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Power pip rate from gear not matching battle

AuthorMessage
Astrologist
Aug 20, 2011
1077
For about a year, I have noticed a sharp discrepancy in the power pips I am purported to get from my gear and the power pips I actually receive in a duel. At first I thought it was bad luck. It's not.

I'm not getting nearly as many power pips as I should.

From my observations, this occurs most often when I am in a Marleybone dungeon, such as the Spiral Archives or Barkingham Palace. In every battle--note, every battle--my pip rate is averaging out between 20% and 40% when in fact it is 80%. While it is possible to get 5 white pips in a row even with 80% power pips, it is statistically extremely unlikely to see it happen with this level of regularity or predictability.

No, I'm not talking about a bad streak of luck that can be explained away with a wiki link to an article on probability. No, I'm not wearing the wrong gear. No, I'm not reading the numbers incorrectly. The programming is the culprit.

Please investigate and address this in the upcoming update.

Explorer
Mar 29, 2010
84
This has actually been a problem for years. However KI has 'random' programmed, it isn't random. The game seems to fall into 'streaks' where for a while it will over perform by way of things like pips or accuracy or crit, and then it under performs. I have had 5 single pips IN A ROW with 95% power pip chance. And it happens often. I've had KI try to explain statistics and probability to me, when I have taken statistics courses. Their answers show they don't understand. If your stats say 'x', then over time with tons and tons of testing, your results should be very close to what your stats say; if not, then your 'stats' are incorrect. Stats do not line up with results in this game. I've been in game since 2010 and have brought this issue up time and time and time again.

Here's another example: going first in pvp. One would think you had a 50-50 chance of going first, but I kept track lately of 240 matches and I went first 34% of the time. One could say I have terrible luck, but this has happened to me MULTIPLE times when I track how often I go first. My average over hundreds and hundreds of games is about 34% for going first. There must be some other factors affecting how the game assigns who goes first, which would alter the 50-50 chance.

Me thinks we're talking to a brick wall.

Archon
Sep 17, 2012
4162
No it's just bad luck and your memory only remembering the times you get white pips and glossing over the memory of most of the other times. It the same thing that happens when we fizzle with 95% accuracy, it seems like it's every battle and we're on a long streak whenever it happens. Must be the programming. It's not it's random numbers combined with selective memory. Your odds of getting a power pip each round does NOT ever change based on what the last pip was. Getting a 5th in a row is no different chance than getting the first.

Astrologist
Aug 20, 2011
1077
seethe42 on Jul 14, 2015 wrote:
No it's just bad luck and your memory only remembering the times you get white pips and glossing over the memory of most of the other times. It the same thing that happens when we fizzle with 95% accuracy, it seems like it's every battle and we're on a long streak whenever it happens. Must be the programming. It's not it's random numbers combined with selective memory. Your odds of getting a power pip each round does NOT ever change based on what the last pip was. Getting a 5th in a row is no different chance than getting the first.
No, like I said, it's not this. I know what I'm talking about. I'm currently recording clips of the phenomenon so that I can share with the staff, since evidently so many are disinclined to believe tested, empirical observations.

Defender
Oct 22, 2012
133
Yep, something just seems wrong when you can get 8 single pips in a row for 2 battles. I've had that happen. Maybe random generator just working like it supposed to. Or the rng is not as random as it should be.

Survivor
Mar 28, 2013
33
I have also noticed this over the years on more than one wizard. I referred to them as "dungeon pips". It's a persistent occurrence that I observed regularly once I saw a repeat pattern emerge. Others I have farmed with have also noticed the same situation. Now that my wizards have full Mali gear it does not seem to be an issue.

Survivor
Jun 15, 2015
5
Well, how many of you know haw a random number is chosen by the computer? There is no "random" number. There cannot be. I forget exactly how it works, but there is a seed that is universal to the computer, that the program looks at when a random number event is called. Depending on that seed, it then gets a number. So, while there can never be a true "random" number, the results will look like it is random. However, it is prone to strings of luck one way or the other. for instance, with a 15% power pip chance, I once had 6 in a row.

Anyway, hope this clears it up a little.

Defender
Nov 12, 2013
110
Probably the work of a mysterious power emanating from the spiral! lol But I have seen other things. My pet gives me a spell card, (balance-85%accuracy), I always use precision before I use the spell because for some weird reason pet spells often tend to fizzle more than regular spells. So I use and it fizzles! 95% accuracy+ my gear stats, so probably 97%-98%! and it still fizzles! This completely astounds me at the odds of this occuring.

Astrologist
Aug 20, 2011
1077
The problem is that you are locked into a pip pattern in the first battle of any dungeon. If you get bad pips that first battle, your pattern will be perfectly replicated in each following battle with the same number of enemies. Big Ben is a perfect place to observe this, since there are so many non-roaming mob battles.

Thus, it's not random. The instant your pips are chosen is the instant you walk into the dungeon, and it ceases to be random from that point forward. This has been tested, confirmed.

Geographer
Sep 07, 2011
819
The numbers that you see for anything probabilistic in Wizard are a guideline. The way the system actually works is a bit different. There are some things that are 'rolled' for a whole turn rather than individually, and perhaps some for a whole dungeon as you suggested. There also seems to be a background 'luck' variable that makes some locations and some runs harder or easier. These may even adjust when you are defeated in an instance and return.

Pips, accuracy/fizzle, pet may-casts, stuns... all of them are prone to streaks and none behave exactly as you'd expect. With 95% stun block up, I actually get stunned 15% - 20% in the first Graveyard fight. With that and a 5% jewel I still get stunned occasionally, which should be impossible. There are many other examples.

Bottom line: The game math is 'fuzzy' to speed making lots of calculations. Don't expect wizard stats to always follow exactly as 'advertized'. They don't, and can't. Over time they tend to average out about what they should be. When you get to 100% power pips, you'll actually get them. Hang in there.

Astrologist
Aug 20, 2011
1077
While I agree that staying the course is the best practical advice at this time, saying "hang in there" dismisses the problem.

Many players swear that random is random is random in Wiz101, even with verified proof that it isn't. That's very confusing, and it doesn't have to be. I loathe these kinds of issues that encourage confusion and ensure everyone leaves frustrated.

My recommendation is for programmers to go back and add a chance roll for each round of each battle, or else spend literally two seconds somewhere, anywhere in the game explaining that stats are just "guidelines."