Welcome to the Wizard101 Message Boards

gtarhannon on Mar 27, 2014 wrote:

One last note... I skipped this bit in my previous reply (I think I liked the old posting system better, btw). The last sentence where you said:

"I understand your point on the die, but I have often wondered if your luck in the game is not based on statistical facts."

The thing about the way you have it stated is that its logically backward. Statistics are used to model luck and to try to make educated guesses... so the statistical facts are only facts if they are based on the luck and not the other way round. If an outcome is possible, no matter the odds, then it can (and often does) happen. In a previous post in this thread I actually talked about the odds of fizzling 6 times in a row at 85% accuracy... but I have never seen nor heard anyonce complain about fizzling that many times in a row, despite how possible it is. That alone demonstrates that KI has skewed reality in the player's favor...

Quick food for thought that may also help in regard to understanding the flaws inherent in probability and statistics... Can it be said that you are actually fizzling 3 times "in a row" if there are spell casts from others (such as monsters) in between all of your attempts? Incidentally, the odds of fizzling 3 times in a row at 97% accuracy are 27 in 1,000,000. Read another way, all that it really means is that there are 27 outcomes in 1,000,000 possible combinations which result in failure... not that it shouldn't happen. Is this helping at all?

Hi Gtar,

Yes, I understand what you are saying, it all makes perfect sense. What I was trying to say,
in the wrong way, was I think KI forces fizzles on you, at times. That's why the averages
seem to be off or often lower then they should be. I say this because, at times,
the fizzle rate doesn't make sense. Case in point, my Balance at 97%, a life at 98%, and a
death at 96%, all fizzled in a row. Then two of us fizzled in the next turn also, the odds are
so against that happening......
What amazed me, if the next time we went into the Hades dungeon, almost the same thing
happened (in the same battle at about the same round). The odds are so far against that,
it just seemed strange, almost as if it was planned....

Veracity8 on Mar 31, 2014 wrote:

Hi Gtar,

Yes, I understand what you are saying, it all makes perfect sense. What I was trying to say,
in the wrong way, was I think KI forces fizzles on you, at times. That's why the averages
seem to be off or often lower then they should be. I say this because, at times,
the fizzle rate doesn't make sense. Case in point, my Balance at 97%, a life at 98%, and a
death at 96%, all fizzled in a row. Then two of us fizzled in the next turn also, the odds are
so against that happening......
What amazed me, if the next time we went into the Hades dungeon, almost the same thing
happened (in the same battle at about the same round). The odds are so far against that,
it just seemed strange, almost as if it was planned....

I think this is true also. Loremaster is another battle that seems to have an unusually high fizzle rate. I've noticed it with the secret bosses in Aquila also.

Anyone knowing anything about chance and probability sees this one a mile off. Funny how no professor has stepped in yet.

First, there is the accuracy of the spell itself. Different schools being different rates of accuracy. This is seen and easily understood.

Second, what is not seen, nor is easily understood, is individual accuracy. We know that gear/pet talent can increase accuracy of the player, what is not clear is the actual accuracy for zero rating. If we were going based on zero accuracy added, then fizz rate SHOULD be the same in all worlds. Including dungeons. This is not the case. In Azteca, it takes a major leap.

This brings me to world and dungeon settings. There has no doubt been a tweak of some sort to increase fizz rate. In dungeons, double it. One gear set I use has zero accuracy, and I throw a low pip spell at the first of the round to get it over with. It is a fact that I have come to terms with to the point that friends are all to familiar with the term "hey guys, wanna watch me fizz? :D" before I throw the spell. It is just that. A joke. A repetitive lame joke.

Which brings me to the enigma of critical rating. The 'rating' you notice, is not a percent. Does it work? I have seen hades gear outperform the higher level crown gear, although the crown gear has higher accuracy and critical. Hades gear gets critical, and lands it. Level 95 gear gets it less, and it gets blocked.

In short? I smashed my scientific calculator with an unhewn rock. Why? Because according to the way KI calculates things, it is lying to me.

I'm sorry but I have to agree that the accuracy data doesn't add up properly, being unlucky is one thing, but when a level 4 spell fizzles more than it casts at 80% accuracy with another 5% boost there is something wrong with how the accuracy is being figured. I don't know if it is a glitch that happened with all the changes KI programmers have been doing, or there was a change to the original accuracy percentage that they didn't change the card for, but less than 50% is no where near 85% no matter what math you use.