (four times), and even quintuple (five times) fizzles are quite common.

Astrologist
Jun 04, 2010
1008
Rainbow0839 on Mar 25, 2014 wrote:
Actually, the chance of rolling two 5's in a row on a 100 sided die is 1 in 10,000....

Because 100 different possibilities times another 100 possibilities (100x100) is 10,000 different possibilities. Therefore, the possibility that you would roll to 5's in a row 1 in 10,000. I know, I know. Not the point of the thread but, I just wanted to point it out.

-Morgan Legendheart, level 52 (Eighth grade math student)
You're missing my point. What I'm trying to get accross is that on any given roll of a 100 sided die, the odds of pulling a particular number are always 1 in 100 because you are looking for one particular outcome in a random situation with 100 possible outcomes. Statistical odds (such as card accuracy numbers) are often misused in our society today. Those odds are only accurate within the sample size and could be skewed by pockets of results. In other words, if you sampled Washington state and found that 33.33% of people there get cancer, it would be accurate to say 1 in 3 people in washington state get cancer. However, that could because of 1 particular county (we'll say Pierce). Perhaps 72.5% of people in Pierce county get cancer. If I happen to grab 3 random people off the street in Thurston county, it would absolutely NOT be accurate to assume that 1 of them would get cancer. Fizzling 4 times in a row is not a statistically valid indicator of the accuracy numbers being "broken". In fact, I'm pretty sure that I read a post in these forums from way, way back in the day where it was explained that KI actually programatically increases your accuracy every time you fizzle so that you cannot fizzle indefintely. I personally don't believe I have ever fizzled more than 4 times in a row (and I can count those on one hand. I typically fizzle no more than 3 times in a row) which is statistically unlikely if it was a purely random number generating system.

What this all boils down to is that the poster is essentially "unlucky", but that doesn't mean anything is broken, that KI programmers can't do math, or that someone fiddled with the "fizzle rate".

Astrologist
Jun 04, 2010
1008
The Spiral Twister on Mar 25, 2014 wrote:
Oh, by the way, I only counted the 85% accuracy spells, and my 90% Availing Hands spell (seeing it fizzles quite often, too)

And I might just take a week break from this game- when my membership ends, though. I have 1 month and a half left of it. And also, just recently I came back from a 3-month break. (I came back 1 month ago)

Also, I noticed I am super lucky on my fire. He has NO accuracy boosts and only fizzles occasionally (for a fire, that is)

(new!)
A break is often the best ting... When I'm doing a lot of battles (at least ones that matter to me), I find I get distracted and that calls into question the accuracy of my statistics. Humans are psychologically much more likely to report events that are negative in conotation rather than positive which is why in my early days while still trying to figure out the play system here, I made all my statistical observations and notes while watching my kids play. Of all the programming criticisms I have leveled at KI (and there have been many, feel free to search these forums for posts from me on the topic), proper random number generation has never been one of them. Ironically, mentioning that you are luckier than expected on your fire actually lends credence to the idea that KI is using a sufficiently random number generating system.

Astrologist
Jun 04, 2010
1008
grahambhg on Mar 26, 2014 wrote:
Taking your example one step further: what are the odds of shaking a five twice in a row: (1/100) x (1/100) = (1/10,000). That means I should barely ever see double fizzles, but in the game triple, quadruple (four times), and even quintuple (five times) fizzles are quite common.
How are you drawing this conclusion? The purpose of my example was to illustrate that no specific event is bounded by any previous event. Even if I didn't make myself clear on that point, there is nothing in the above quote illustrative of "I should barely ever see double fizzles". Just using standard probability equations on 85% accuracy would mean there are 15 possible outcomes out of 100 per event that would result in fizzle. Therefore, the odds of fizzling twice in a row are actually (15/100) to the second power or 225 in 10,000. In fact, the odds of fizzling 6 times in a row are surprising high at 11,390,625 in 1,000,000,000,000. Considering the number of players, the number of casts per battle, and taking into account all the monster cast events, a better question is why have I never seen anyone pose this fizzle question while complaining about fizzling 6 or even 7 times in a row? Statistically speaking, that SHOULD happen at some point. If you will refer to my previous post in this thread, I believe I make mention of a post from KI explaining that they programatically improve your odds every time you fizzle so that you cannont have very long strings of misses. What that means is that however frustrated you may get with fizzle, it would be worse if KI wasn't actually minimizing the impact of true randomality on you.

Geographer
Aug 28, 2010
953
gtarhannon on Mar 25, 2014 wrote:
If you were to roll a 100 sided die, what are the odds you would roll a 5? Now roll it again, what are the odds that you will roll another 5? Sadly, its always 1 in 100. While I appreciate that you are taking the time to note how often you fizzle, your sample size (100 spells) just isn't large enough to see the statistical relevance. It would need to be a couple of orders of magnitude larger and correct for non-school and 100% accuracy spells. You are just having an unlucky streak. The human brain is an "exception based" processor. In other words, we tend to notice when things are NOT normal... as such we fixate on things that are negative such as fizzle. The biggest issue you are having right now is psychological and the best thing for it is a break. Try taking a week off of wizzy. When I have these (and I do), I take a break for a week or so and come back. More often then not, I "feel" that my luck changes.
gtar,

I had to rub my eyes twice, you are still on the boards, I was amazed when I saw your post.

I understand that we fixate on the negatives, and that is exactly why I kept track of my
fizzles on Weakness. I kept track of casting Weakness, with my Balance at 97% accuracy.
Over 500 times, and I had expected it to even out somewhere close to 97%, or even 93%.
Not the case, I was at 84%, at the 500 mark, clearly to low. I felt that 500 was a reasonable
mark to set, to be close to 97%, but maybe I'm wrong.
Either way, I have noticed patterens in the game, where I fizzle in certain dungeons, in
certain places, like Hades, over and over. It's almost as if the fizzle is designed in,
and often 3 of 4 players will fizzle in a row, some with 98% accuracy.

Once while in Hades, I fizzled three times in a row, at 97% accuracy, what are the odds of that?
I understand your point on the die, but I have often wondered if your luck in the game is not based on
statistical facts.

Astrologist
Oct 22, 2011
1073
I don't have a Life wizard, so I can't relate to the fizzle rate there, but, I do have a Death and Balance, which fizzle more than any of my other schools, which includes Ice, Storm, Fire, and Myth (with and without accuracy boosts). Things just don't add up, per se. You have to understand, that KI has some interesting math techniques that don't always relate to the real world. To KI, 1+1 does not necessarily equal 2.

I have kept a mental note of accuracy vs fizzles for a long long time. What I have noticed even more recently, is that my wizards are fizzling even MORE now than ever before, especially my Balance and Ice (not my Death, since I made sure to do an uber accuracy boost, so he rarely fizzles now).

While I was traversing through Khrysalis with my Ice, I fizzled more than I ever had before. Even with accuracy at 86%, there were battles when I would fizzle 5 times in a row! This happened more than once, which my Ice never had a problem like this.

Who knows. Base accuracy (without boosts, for example) might be 85%, but it acts more like 50%.

Brynn IceBlade

Just the ing on the cake.

Astrologist
Jun 04, 2010
1008
Veracity8 on Mar 27, 2014 wrote:
gtar,

I had to rub my eyes twice, you are still on the boards, I was amazed when I saw your post.

I understand that we fixate on the negatives, and that is exactly why I kept track of my
fizzles on Weakness. I kept track of casting Weakness, with my Balance at 97% accuracy.
Over 500 times, and I had expected it to even out somewhere close to 97%, or even 93%.
Not the case, I was at 84%, at the 500 mark, clearly to low. I felt that 500 was a reasonable
mark to set, to be close to 97%, but maybe I'm wrong.
Either way, I have noticed patterens in the game, where I fizzle in certain dungeons, in
certain places, like Hades, over and over. It's almost as if the fizzle is designed in,
and often 3 of 4 players will fizzle in a row, some with 98% accuracy.

Once while in Hades, I fizzled three times in a row, at 97% accuracy, what are the odds of that?
I understand your point on the die, but I have often wondered if your luck in the game is not based on
statistical facts.
Hey Veracity8. Less "still on the boards", more "recently rejoined". :D I went crowns only quite a long time ago, dropped out of the game completely for over a year, then couldn't post again until after I made a crowns purchase recently.

I hear what you're saying about this whole conversation but no matter how you slice it, it still boils down to bad luck. I will say that given the likely architecure of the game and the possibilities for actually generating real random numbers with computers in the first place (its actually a LOT harder to get truly random numbers electronically than you would think, but then again the same thing can be said about rolling dice as humans tend to form "muscle memory" and reroll in very similar ways thus forming statistically relevant rolling patterns) your "randomness" could be affected by the population of the game in general and your realm in particular. On a statistically distributive scale, load on the system could end up "breaking bad" in your direction in terms of "randomness" during particular times and realms... but that's really a kind of luck all in itself.

What I have been trying to get across in all this (and I admit I may be failing) is that probability in general is only a logical construct for helping humans make "educated" guesses in situations with unpredictable (random) outcomes. When it is said the spell has say, 80% accuracy it means that as the number of casts approaches infinity you will definitely (all things being equal in a truely random system) see a pattern of 80% success. In this context, more samples is always more accurate. When I say more, I mean a lot more. I don't have hard figures in front of me so this is a complete guess, but I'm thinking you really need to start around 10,000 casts collected from different realms and times of day for the statistical relevance to really manifest. It really feels well beyond the scope of this thread to be trying to explain this in such great detail... so feel free to tell me to stop at any time.

Bottom line is... I have been both up and down on my luck here in the spiral, just like the real world. When I first made my storm wizard, I fizzled FAR less often than my ice had (and at the time it was a level 50 on the then "final" world of dragonspyre with lots of accuracy boost. ;D) until, ironically, I added about 5% of storm accuracy with gear. At that point, I died a lot. My luck stayed like that for about a month. The moral of this story is that if you consider all the times you have been hitting substantially above accuracy as well as below... you'll even out, so again, as the number of casts approaches infinity. What I really need to do to determine if something is broken, however, is to pull out my life wizard again who has 100% accuracy. Once I achieved that, I never once fizzled a life spell again but I've read posts recently from people claiming to have 102% accuracy that fizzle. If that is actually the case, then perhaps something changed.

Astrologist
Jun 04, 2010
1008
Veracity8 on Mar 27, 2014 wrote:
gtar,

I had to rub my eyes twice, you are still on the boards, I was amazed when I saw your post.

I understand that we fixate on the negatives, and that is exactly why I kept track of my
fizzles on Weakness. I kept track of casting Weakness, with my Balance at 97% accuracy.
Over 500 times, and I had expected it to even out somewhere close to 97%, or even 93%.
Not the case, I was at 84%, at the 500 mark, clearly to low. I felt that 500 was a reasonable
mark to set, to be close to 97%, but maybe I'm wrong.
Either way, I have noticed patterens in the game, where I fizzle in certain dungeons, in
certain places, like Hades, over and over. It's almost as if the fizzle is designed in,
and often 3 of 4 players will fizzle in a row, some with 98% accuracy.

Once while in Hades, I fizzled three times in a row, at 97% accuracy, what are the odds of that?
I understand your point on the die, but I have often wondered if your luck in the game is not based on
statistical facts.
One last note... I skipped this bit in my previous reply (I think I liked the old posting system better, btw). The last sentence where you said:

"I understand your point on the die, but I have often wondered if your luck in the game is not based on statistical facts."

The thing about the way you have it stated is that its logically backward. Statistics are used to model luck and to try to make educated guesses... so the statistical facts are only facts if they are based on the luck and not the other way round. If an outcome is possible, no matter the odds, then it can (and often does) happen. In a previous post in this thread I actually talked about the odds of fizzling 6 times in a row at 85% accuracy... but I have never seen nor heard anyonce complain about fizzling that many times in a row, despite how possible it is. That alone demonstrates that KI has skewed reality in the player's favor...

Quick food for thought that may also help in regard to understanding the flaws inherent in probability and statistics... Can it be said that you are actually fizzling 3 times "in a row" if there are spell casts from others (such as monsters) in between all of your attempts? Incidentally, the odds of fizzling 3 times in a row at 97% accuracy are 27 in 1,000,000. Read another way, all that it really means is that there are 27 outcomes in 1,000,000 possible combinations which result in failure... not that it shouldn't happen. Is this helping at all?

Archon
Sep 17, 2012
4113
gtarhannon on Mar 27, 2014 wrote:
Hey Veracity8. Less "still on the boards", more "recently rejoined". :D I went crowns only quite a long time ago, dropped out of the game completely for over a year, then couldn't post again until after I made a crowns purchase recently.

I hear what you're saying about this whole conversation but no matter how you slice it, it still boils down to bad luck. I will say that given the likely architecure of the game and the possibilities for actually generating real random numbers with computers in the first place (its actually a LOT harder to get truly random numbers electronically than you would think, but then again the same thing can be said about rolling dice as humans tend to form "muscle memory" and reroll in very similar ways thus forming statistically relevant rolling patterns) your "randomness" could be affected by the population of the game in general and your realm in particular. On a statistically distributive scale, load on the system could end up "breaking bad" in your direction in terms of "randomness" during particular times and realms... but that's really a kind of luck all in itself.

What I have been trying to get across in all this (and I admit I may be failing) is that probability in general is only a logical construct for helping humans make "educated" guesses in situations with unpredictable (random) outcomes. When it is said the spell has say, 80% accuracy it means that as the number of casts approaches infinity you will definitely (all things being equal in a truely random system) see a pattern of 80% success. In this context, more samples is always more accurate. When I say more, I mean a lot more. I don't have hard figures in front of me so this is a complete guess, but I'm thinking you really need to start around 10,000 casts collected from different realms and times of day for the statistical relevance to really manifest. It really feels well beyond the scope of this thread to be trying to explain this in such great detail... so feel free to tell me to stop at any time.

Bottom line is... I have been both up and down on my luck here in the spiral, just like the real world. When I first made my storm wizard, I fizzled FAR less often than my ice had (and at the time it was a level 50 on the then "final" world of dragonspyre with lots of accuracy boost. ;D) until, ironically, I added about 5% of storm accuracy with gear. At that point, I died a lot. My luck stayed like that for about a month. The moral of this story is that if you consider all the times you have been hitting substantially above accuracy as well as below... you'll even out, so again, as the number of casts approaches infinity. What I really need to do to determine if something is broken, however, is to pull out my life wizard again who has 100% accuracy. Once I achieved that, I never once fizzled a life spell again but I've read posts recently from people claiming to have 102% accuracy that fizzle. If that is actually the case, then perhaps something changed.
You are making the assumption that Accuracy % boosts add directly to the % of the spell accuracy. That's just an assumption based on no real fact. 80% spell accuracy means 20% fizzle rate. Adding +20% accuracy from gear doesn't neccessarily mean you have 100% success rate. It could just as easily mean you have 20% less fizzle rate making that 80% into 84% NOT 100%. Since we don't have access to the coding that KI uses for it, there's no possible way to make the assumptions you do. There also may be a base rate that we aren't privvy to. Assuming that because a card says 80% and you have +20% accuracy equals 100% accuracy is completely false.

Defender
Jul 27, 2011
115
gtarhannon on Mar 27, 2014 wrote:
Hey Veracity8. Less "still on the boards", more "recently rejoined". :D I went crowns only quite a long time ago, dropped out of the game completely for over a year, then couldn't post again until after I made a crowns purchase recently.

I hear what you're saying about this whole conversation but no matter how you slice it, it still boils down to bad luck. I will say that given the likely architecure of the game and the possibilities for actually generating real random numbers with computers in the first place (its actually a LOT harder to get truly random numbers electronically than you would think, but then again the same thing can be said about rolling dice as humans tend to form "muscle memory" and reroll in very similar ways thus forming statistically relevant rolling patterns) your "randomness" could be affected by the population of the game in general and your realm in particular. On a statistically distributive scale, load on the system could end up "breaking bad" in your direction in terms of "randomness" during particular times and realms... but that's really a kind of luck all in itself.

What I have been trying to get across in all this (and I admit I may be failing) is that probability in general is only a logical construct for helping humans make "educated" guesses in situations with unpredictable (random) outcomes. When it is said the spell has say, 80% accuracy it means that as the number of casts approaches infinity you will definitely (all things being equal in a truely random system) see a pattern of 80% success. In this context, more samples is always more accurate. When I say more, I mean a lot more. I don't have hard figures in front of me so this is a complete guess, but I'm thinking you really need to start around 10,000 casts collected from different realms and times of day for the statistical relevance to really manifest. It really feels well beyond the scope of this thread to be trying to explain this in such great detail... so feel free to tell me to stop at any time.

Bottom line is... I have been both up and down on my luck here in the spiral, just like the real world. When I first made my storm wizard, I fizzled FAR less often than my ice had (and at the time it was a level 50 on the then "final" world of dragonspyre with lots of accuracy boost. ;D) until, ironically, I added about 5% of storm accuracy with gear. At that point, I died a lot. My luck stayed like that for about a month. The moral of this story is that if you consider all the times you have been hitting substantially above accuracy as well as below... you'll even out, so again, as the number of casts approaches infinity. What I really need to do to determine if something is broken, however, is to pull out my life wizard again who has 100% accuracy. Once I achieved that, I never once fizzled a life spell again but I've read posts recently from people claiming to have 102% accuracy that fizzle. If that is actually the case, then perhaps something changed.
I can see why you have nearly 900 posts now. 3 in a row plus another 1-2 on one thread.

Anyway, you're making sense to me :)

Astrologist
Jun 04, 2010
1008
Mello Lily on Mar 27, 2014 wrote:
I can see why you have nearly 900 posts now. 3 in a row plus another 1-2 on one thread.

Anyway, you're making sense to me :)
Well, starting my posting "career" several years ago doesn't hurt either. ;) And good... I hope I'm helping.

Astrologist
Jun 04, 2010
1008
seethe42 on Mar 27, 2014 wrote:
You are making the assumption that Accuracy % boosts add directly to the % of the spell accuracy. That's just an assumption based on no real fact. 80% spell accuracy means 20% fizzle rate. Adding +20% accuracy from gear doesn't neccessarily mean you have 100% success rate. It could just as easily mean you have 20% less fizzle rate making that 80% into 84% NOT 100%. Since we don't have access to the coding that KI uses for it, there's no possible way to make the assumptions you do. There also may be a base rate that we aren't privvy to. Assuming that because a card says 80% and you have +20% accuracy equals 100% accuracy is completely false.
The asusmptions I have made are based on a couple of things. First, in the past when I have taken my life wizard over 100% accuracy, I never once missed a life spell cast again unless I had been hit with black mantle or some other accuracy reducing spell. Second, it would be frankly a bit silly for accuracy spells not to be additive given what a tiny percentage they have. Finally, when I stacked accuracy reducers totalling more than 100% on myself, I have never successfully cast a spell. I did so to test a theory I presented in this thread:

https://www.wizard101.com/forum/player-vs-player/earthquakestun-blockno-more-stun-block-32856?fromSearchResult=false&page=2

If I dust off my life wizard and make certain that the character still has more than 10% accuracy boost to life spells and further that I continue to never miss then yes, it is safe to assume that it is additive and that my assumptions are still correct.

Astrologist
Jun 04, 2010
1008
seethe42 on Mar 27, 2014 wrote:
You are making the assumption that Accuracy % boosts add directly to the % of the spell accuracy. That's just an assumption based on no real fact. 80% spell accuracy means 20% fizzle rate. Adding +20% accuracy from gear doesn't neccessarily mean you have 100% success rate. It could just as easily mean you have 20% less fizzle rate making that 80% into 84% NOT 100%. Since we don't have access to the coding that KI uses for it, there's no possible way to make the assumptions you do. There also may be a base rate that we aren't privvy to. Assuming that because a card says 80% and you have +20% accuracy equals 100% accuracy is completely false.
Hey again seethe42 (like your name btw, assuming its a reference to Hitchhiker's guide):

For the good of the order, I went through all my old notes on accuracy in this game. I had forgotten about this, but I once ran this test:

-Balance with +6% global accuracy from pet
-Practice PvP test with one of my other wizards
-Balance casts precision, scarab, repeat...
-Reshuffled when out of cards (back when reshuffle reshuffled itself)

Ran 200 iterations

0% miss, 100% cast

Now, this isn't proof that it still works this way... technically it isn't proof that it ever worked that way as I could have simply been extremely lucky... however, when combined with the experience of never missing a life spell again after adding +10% accuracy on my life wizard, I had at the time felt pretty confident that what I had claimed above was accurate.

Archon
Sep 17, 2012
4113
@gtarhannon - Yes it is a HHGTTG referrence, you are one of the few to get that. Most people seem to think it's a referrence to the band Seether.

The only reason I bring up the question of how accuracy works is because I noticed on my Storm. I could dress for +31% Accuracy and still (albeit rare) fizzle. 101% without any negative charms on me would make fizzle impossible unless that 31% is not directly added to the 70% spell chance. That lead me to the idea that the 31% is either added to some base chance that we cannot see or that it is reflected by lowering the fizzle chance by that %. Another way it could be is +31% could work exactly like blades. 70% + 31% = .7 x 1.31 = .917 = 91.7%

We don't know the exact math that KI uses in it's programming, but it is clear that percentages don't add directly in most cases. A 30% blade + 40% blade doesn't equal a 70%, it equals 82% because stacked percentages multiply, not add.

Defender
Jul 27, 2011
115
gtarhannon on Mar 28, 2014 wrote:
Hey again seethe42 (like your name btw, assuming its a reference to Hitchhiker's guide):

For the good of the order, I went through all my old notes on accuracy in this game. I had forgotten about this, but I once ran this test:

-Balance with +6% global accuracy from pet
-Practice PvP test with one of my other wizards
-Balance casts precision, scarab, repeat...
-Reshuffled when out of cards (back when reshuffle reshuffled itself)

Ran 200 iterations

0% miss, 100% cast

Now, this isn't proof that it still works this way... technically it isn't proof that it ever worked that way as I could have simply been extremely lucky... however, when combined with the experience of never missing a life spell again after adding +10% accuracy on my life wizard, I had at the time felt pretty confident that what I had claimed above was accurate.
My fire has plus 28% accuracy. Adding that on to the original 75%, he is now at 103%. I do not fizzle at all, and have not since level 60 when I reached this accuracy.

So I can conclude that based on your experience and mine, well, a 100% or over means no possible way to fizzle (unless smoke screen is on a character or something). 100% means no room for error. All my accuracy has plus 20% (other than fire), so my lowest accuracy is 90% for storm. 105% for balance. 110% for life, etc. and I can say this, I never fizzle period, unless I happen to cast a storm spell, and even then, it is near 100%.

So you should have no reason in believing your notes are wrong.

Astrologist
Jun 04, 2010
1008
seethe42 on Mar 29, 2014 wrote:
@gtarhannon - Yes it is a HHGTTG referrence, you are one of the few to get that. Most people seem to think it's a referrence to the band Seether.

The only reason I bring up the question of how accuracy works is because I noticed on my Storm. I could dress for +31% Accuracy and still (albeit rare) fizzle. 101% without any negative charms on me would make fizzle impossible unless that 31% is not directly added to the 70% spell chance. That lead me to the idea that the 31% is either added to some base chance that we cannot see or that it is reflected by lowering the fizzle chance by that %. Another way it could be is +31% could work exactly like blades. 70% + 31% = .7 x 1.31 = .917 = 91.7%

We don't know the exact math that KI uses in it's programming, but it is clear that percentages don't add directly in most cases. A 30% blade + 40% blade doesn't equal a 70%, it equals 82% because stacked percentages multiply, not add.
I have a question regarding how you achieved your accuracy boost. Does it involve pets? The reason I ask is because I have noticed (mathematically when calculating damage) that there is apparently some rounding going on with damage boost on pets (from a visual standpoint). It is actually possible, depending on how you achieved your accuracy, that you are showing 101% visually (due to rounding) but in reality are just shy of 100% (annoying, I both know and agree). I ran some tests with my life (accuracy achieved completely through gear) since the last time I posted here and I haven't fizzled yet.

The bottom line here is that from what I can tell, the percentages listed on pets are actually rounded and the actual point values calculated from your pet stats is what gets applied. The other possibility is that a bug has been introduced. You are correct though, we don't have access to their programming methodology but we do know a few things that are not multiples. For instance, absorbs and armor piercing are subtractive and damage boosting (such as colossal and gargantuan) are additive. We also know that power pip chance is literally the chance to see a power pip because it can be seen to readily improve as you go from no chance to high chance. If the programming were to work as you say, then I would immediately take issues with all the accuracy spells in the game. That would make any school who gets an accuracy booster spell ridiculously unbalanced against any school receiving accuracy reduction as all the boosters I can think of are only 10%... namely lighting strike for storm, precision for balance, and guidance for life.

Hero
Dec 16, 2009
772
seethe42 on Mar 29, 2014 wrote:
@gtarhannon - Yes it is a HHGTTG referrence, you are one of the few to get that. Most people seem to think it's a referrence to the band Seether.

The only reason I bring up the question of how accuracy works is because I noticed on my Storm. I could dress for +31% Accuracy and still (albeit rare) fizzle. 101% without any negative charms on me would make fizzle impossible unless that 31% is not directly added to the 70% spell chance. That lead me to the idea that the 31% is either added to some base chance that we cannot see or that it is reflected by lowering the fizzle chance by that %. Another way it could be is +31% could work exactly like blades. 70% + 31% = .7 x 1.31 = .917 = 91.7%

We don't know the exact math that KI uses in it's programming, but it is clear that percentages don't add directly in most cases. A 30% blade + 40% blade doesn't equal a 70%, it equals 82% because stacked percentages multiply, not add.
This may be due to the fact that some of KI's numbers round when displayed but when calculated the unrounded value is used. This can be seen in pets that display 10% spell proof but in actuality only have 9%. This is also sometimes seen in attacks. I remember one incident where I had 70% attack boost, yet when I hit with an unenchanted insane bolt it hit at 1689 suggesting that one of my pets or pieces of gear gave a decimal value that was being displayed as it's rounded rather than true value. This may be what is occurring with your accuracy. Is the 31% accuracy gained via pet talents and if so does your pet have a 250*5 spread or are some of your pet stats less than 250?

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