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Chances of going first in pvp is not 50-50.

AuthorMessage
Explorer
Dec 23, 2010
52
It's outrageous. I went second more than 15 times (not exaggerating I've been pvping the whole day) and went first only once. I've been put under a huge disadvantage, and my rank is gotten about 100 lower than it was before.

According to statistics, I would have gone first more than once in 15 matches. No, it cannot be that I am that unlucky. There has to be a reason why this is happening to me.

Mastermind
Mar 05, 2011
364
natshadowbane on Mar 1, 2014 wrote:
It's outrageous. I went second more than 15 times (not exaggerating I've been pvping the whole day) and went first only once. I've been put under a huge disadvantage, and my rank is gotten about 100 lower than it was before.

According to statistics, I would have gone first more than once in 15 matches. No, it cannot be that I am that unlucky. There has to be a reason why this is happening to me.
You realize that 50-50 means that you could also have gotten second all day. 50-50 does NOT mean that you will have first half of the time and second half of the time. Its a random decision by the game that gives you first or second.

Wolf Skullslinger

Mastermind
Jan 23, 2011
318
natshadowbane on Mar 1, 2014 wrote:
It's outrageous. I went second more than 15 times (not exaggerating I've been pvping the whole day) and went first only once. I've been put under a huge disadvantage, and my rank is gotten about 100 lower than it was before.

According to statistics, I would have gone first more than once in 15 matches. No, it cannot be that I am that unlucky. There has to be a reason why this is happening to me.
Wolf is right. I am sorry you had 15 matches in one day going second while only having one match going first but there is nothing we can do about that.

Defender
Jun 24, 2009
195
I'm gonna go with the general consensus and add a little math to the equation. Normally, the variation would be 50%. That's supposed to be programmed in. The thing with this is it's comparable to flipping a coin. Statistical probability would say you'd get heads then tails and it would repeat like that. Then we have something called experimental probability. This is the actual calculation of how often you have gone first over the total amount of times you've tried. in terms of the 50% it's rarely going to be even close to that. For other items like say fizzle probability it might be closer. Example: In fire school we've got sunbird which has 75% cast rate. Once every 4 times it should fizzle right? With experimental probability it's come out to be more like a 10% cast rate. The program itself randomly selects a number 1-100, if it lands in the designated area for fizzle/going second, you go second or fizzle. This explains why you went second so many times in a row. Sheer bad luck.

Explorer
Dec 23, 2010
52
Joshua Starflame on Mar 3, 2014 wrote:
I'm gonna go with the general consensus and add a little math to the equation. Normally, the variation would be 50%. That's supposed to be programmed in. The thing with this is it's comparable to flipping a coin. Statistical probability would say you'd get heads then tails and it would repeat like that. Then we have something called experimental probability. This is the actual calculation of how often you have gone first over the total amount of times you've tried. in terms of the 50% it's rarely going to be even close to that. For other items like say fizzle probability it might be closer. Example: In fire school we've got sunbird which has 75% cast rate. Once every 4 times it should fizzle right? With experimental probability it's come out to be more like a 10% cast rate. The program itself randomly selects a number 1-100, if it lands in the designated area for fizzle/going second, you go second or fizzle. This explains why you went second so many times in a row. Sheer bad luck.
Maybe you're right, maybe it is sheer bad luck. But since you're going to be so math technical, I disagree. Really. You've forgotten about the number of times I went first. See, if I flipped a coin about 100 times, the ratio should be getting close to 50%. Okay, I understand at first I can get like what, 5 heads in a row? Understandable. Hey but like 14 times in a row? That's sort of drawing the line for me. The larger the samples I get, the close p should be to the theoretical probability.

What I don't understand is the sunbird example you explained there. You mean that you casted the sunbird about "x" amount of times out of "y" amount of trials and got 10%? It's not possible unless you've casted it only a few amount of times. Do it about a thousand times the probability should be very close to 75%. I promise you.

Explorer
Dec 23, 2010
52
Wolf Skullslinger on Mar 3, 2014 wrote:
You realize that 50-50 means that you could also have gotten second all day. 50-50 does NOT mean that you will have first half of the time and second half of the time. Its a random decision by the game that gives you first or second.

Wolf Skullslinger
Okay, I'm really not dimwitted. After a long period of time I should be getting at least a couple of "firsts." The probability of me getting second all day is so small, it should not have happened, therefore I came to the conclusion that my first statement (the probability of going first is 50-50) is false. It's really only just statistical significance.

You probably wouldn't understand what I said. Lol.

Mastermind
Jan 23, 2011
318
natshadowbane on Mar 6, 2014 wrote:
Okay, I'm really not dimwitted. After a long period of time I should be getting at least a couple of "firsts." The probability of me getting second all day is so small, it should not have happened, therefore I came to the conclusion that my first statement (the probability of going first is 50-50) is false. It's really only just statistical significance.

You probably wouldn't understand what I said. Lol.
I did and very easily too lol.

Mastermind
Mar 05, 2011
364
natshadowbane on Mar 6, 2014 wrote:
Okay, I'm really not dimwitted. After a long period of time I should be getting at least a couple of "firsts." The probability of me getting second all day is so small, it should not have happened, therefore I came to the conclusion that my first statement (the probability of going first is 50-50) is false. It's really only just statistical significance.

You probably wouldn't understand what I said. Lol.
I never said you were "dimwitted". I just explained something that your first post didn't seem to get. Besides, its absurd to think that there are "worse" odds for one or the other person. How would the game decide then? It would require yet another finding the odds.

I assume you'll understand this post, you seem smart.
Wolf Skullslinger

Defender
Mar 08, 2013
114
natshadowbane on Mar 6, 2014 wrote:
Okay, I'm really not dimwitted. After a long period of time I should be getting at least a couple of "firsts." The probability of me getting second all day is so small, it should not have happened, therefore I came to the conclusion that my first statement (the probability of going first is 50-50) is false. It's really only just statistical significance.

You probably wouldn't understand what I said. Lol.
I have felt your pain. I do 2v2 with my storm and with a certain friend we almost always go second. I want to say it was about 14-1 going second. Unless KI gives us the programming code they use, we can only assume that it is a 50-50 chance.

Defender
Mar 30, 2010
175
It's 50:50.

I have seen it 4 x and 5x in a row going second. This is actually quite common. I've noticed other nights though I go first 3 or 4 times in a row so it's 50:50. I agree on the ratio, although I don't think the turn system is balanced out though. That's a whole different story, lol. But going first is 50:50.

Survivor
Mar 12, 2009
7
That is kinda sad. Sorry about that. I have no answers.

-Taylor Goldenrunner

Defender
Jun 24, 2009
195
natshadowbane on Mar 6, 2014 wrote:
Maybe you're right, maybe it is sheer bad luck. But since you're going to be so math technical, I disagree. Really. You've forgotten about the number of times I went first. See, if I flipped a coin about 100 times, the ratio should be getting close to 50%. Okay, I understand at first I can get like what, 5 heads in a row? Understandable. Hey but like 14 times in a row? That's sort of drawing the line for me. The larger the samples I get, the close p should be to the theoretical probability.

What I don't understand is the sunbird example you explained there. You mean that you casted the sunbird about "x" amount of times out of "y" amount of trials and got 10%? It's not possible unless you've casted it only a few amount of times. Do it about a thousand times the probability should be very close to 75%. I promise you.
Point taken. As the events continue, it should get close to the theoretical probability, the only issue that I can see is it doesn't always happen. It is highly likely to do so however. As for the Sunbird, I never really counted how many times I used it, however for the longest time it was a part in my arsenal to drive the enemies down to 0. The probability itself mirrored more of a 10% fail rate or successfully went off 90%. Keep in mind, my memory isn't always correct so the amount that I have used sunbird could be entirely wrong so take it with a grain of salt. However, I would be willing to run the tests once I have time. Got work and school to deal with so I haven't been on Wizard101 recently.

Hero
Sep 19, 2013
770
I see no reason to make assumptions based on a run of foul luck. Let's fire up the math-inator.
Chance of going second once = 50%.
We want to find the probability of going second 15 times in a row. To do that, we need to increase the probability of going second once to the 15th power. 1/2^15 = 1/32768. Obviously such an occurence is possible, it just happens about once every 32768 strings of 15 matches. Theoretically, if one locked an infinite number of monkeys in a room with an infinite number of typewriters, they would eventually produce the complete works of Shakespeare, because although the chance of a monkey hitting hundreds of thousands of keys in the exact order is very low, eventually, that order will be hit. Sorry for your bad luck.
I would also like to point out that if your opponent say has a 60% chance or something unbalanced, aren't you your opponent's opponent? Do you believe there is some kind of conspiracy against you?

Explorer
Dec 23, 2010
52
Robobot1747 on Mar 11, 2014 wrote:
I see no reason to make assumptions based on a run of foul luck. Let's fire up the math-inator.
Chance of going second once = 50%.
We want to find the probability of going second 15 times in a row. To do that, we need to increase the probability of going second once to the 15th power. 1/2^15 = 1/32768. Obviously such an occurence is possible, it just happens about once every 32768 strings of 15 matches. Theoretically, if one locked an infinite number of monkeys in a room with an infinite number of typewriters, they would eventually produce the complete works of Shakespeare, because although the chance of a monkey hitting hundreds of thousands of keys in the exact order is very low, eventually, that order will be hit. Sorry for your bad luck.
I would also like to point out that if your opponent say has a 60% chance or something unbalanced, aren't you your opponent's opponent? Do you believe there is some kind of conspiracy against you?
Lol! I love your monkey-typewriter example.. funny :). As you said in the first few sentences, it might as well be just "bad luck."
Also I would like to point out your 60% thing. I get what you're saying. Obviously, if it wasn't a 50-50 chance then it would be a 40-60 ratio, not 60-60. And no, LOL, there is no conspiracy against me. However I'm merely suggesting how there might be an unfair ratio based on my ranking, which whatever coding-thingamabob takes into account and puts me second. Just suggesting.