Hi all, this is my first post on the forum, and i just felt the desire to clear something up for those of you, like myself, who think/thought the fizzle system is/was broken. Now part of this is theory and part is fact. Here is how it works.
Chance is not the same as probability. Probability attempts to make Chance/chaos stabilized to a certain proximity range. This is impossible and only gives relatively adequate approximations at best. It is an estimate rather than a cement. When you cast an 80% spell you have a 20% chance to fizzle. People take that with probability in mind and say that means out of 10 spells i should only fizzle twice. But you see, the whole point of it being Chance/chaos is that it is completely random, though within a set of range. You could easily cast 10 times and miss all ten spells because the round does not count how many times you casted the spell and boost your percentage of success based on that. Now here comes the theory, there is a system in place as this.
What happens is that there is a specific range colored Red, and another colored white, simply for example. Red is 80% meaning you will always hit your target if you stay within the red range, White is 20%.
You see these numbers are calculated by random changes. So number 1-80 is success, 81-100 is failure. But the randomization that occurs has a set speed by how it blows through the numbers. It may not even count from 1-100 before resetting but constantly bounce around from 1-100, meaning that it can end up sticking on 25, three times in a row resulting in a successful cast. Or it can end up being stuck in the 81-100 range. Its a matter of the speed at which the system flows through the numbers and the amount of numbers it flows through also adding in the range acceptable for a failure and a success.
Thats the problem and beauty of CHANCE/CHAOS. it is random, even if it is somewhat fixed, the entire equation will still be based on chaos. And the speed at which the numbers end up moving through the cycle as set by the creator of said cycle will help decide how it works. Every time you cast a spell, the system resets or resumes its random count. It could have a stable starting point or a variable one. Maybe after every spell it always resets back to counting from 48. Or it could pause its random cycle during the very moment you cast, like blackjack for those who may be lost, and then resume from the number it stopped on.
So my point was, that fizzle rate when it comes to chance vs probability is in fact Chaos/Chance, Not probability. You can combine the two but you end up with an estimate, which is all probability was ever meant to do. It is infinitely impossible to take anything based on Chance/chaos, and stabilize it to be a particular. The whole point of its system is that is is not a particular, but a never-ending variable.
All you had to say is "Random number between 1-100", but you had to appear intelligent with your thesaurus read explanation.
Of course that is your assumption. Codes malfunction every now and then, hence what is called a bug. I still find it hard to believe I am fizzling a life spell at least once every battle for 14 consecutive battles. Thats 2 opponents, 3 attacks (fizzle counts as one). I have had battles where life heal/damage fizzled 4 times in a row.
I didn't say much that was theory, the system in place could be far more complex or far more simple than the one i suggested. I was just trying to give relief to those that mixed up probability and chance. I also wasn't trying to sound intelligent, I am very anal and particular. I apologize if i offended you, not sure why it seems two posts above me took this personally. If you disagree with the theory of this particular system thats fine. However, chance is chance, i didn't make that up, just trying to clear that up for those that didn't quite understand.
SO much anger and defense on a game board made for a fantastic world with fantasy, outlandish humor, and whimsy. The grown ups, need to grow up and relax their brains a tad.
ALso my apologies for a double post. However, i just wanted to say, that i sound condescending to people often. Its no different than what happened here obviously. I didnt target anyone. I said nothing in the slightest mean or intentionally offensive. I was jsut trying to explain that in a stable system that is fixed daily and doesnt have too many occasional hiccups. The fizzle rate, would be as i said it was, based on chance, which i did not create mind you.
Its impossible for me to sound nice to an individual with an inferiority complex who has the nerve to tell someone they have never met, spoken to, or even seen/heard in any realm of reality on this planet ... that their choice words and formulated speech process is from a thesaurus in order to make other people feel down on themselves.
I dont live my life based on you, i never will as i Do not know you and we travel different paths. Never, Ever, flatter yourself with the incredibly finite idea that I, would waste time ATTEMPTING to seem intelligent for the likes of you.
Thank you for taking the time to write this helpful post onyxpoet.
I have no idea why people are so rude on message boards it only serves to make them look as though they have tiny, shrivelled, stony hearts, which in turn makes the people that read their unforgiving remarks like them less and consequently give no weight to their opinions.
Thankfully, most people here seen to be able to behave with some decency.
I admire your kindness and appreciation :). Its nice to get a helpful post about this. I admit i got a tad bent out of shape before but I'm well now lol. Now if only I could get my storm wizard to fizzle only 0.1% of the time I'd be a very, very happy man :P
This too, is my first posting. With regards to chance, probabilities, and fizzle occurances ... I have kept a dilligent tracking of my spell casting since a few days past the last maintenance shutdown. I made sure that I kept track of a specific number of spells, During my test period, I cast 2,000 spells. Of those spells, 65% were cast in defense and/or healing of myself, or party members. The remaining 35% were cast as 'attack' spells. I am a level 44 Death School Mage. Here is how the results of those spells broke down.
Of the 65% defensive spells cast, approximately 70% were healing spells and the rest shields and/or some other counter measure. Of the shield spells and counter measures, there was a 100% success ratio. Of the healing spells, there was an 85% success ration, though I am of the school that no healing spell, or 'treasure' card spell should ever fail completely.
Of the 35% 'attacking' spells, approximately 70% were fizzles, hence the need for the lopsided amount of defensive spells. The numbers would be acceptable if the same criteria applied to the various ghouls, trolls, clockwork monsters we are up against ... Where it turns out that almost the complete opposite is true. And one thing in specific ... The monsters NEVER miss when using their basic school of magic spells (will only on the rarest of occasions, lol).
At level 44, my spell casting should show significant improvement, especially in spells from my own school. But it has come to the point where I don't even bother wwith using my school spells, knowing that in all likelihood it will fail ... And opt for healing, or providing myself or one of my friends with a shield.
Prior to the last maintenance update, I didn't think much about the fizzles because they happened about 35% of the time and NONE of my healing spells ever failed.
I wouldn't even bring this up if it was only my problem, but the same is happening to eveyone I've met. It's very discouraging, if not impossible to face three clockwork foes, each with 2,000 kill points.
I have had a rule since first starting Wizard101 ... Three fizzles in a row, I hit the flee button. Before the update, I only needed to flee once. Since the update, I have had to flee eight times. The reason I made the '3 Fizzle' rule is because if a mage doesnt cast a successful spell within three opportunites, the likelyhood of their survival drops expotentially, expeccially the further along you are progressed in the game.
I used to be a long standing member of THERE.COM before it shut down, and I am getting the most uncomfortable feeling of Deja Vu ... They would have 'maintenance' updates and for every item they fixed, they broke ten others, that would be address on future 'mainenance' updates. THERE.COM closed because of lack of funds coming in, but it was the need for constant updates and their breaking things that worked that ultimately drove people away, hence, creating the problem of not having enough funds to sustain itself.
Wizard101 is a fantastic online experience, but please ... Don't break the things that work.
Thats very interesting. I noticed on my death wizard that i fizzled rather often compared to my balance wizard. My balance wizard has 85% as my death should as well but i rarely, if ever, fizzle on my balance. However, on my death its more like i have a 77.83% chance to cast rather than an 85% chance.
Again, in a system without too many hiccups i described how it Should work. However, these things need to be looked into here. I am wondering how much attention they pay to the system, or if they need to stop beating that old horse and get a new one in place to carry out their ideas. System meaning the randomization sequence of numbers that causes the fizzle rate to exist.
Thanks for mentioning that, its been something I've been rather curious about and its much appreciated. I can still say that I could just have bad luck, but as a human who errors often himself ... i have to wonder if those humans that work on and maintain the system in play here are not creating a few errors/overlooks themselves.
Not saying there is an error for certain as chance will always be Chance ... but I cant say that I am not wondering a tad myself.
