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fizzle question

AuthorMessage
Survivor
Feb 12, 2011
46
i am not exactly sure if this is the correct place but never mind, i have a strange thing happening with fizzles, i am a lvl 12 myth and secondary is storm.

i have just checked that all of my myth spells fizzle too much, like 70 in a 100, however my storm magic almost never fizzles, as much as this may be a good thing i am just curious why this may be happening?

Astrologist
Jun 04, 2010
1008
Blackomega34 wrote:
i am not exactly sure if this is the correct place but never mind, i have a strange thing happening with fizzles, i am a lvl 12 myth and secondary is storm.

i have just checked that all of my myth spells fizzle too much, like 70 in a 100, however my storm magic almost never fizzles, as much as this may be a good thing i am just curious why this may be happening?


Fizzle complaints are very, very common. You can simply attribute this to a bad run of luck for your myth spells. Here's the best way I can explain it:

Pretend that every time you cast a spell, you are rolling a 100 sided die. With 80% accuracy, a roll of 80 or less succeeds. Therefore, with each roll of the die, you have an 80 in 100 chance of the spell succeeding. Now, here's where people get confused. Lets say that you have rolled a number between 81 and 100 for the last 20 rolls of the die. What are the odds that your next roll will be 80 or less? That's right, 80 in 100. While it can be frustrating to be in a "slump", it is appropriate. In fact, the hallmark of a sufficiently "random" random number generator is one which can and does have long strings of the same number again and again.

Statistically speaking, you need a very large sample size (probably somewhere between 5000 and 10000 spell casts) to begin to bear out what you already know... that there is an 80 in 100 chance of success. I hope this helps to explain the phenomenon to you.

Adherent
May 20, 2010
2902
If you actually counted 100 consecutive Myth spells and only hit 30 of them, you need to send in a ticket to Support. The chances of an 80% spell only hitting 30 out of 100 are too long to attribute to bad luck.

If you counted 20 and only hit 6, that's probably just bad luck.

Survivor
Feb 12, 2011
46
Thanks for the clarification, however this post was not exactly a complaint but more of a comparison of two schools fizzle chances and the higher fizzle one fizzles less rarely

That is strange, i see many storm-using enemies and allies, and quite a lot of them fail, but not me. oh well, thanks anyway

Astrologist
Jun 04, 2010
1008
colagada wrote:
If you actually counted 100 consecutive Myth spells and only hit 30 of them, you need to send in a ticket to Support. The chances of an 80% spell only hitting 30 out of 100 are too long to attribute to bad luck.

If you counted 20 and only hit 6, that's probably just bad luck.


Now see, I took what he said to mean that he hit 70 out of 100, not that he missed 70 out of 100. I guess some clarification is in order. If you only hit 30 out of 100 Blackomega34, then I agree with colagada and suggest that you submit a ticket because while its possible, its terribly unlikely. Otherwise, see my response above.

Delver
Feb 25, 2010
296
Storm tends to fizzle a lot. It's an accepted, if much complained about, fact. However, there is also some sort of formula, which I haven't figured out yet, that dictates how much you might fizzle. If you haven't hit an enemy in a few rounds, or if the enemy hasn't hit you in a few rounds, you tend to fizz out, regardless of your school.
It just depends.

Hero
Sep 08, 2008
712
I have been reading about fizzle complaints ever since 2008, when I first started the game.
Something just yesterday popped into my head that may silence fizzle complaints forever.

Not sure if KingsIsle already thought of this or not, knowing how long Wizard101 has been running already.

After 2 fizzles in a row, accuracy goes up to 95/99/100 percent, regardless. Exception is of course the accuracy debuff, from which that attributed fizzle will not count towards 'natural fizzle.'

Sounds like a good idea?

Astrologist
Jun 04, 2010
1008
Shiningfantasia wrote:
I have been reading about fizzle complaints ever since 2008, when I first started the game.
Something just yesterday popped into my head that may silence fizzle complaints forever.

Not sure if KingsIsle already thought of this or not, knowing how long Wizard101 has been running already.

After 2 fizzles in a row, accuracy goes up to 95/99/100 percent, regardless. Exception is of course the accuracy debuff, from which that attributed fizzle will not count towards 'natural fizzle.'

Sounds like a good idea?


I for one, don't like it. While I appreciate that multiple fizzles in a row is frustrating, this would be capping one of the primary metrics meant to balance the schools of magic. Storm does amazing damage because it has a high probability of fizzle. Anyway, that's my two cents on the topic.

Explorer
Sep 28, 2010
54
Blackomega34 wrote:
i am not exactly sure if this is the correct place but never mind, i have a strange thing happening with fizzles, i am a lvl 12 myth and secondary is storm.

i have just checked that all of my myth spells fizzle too much, like 70 in a 100, however my storm magic almost never fizzles, as much as this may be a good thing i am just curious why this may be happening?


Well the basic point of the fizzle is to see how many times a spell will work and not work on your card you should see a number by a % sign it should be in the middle on the left hand side it is mainly how many times a spell will work out of a given hundred times such as most all percentages such as if it is a 70% chance it will work 70 times out of a 100 but if it's a 100% chance it will work all the time (Chances of fizzle and work chance should fizzle traps or focus spells or gear be in play) so yeah have fun and hope this helps :)

~Chris Lvl60 ice.

Mastermind
Feb 16, 2009
328
Happyyoshi wrote:
Blackomega34 wrote:
i am not exactly sure if this is the correct place but never mind, i have a strange thing happening with fizzles, i am a lvl 12 myth and secondary is storm.

i have just checked that all of my myth spells fizzle too much, like 70 in a 100, however my storm magic almost never fizzles, as much as this may be a good thing i am just curious why this may be happening?


Well the basic point of the fizzle is to see how many times a spell will work and not work on your card you should see a number by a % sign it should be in the middle on the left hand side it is mainly how many times a spell will work out of a given hundred times such as most all percentages such as if it is a 70% chance it will work 70 times out of a 100 but if it's a 100% chance it will work all the time (Chances of fizzle and work chance should fizzle traps or focus spells or gear be in play) so yeah have fun and hope this helps :)

~Chris Lvl60 ice.


You're looking at this the wrong way. Don't look at percentage as 'number of times out of a hundred', thing of percentage as chances.

For the average Storm spell, there is a 70% chance of success. There is no secret meaning behind it; it's just as it says: there's a 70% chance that this spell will succeed, and there's a 30% chance that this spell will fail. Sometimes Lady Luck, the mischievous little sweetie she is, likes to mess with any Wizard she chooses by having that 30% failure rating come by multiple times in a battle. There's nothing wrong. Just Lady Luck mesing with you.