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Accuracy is just flawed.

2
AuthorMessage
Geographer
Aug 28, 2010
953
gtarhannon on Mar 27, 2014 wrote:
One last note... I skipped this bit in my previous reply (I think I liked the old posting system better, btw). The last sentence where you said:

"I understand your point on the die, but I have often wondered if your luck in the game is not based on statistical facts."

The thing about the way you have it stated is that its logically backward. Statistics are used to model luck and to try to make educated guesses... so the statistical facts are only facts if they are based on the luck and not the other way round. If an outcome is possible, no matter the odds, then it can (and often does) happen. In a previous post in this thread I actually talked about the odds of fizzling 6 times in a row at 85% accuracy... but I have never seen nor heard anyonce complain about fizzling that many times in a row, despite how possible it is. That alone demonstrates that KI has skewed reality in the player's favor...

Quick food for thought that may also help in regard to understanding the flaws inherent in probability and statistics... Can it be said that you are actually fizzling 3 times "in a row" if there are spell casts from others (such as monsters) in between all of your attempts? Incidentally, the odds of fizzling 3 times in a row at 97% accuracy are 27 in 1,000,000. Read another way, all that it really means is that there are 27 outcomes in 1,000,000 possible combinations which result in failure... not that it shouldn't happen. Is this helping at all?
Hi Gtar,

Yes, I understand what you are saying, it all makes perfect sense. What I was trying to say,
in the wrong way, was I think KI forces fizzles on you, at times. That's why the averages
seem to be off or often lower then they should be. I say this because, at times,
the fizzle rate doesn't make sense. Case in point, my Balance at 97%, a life at 98%, and a
death at 96%, all fizzled in a row. Then two of us fizzled in the next turn also, the odds are
so against that happening......
What amazed me, if the next time we went into the Hades dungeon, almost the same thing
happened (in the same battle at about the same round). The odds are so far against that,
it just seemed strange, almost as if it was planned....

Astrologist
Jun 04, 2010
1008
Veracity8 on Mar 31, 2014 wrote:
Hi Gtar,

Yes, I understand what you are saying, it all makes perfect sense. What I was trying to say,
in the wrong way, was I think KI forces fizzles on you, at times. That's why the averages
seem to be off or often lower then they should be. I say this because, at times,
the fizzle rate doesn't make sense. Case in point, my Balance at 97%, a life at 98%, and a
death at 96%, all fizzled in a row. Then two of us fizzled in the next turn also, the odds are
so against that happening......
What amazed me, if the next time we went into the Hades dungeon, almost the same thing
happened (in the same battle at about the same round). The odds are so far against that,
it just seemed strange, almost as if it was planned....
Well, I can't rule out adjustments in the Hades dungeon... I haven't played it enough since I got back. But as for the rest of of the game, what you have described is certainly rare (ie. the odds are against it), but not impossible. Incidentally, Is this Joe? I was doing research on your account because it was obvious you knew me... I have been surprised that so many people have new names now. :D

Archon
Sep 17, 2012
3847
Veracity8 on Mar 31, 2014 wrote:
Hi Gtar,

Yes, I understand what you are saying, it all makes perfect sense. What I was trying to say,
in the wrong way, was I think KI forces fizzles on you, at times. That's why the averages
seem to be off or often lower then they should be. I say this because, at times,
the fizzle rate doesn't make sense. Case in point, my Balance at 97%, a life at 98%, and a
death at 96%, all fizzled in a row. Then two of us fizzled in the next turn also, the odds are
so against that happening......
What amazed me, if the next time we went into the Hades dungeon, almost the same thing
happened (in the same battle at about the same round). The odds are so far against that,
it just seemed strange, almost as if it was planned....
I think this is true also. Loremaster is another battle that seems to have an unusually high fizzle rate. I've noticed it with the secret bosses in Aquila also.

Geographer
Aug 28, 2010
953
gtarhannon on Apr 1, 2014 wrote:
Well, I can't rule out adjustments in the Hades dungeon... I haven't played it enough since I got back. But as for the rest of of the game, what you have described is certainly rare (ie. the odds are against it), but not impossible. Incidentally, Is this Joe? I was doing research on your account because it was obvious you knew me... I have been surprised that so many people have new names now. :D
Hi Gtar,

Yep, same Joe as last time, but I quit the game for almost a year, and just came back a while ago.
The conversations got out of hand, started to get real rude, so it was time to leave the boards.
My brother too over my account, so I started a new one. In my second year, so I don't have
much time now.

Talk later.

Defender
Apr 21, 2012
100
Anyone knowing anything about chance and probability sees this one a mile off. Funny how no professor has stepped in yet.

First, there is the accuracy of the spell itself. Different schools being different rates of accuracy. This is seen and easily understood.

Second, what is not seen, nor is easily understood, is individual accuracy. We know that gear/pet talent can increase accuracy of the player, what is not clear is the actual accuracy for zero rating. If we were going based on zero accuracy added, then fizz rate SHOULD be the same in all worlds. Including dungeons. This is not the case. In Azteca, it takes a major leap.

This brings me to world and dungeon settings. There has no doubt been a tweak of some sort to increase fizz rate. In dungeons, double it. One gear set I use has zero accuracy, and I throw a low pip spell at the first of the round to get it over with. It is a fact that I have come to terms with to the point that friends are all to familiar with the term "hey guys, wanna watch me fizz? :D" before I throw the spell. It is just that. A joke. A repetitive lame joke.

Which brings me to the enigma of critical rating. The 'rating' you notice, is not a percent. Does it work? I have seen hades gear outperform the higher level crown gear, although the crown gear has higher accuracy and critical. Hades gear gets critical, and lands it. Level 95 gear gets it less, and it gets blocked.

In short? I smashed my scientific calculator with an unhewn rock. Why? Because according to the way KI calculates things, it is lying to me.

Survivor
May 12, 2009
49
i have always remembered a certain fight way way way back when my fire wizard was in celestia fighting aquabots in the either science center or survey camp not sure what the name of the place way but anyway i fought with a style of since they were fire a fire dragon wouldnt be to effective for my converts so i was using helephant as the killer anyway i had about 10-15 accuracy boost so my chances of not fizzling were something like 85-90% anyway i fizzled my first helephant so in my mind i said ok so its extremely unlikely i'll fizzle again well sure enough i did and then again and again and again overall i fizzled ELEVEN times before i got the helephant attack off then i fizzled another 4 trying to kill the other enemy so overall i fizzled 15 times in ONE match i was so frustrated i punched my laptop and it still has some issues in the area i punched it in lol (not to bad just some light refraction :P) it hasn't happened nearly that bad since but i guess your just getting unlucky

William DawnCloud lvl 100

Liam RainSpear lvl 60
Aaron WinterSpear lvl 70

Survivor
Oct 27, 2012
6
I'm sorry but I have to agree that the accuracy data doesn't add up properly, being unlucky is one thing, but when a level 4 spell fizzles more than it casts at 80% accuracy with another 5% boost there is something wrong with how the accuracy is being figured. I don't know if it is a glitch that happened with all the changes KI programmers have been doing, or there was a change to the original accuracy percentage that they didn't change the card for, but less than 50% is no where near 85% no matter what math you use.

Survivor
Jun 18, 2013
12
I agree with it being messed up I have a 88 chance of my myth spells working but they fizzle more than the storm enemy's spells. If a enemy's spell fizzles on that turn so does mine and it's the same with the enemy's a lot of times when mine fizzles theirs fizzles to

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