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Help me with the math please

AuthorMessage
Survivor
Aug 10, 2009
34
I need help with figuring the odds on what I am doing so the math can tell me what an idiot I am for trying.

I have hatched two pets for a dozen times (I keep a record) and not achieved what I am trying to do. All I want (apparently all is a lot) is to get one talent from pet B and one talent from pet A. So, it must be a 40 percent chance just to get that one talent latent from Pet A and the same odds for getting the other talent latent in Pet B in the hatched pet. Then what are the odds for both of them actually showing up together as a talent in the new hatched pet?

And then I guess we would have to add in that Pet A talent is common and Pet B talent is ultra rare. What are the odds now? And we add in that I will only try to get these talents to adult if the first two talents are not one of my wanted talents. If the talent does show up by adult, then I will take it one more time to Ancient. I will not try to Epic. I appreciate your help because I have spent a week doing this hatching and I grow weary, but I am still determined unless someone tells me the chances are similar to lightning striking a certain spot.

Thanks so much

Champion
May 03, 2011
447
When you say "latent," do you mean that you are trying to transfer an un-manifested talent from the parent to the child? Something the parent pet didn't show, but could have? Because you really do diminish your chances if that is the case. I have hatched a lot of pets, and never have I gotten a "latent" talent in the parent to manifest in the hatchling. I know it's possible, because other people have succeeded in doing it, but I think it's rare.

Survivor
Aug 10, 2009
34
I should have used the word manifested instead of latent. thanks for pointing that out. Yes, the two pets I am using both each have the one talent that I want manifested.

Champion
May 03, 2011
447
I am not good at math. But as I understand it, your new hatchling will manifest two talents from each parent. There is a higher (maybe much higher?) chance that these will be talents already manifested in the parents. I can't give you numbers (but I bet someone here can--there are some good math brains here, in my experience), but I can tell you what I did. A few weeks ago I was also tearing my hair out after lots of failed hatches. I not only wanted two talents, Spritely and Spell-Proof, but I also wanted them in a specific pet, my Myth's Humongofrog. This complicated things, because other pets were not going to be acceptable, even if they had the talents I wanted. Anyway, after trying and failing like a dozen times, I decided to try to get these 2 talents into a Sea Dragon first, then work on the Frog project. This would raise the pedigree of the pet first, which I thought gave me a better chance for Spell-Proof, which is an epic talent. After a few more tries (um, I think I've blocked out how many it was), I got my dragon. Then, two tries later, my new improved Frog. Oh, and I also followed your leveling strategy--neither talent by adult, the pet goes to the pet farm at my house. But I should say that My Frog got Spell-Proof at Epic, so you know, it's still possible as long as you have a slot open (in your case, rare and ultra-rare).

Bottom line: Patience and perseverance. And taking breaks from it all occasionally, too! :-)

Survivor
Aug 10, 2009
34
Let me be more specific, so perhaps someone will be willing to help me understand the odds.

I have a pure (not hatched) fierce dog that has death proof as one talent. I have a pure star fish (not hatched) that has spell proof. I desire these two talents, death and spell proof to be in the new hatchling. Death proof is common and spell proof is ultra rare.

I have hatched them now 12 times without getting those two talents trained and I will train to adult if I do not get either one, and train to ancient if I get one of those 'proof' talents by adult.

Is it realistic to expect this combination to happen, or are the odds so great that I am foolish to be trying this?

I am not asking if these two talents are wise choices. I have my reasons.

Thank you if you can help me.


Survivor
Nov 10, 2010
31
hey hey. i have a pet that is a fail to me.but has the two talents you are after.the talents are on a polar cat and it also has unicorn defy and sprite in the blood line.really when it comes to hatching knowing the blood line best you can also helps.not sure if there is a math but as someone said earlier they pass manifested talents much better but not always.and if you are after proof of any kind you want to try keep the agility strength and power up as high as possible to try get 10% out of it.there are calculations online to help with this.
always keen to try help anyone in the pain that is hatching on this game.so sing out if you would like to meet and try for a hatch.


Survivor
Aug 10, 2009
34
I forgot to add in another variable for the equation of figuring the odds. My original fierce dog has no ultrarare slots and the original star fish has only one ultrarare slot.

Considering that I sell a baby pet outright if it has no ultrarare slot, or if it does have one, but it gets used early with an unwanted talent so I sell it, my odds must be much lower.

So, if I take Tabby714's nice advice, I would farm for the sea dragon. I have done the trial of spheres about 15 or 20 times now with no luck in getting that pet drop. I am beginning to wonder what the odds are in getting a sea dragon drop?

A+ Student
Mar 02, 2010
1625
gabrielstovall wrote:
I need help with figuring the odds on what I am doing so the math can tell me what an idiot I am for trying.

I have hatched two pets for a dozen times (I keep a record) and not achieved what I am trying to do. All I want (apparently all is a lot) is to get one talent from pet B and one talent from pet A. So, it must be a 40 percent chance just to get that one talent latent from Pet A and the same odds for getting the other talent latent in Pet B in the hatched pet. Then what are the odds for both of them actually showing up together as a talent in the new hatched pet?

And then I guess we would have to add in that Pet A talent is common and Pet B talent is ultra rare. What are the odds now? And we add in that I will only try to get these talents to adult if the first two talents are not one of my wanted talents. If the talent does show up by adult, then I will take it one more time to Ancient. I will not try to Epic. I appreciate your help because I have spent a week doing this hatching and I grow weary, but I am still determined unless someone tells me the chances are similar to lightning striking a certain spot.

Thanks so much


The new pet will only get the stats from its parent, but will have a slight chance to get all stats from the other pet. The only way to get 2 pets mixed with stats is to get a mixed baby out of it.

Champion
May 03, 2011
447
I checked my own pets with Spell Proof--it's epic, not ultra-rare (at least on mine). But, mathematical probabilities aside, it can sometimes take many, many hatches to get the pet you want, judging from anecdotal evidence on this forum and my own experience. One player suggested I alternate which pet goes first on the hatcher--this actually helped! I do that all the time now, and have had some better success.

I have a Sea Dragon with a 65 pedigree (down from 72 after hatching with a Spinyfish that had spritely and spell proof), and a couple of 72's. My pets are mostly where I want them now, so I would be happy to hatch with you if you want. The 65 dragon also has spritely and spell-proof (I think--I've only trained it to adult, but it has spritely manifested and has passed on spell-proof to two pets). If you want to keep going with your own pets, try the order-switching thing, and be patient. Eventually you will get the pet you want.

Good luck!

Survivor
Mar 22, 2011
13
gabrielstovall wrote:
I have hatched two pets for a dozen times (I keep a record) and not achieved what I am trying to do. All I want (apparently all is a lot) is to get one talent from pet B and one talent from pet A. So, it must be a 40 percent chance just to get that one talent latent from Pet A and the same odds for getting the other talent latent in Pet B in the hatched pet. Then what are the odds for both of them actually showing up together as a talent in the new hatched pet?



Well, at first pass, assuming that one gets 50% of traits from each parent (which isn't exactly true. It can be 6/4), and there are slots for each, the odds should be

Inherit Trait A = 50%
Inherit Trait B = 50%
Inherit both = 25%

Then the pet has to express both, which is a 40% for each
Assuming it has both in its pedigree, that's 40% for each, or 16% of expressing both.

So, starting with that 25%, I'd estimate you have roughly a 4% chance of getting a pet that inherits and expresses both traits.

That's just as a first pass. There are vatrious factors I believe that will shift the odds, but that's the general idea.

in other words, be patient. It might take over 20 attempts

Survivor
Aug 10, 2009
34
4 percent! wow. I wonder why we, or at least I, even try. What a time sink.

Thank you. I guess the odds are even lower, considering that about one out of five pets hatched doesn't even have the required slot for spell proof. Those are sold before they hatch.

Thank you, I appreciate knowing my futility.


Survivor
Mar 22, 2011
13
gabrielstovall wrote:

Thank you, I appreciate knowing my futility.



As they say, if at first you don't succeed, try, try again! Patience, young padawan!

Survivor
Aug 10, 2009
34
The problem is, I know how dice throwing works. If you want a six on a six sided die, you have an equal chance each roll to roll any number whether it is a three a hundred times in a row or all mixed up results. The more times you roll does not improve your odds.


Survivor
Mar 22, 2011
13
gabrielstovall wrote:
The problem is, I know how dice throwing works. If you want a six on a six sided die, you have an equal chance each roll to roll any number whether it is a three a hundred times in a row or all mixed up results. The more times you roll does not improve your odds.



True, on each individual throw but after a series, you odds overall improve. If you think about it as your odds of continuing not to get your pet, that goes down as .96^n where n is the number of crosses done. Here after a dozen crosses you chances of getting you pet at roughly 1/3 and after 20 crosses you are 55% likely to have gotten your pet. It'd take bad luck not to get it after 30 or so. Still that's a long time.

I up my odds by looking for two out is say four traits and being happy with any set of two or three good things

Survivor
Aug 10, 2009
34
I understand what you are saying AlricRS and thanks for the clarification. I only wanted two talents and could have lived with any of the rest. This has thought me that luck keeps a smile on your face and being unlucky keeps a frown. The problem is though, the odds favor unlucky strongly.

I have given up trying for death proof and spell proof. I am just plain tired of the failure. I decided to quit after finally getting a slightly better pet than my level 58 scarecrow which had death accuracy and death pain. I lost the damage boast with my new starfish but gained spritely (which is not important to me against pve as a death player, but if I ever do pvp, I think it would be more useful). I also gained spell proof and death accuracy. I don't know what epic will bring yet.

Thanks everyone for helping me understand the odds. I guess compromise is what I need to understand better. :)