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fizzle frustration!

AuthorMessage
Survivor
Nov 16, 2008
17
OK, with this last loss on pvp, I just fizzled 9 times (not counting the dispells). I have been fizzling at least 6 times per fight. My oponent managed to successfully cast wild bolt 2 times.

Over the last month, I have been keeping track of my fizzle rate. I discard any spells that have minuses attached to them on casting. I should be successful about 79% of the time due to my clothing bonuses.

I hit an average of 62%. I am under 50% today!!!! The highest I have actually obtained in casting success is 75%. I've tracked this about 12 times.

This is mathematically and statistically wrong. I cannot realistically participate in pvp if I cannot cast a spell. I annoy my oponents and my friends. (opponents think I'm trying to cast wild bolt which I refuse to use)

It is with my storm character. I am using old nice Mushoo clothing. It looks like the bonuses to cast are actually cursed bonuses if I am looking at the math correctly.

I understand, some days will be bad, but I should see on average about 1 bad spell per 5 tries. I tend to see 2-5 per fight. This really lengthens my fights ... Often, its ok. I have a stronger spell waiting, however, in pvp, you do all the right things to leave your oponent open for once, and I almost always seem to greet that oportunity with a resounding "fizzle".

Fizzles are part of the game. No one should see 9 in one match. Its not a match anymore when this happens.

BTW, I do have a degree in math.


Survivor
Oct 23, 2008
30
i feel your pain ....i too fizzle at least 2 times a fight more like 5 tho and one time even 8 and its on all my wizards so i cant blame just one class.
I have had 9 pips several times and its not from me casting blades or whatnot and not from passing its fizzles!!!
I hate to get into large battles anymore cuz i am the only one fizzeling most of the time ,,,its most upsetting

Emily Shadowsong
level 50 grand master

Defender
May 15, 2009
196
mg9189 wrote:
It looks like the bonuses to cast are actually cursed bonuses if I am looking at the math correctly.

Switch to non-accuracy boosting armour to see if it is actually bugged.

Explorer
Feb 11, 2009
86
If you are saying you tracked this 12 times then your sample size is way too small. Furthermore success or failure in the past does not affect your chances of success or failure in the present or future. The card has a 70% chance (as an example) of working. If you fail 10 times in a row, the next time you use that card it still only has a 70% chance of working. If you succeed 10 times in a row, the card still has a 70% chance of working. It is possible, however highly unlikely that the card could never work. It doesnt state that it would work 7 out of 10 times. It states that it has a 70 % chance of working each time. Each use of the card is independent of its previous use.

Survivor
Nov 16, 2008
17
I understand the concepts of sample size and probability. 12 times meaning 12 different days of many battles casting around 100 spells. A couple of the times will have had a smaller sampling.

Since I understand the 70% concept as well, you need to understand that during this sampling, at no point have I achieved near normal numbers. Yep, I could theoretically fizzle each and every time until the end of time. Yet, statistically, this has very little chance of ever happening.

Also, I only started keeping track due to the long bad stretch I had been already experiencing. So, the number of 12 is probably a bit higher.

Perhaps I'm cursed with incredibly bad luck.

Also, in regards to full disclosure, I have to admit that for the first in "months!" I had a pretty good day and hit 83% of my spells. After the last couple months of total frustration, I felt quite unstoppable.

Is it luck? The odds say that this should happen once in a while too, no matter how 'cursed' you are.