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How Much Chance is Too Much Chance?

AuthorMessage
Geographer
Apr 29, 2012
861
On my level 62 , I ran Waterworks twice and got both the Robes of Judgement and the Boots of Judgement. I don't even want the mask because I've got the Mask of Mutual Mystery and already have a Myth Mastery Amulet. It could not have turned out better for me. But I constantly hear tales of woe about how they farmed for 16,000 years and only got the boots on their wizard. So clearly the drop rates are very random, so random I feared Waterworks because of such stories.

But Loremaster is the perfect example of why chance is too much sometimes. Completely random drop rates. You could run her once and get all 14 spells or run her forever and never get 1. Things need to change.

1) Increase drop rates.

2) Make drop rates more fair/less random.

3) Ignore this post entirely.

4) Because you have a heart, change Loremaster to have some number-based chance.

I'm hoping you don't go for 3 KI.

Geographer
Nov 22, 2010
836
Blaze Sandblade on Feb 8, 2016 wrote:
On my level 62 , I ran Waterworks twice and got both the Robes of Judgement and the Boots of Judgement. I don't even want the mask because I've got the Mask of Mutual Mystery and already have a Myth Mastery Amulet. It could not have turned out better for me. But I constantly hear tales of woe about how they farmed for 16,000 years and only got the boots on their wizard. So clearly the drop rates are very random, so random I feared Waterworks because of such stories.

But Loremaster is the perfect example of why chance is too much sometimes. Completely random drop rates. You could run her once and get all 14 spells or run her forever and never get 1. Things need to change.

1) Increase drop rates.

2) Make drop rates more fair/less random.

3) Ignore this post entirely.

4) Because you have a heart, change Loremaster to have some number-based chance.

I'm hoping you don't go for 3 KI.
I have to disagree. The drops you speak of, and all other drops for that matter, aren't a right you have just because you happen to play the game. They're not even a right because you have a membership. And the more powerful the item in question is, the less likely it should be that it'll be dropped.

The game is well designed and needs to stay the way it is, frustrating though it might be for someone that is bound and determined to have a certain item. Remember, none of the special items are actually required in order to successfully play the game, and rare items need to remain rare.

Defender
Nov 25, 2015
101
Basically what your saying are parts of the game.Just because you don't get something you want doesn't mean you have to complain.For example loremaster drops are supposed to be rare because it's part of the game and it's the developer's excitement for players who want to get drops.Also there's a solution to your problem you should do farming with friends and get more stuff.Therefore this increases your chance a little or more and you might get the stuff you want.The reason for the loot thing is that if it were common then that takes the fun out of the game and it really isn't exciting.

Logan DarkWraith Lvl 45 death necromancer.

Geographer
Apr 29, 2012
861
I'd like to remind you that I haven't had any problems with these drops, but many people have. I think it should be less like 10% of people get all the drops and 90% don't. More like people get 10% of the drops but not 90%.

Defender
Nov 25, 2015
101
Eventually I got crowns gear which were parts and were rare.Don't you notice that crowns gear is even rarer than the gear you want because gear from dungeons is more likely to drop then crowns gear.This is what I think and getting what I don't want doesn't mean to complain I do several dungeons.

Survivor
Jul 13, 2014
49
Statistically speaking, you have a 1 in 12 (.083%) to get the specific item you want (3 tiers, 4 items per tier) when only taking into account the wand, robes, hood, and boots from Darkmoor. Honestly, .083% chance is INCREDIBLY low compared to some more hardcore MMO's I have played in the past. The lowest statistic I can remember on a rare item drop was 1.25% from a boss that spawns randomly and roughly .50% from bosses that spawn fairly regularly. Mind you these were "vanity items" stuff that you'd show off. Average drop rates for gear and things of that nature were closer to 5-7% from regularly spawning enemies and they were comparable to their counterparts that came from boss drops. Obviously, boss items were better, but they spawned randomly so the game needed other gear options.

Defender
Nov 25, 2015
101
Ok I'm not a geek but I think the battles you should do to get crowns gear is 5-10.For dungeons maybe 3-5.

Geographer
Apr 29, 2012
861
SeismicNick on Feb 10, 2016 wrote:
Statistically speaking, you have a 1 in 12 (.083%) to get the specific item you want (3 tiers, 4 items per tier) when only taking into account the wand, robes, hood, and boots from Darkmoor. Honestly, .083% chance is INCREDIBLY low compared to some more hardcore MMO's I have played in the past. The lowest statistic I can remember on a rare item drop was 1.25% from a boss that spawns randomly and roughly .50% from bosses that spawn fairly regularly. Mind you these were "vanity items" stuff that you'd show off. Average drop rates for gear and things of that nature were closer to 5-7% from regularly spawning enemies and they were comparable to their counterparts that came from boss drops. Obviously, boss items were better, but they spawned randomly so the game needed other gear options.
Are you sure 1 in 12 isn't 8.3%? But then again, there's 7 different schools. And you're not guaranteed to get any of the rare items at all. So... We don't know the numbers unless KI shows us the code. But the items are certainly quite rare, which is why I made this post.

Survivor
Jul 13, 2014
49
Blaze Sandblade on Feb 11, 2016 wrote:
Are you sure 1 in 12 isn't 8.3%? But then again, there's 7 different schools. And you're not guaranteed to get any of the rare items at all. So... We don't know the numbers unless KI shows us the code. But the items are certainly quite rare, which is why I made this post.
Pretty positive. Chances are actually even lower if you factor in all seven schools.

Delver
Mar 31, 2015
203
SeismicNick on Feb 11, 2016 wrote:
Pretty positive. Chances are actually even lower if you factor in all seven schools.
Dude, where's your math? 100 / 12 = 8.33, which is 8.3%.

And if you factor all seven schools according to your (updated) estimate, that's 100 / 12 / 7 = 1.19% of getting your school gear. Seeing as I did Darkmoor 61 times before I got my Staff, I can believe it.

What should really happen has actually been suggested already on Duelist101. The way it works: A token system that exists for each dungeon you try out (or for just the popular ones like Darkmoor). The more times you do a specific dungeon, the more tokens you earn for that dungeon. Each hard-to-get item in that dungeon would cost a specific number of tokens. That way, even if you get absolutely nothing for your hard effort, eventually you will be able to 'buy' the item you want.

The idea is pretty much universally well received, and Wizard101 would certainly benefit from implementing this sort of dungeon token system.

Geographer
Apr 29, 2012
861
SeismicNick on Feb 11, 2016 wrote:
Pretty positive. Chances are actually even lower if you factor in all seven schools.
1 in 12 put into percent is (100/12)*1. Which =100/12. Which makes 8.3 recurring. But 12*7=84. And 100/84=... A long number that rounds to 1.2. Which is indeed the lowest chance of your MMO experience. But then there's the chance of not getting an item at all that we may as well call it a 1 in 100 chance; or 1%. And that's being rather generous.

Survivor
Jul 13, 2014
49
Apparently I've been out of school longer than I've thought... disregard.