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storm fizzles to much

2
AuthorMessage
Explorer
Mar 18, 2010
69
I can see what you mean. Really. I have a storm wizard and she fizzles often and sometimes it's very irritating. But the problem is if storm didn't fizzle as much, it would be very, very overpowering.

Survivor
Apr 16, 2012
42
katiebex on Oct 22, 2012 wrote:
It seems to me that you probably didn't pay attention much in those statistics classes you took.

If your accuracy is 70%, then you have a 30% chance of fizzling every time you cast a spell. If you fail once, then your chance of fizzling the next time is STILL 30%. And if you have bad luck and fizzle again, then you're chance of fizzling the third time is STILL 30%.

Your probability of success doesn't increase just because you failed the first time. It's exactly the same every time.

I have a feeling you're exaggerating when you say you miss the first two times every battle. But even if you aren't, that's not statistically impossible, just extremely rare.
Statistic classes???? what the heck is that

Geographer
Mar 12, 2013
923
^^

Statistics courses are for learning how to read and compare the results from tests, such as coin flips or counting up the number of times a spell succeeds or fizzles.

As for storm, it all depends on your play style, and the amount of time you have available for playing the game overall.

Some people find the low health and accuracy of storm to be acceptable trade-offs for its power and drama. They are okay sometimes losing battles because a final blow spell fizzled, and their enemies healed themselves back up out of striking range.

I find if you have limited time to play online, you are less likely to have the patience to brace for a lot of prolonged battles where you are nearly eliminated, but then climb slowly out of the hole and wind up for a massive, perfect storm spell. I've just about lost patience with my storm wizard in the Tomb of Storms because now I'm not only spending longer on battles overall, but many enemies are storm-resistant, far more so than I am with level 20-25 gear. It takes nerves of steel and loads of patience to solo this world as Storm, even with good crown drops like Midsummer's Cowl and Veil of Sparks.

For those looking for big spells but more peace of mind and a faster pace, maybe Death or Myth with storm secondary is a better fit.

Defender
Jan 02, 2011
138
jrw1962 on Oct 22, 2012 wrote:
Sorry, but as one who is OLD enough to understand statistics and probabilities, and majored in Mathematics, the failure rates on ANY spell are way too high compared to the statistical probabilities of the percentages listed on the spell cards...

A 70% card SHOULD succeed 7 out of 10 times, that is what the percentage indicates. Can multiple failures occur, yep, but every time the spell fails, your statistical probability should INCREASE that the next time you cast it, it should succeed.

This was the case when I first signed up a few months ago, but recently, I would say in the last week or two, it appears that someone "messed" with the random number generator, and the "Fizzle" rate has gone through the roof.

Multiple failures can occur, even back to back failures, but when they occur with regularity over several days, with an obvious pattern occurring, one can only surmise that there is a problem....

The patterns I am seeing, where the SAME spell always fails the first two times I try to cast it in a battle, EVERY battle, that is NOT statistically possible...
This should be the rarity, not the norm...

I think someone needs to look into this more seriously...
"A 70% card SHOULD succeed 7 out of 10 times,"

Nope. it's a 70% chance each time. It doesn't look at the number of times you've cast something and do an average. It's a totally new item each time.

Delver
Feb 25, 2013
252
I understand. I'm a storm wizard. Believe me, I'm not glad about the fizzles, but I don't worry too much. I just stock up on treasure cards and gear that improves my accuracy.

Delver
Feb 25, 2013
252
Northlite on Oct 17, 2012 wrote:
I agree but I see the point of it - all schools have their ups and downs. Currently I have a Storm wizard in Marleybone and with gear help the fizzle rate is getting better, it's a matter of patience to just wait to build your self up to the power of Storm.

I have been totally soloing this wizard even with her higher fizzle rate and have not had too many defeats.

Current gear and proper deck set up are important for things to go more smoothly and a Spritely pet doesn't hurt either. I am taking my time and leveling this wizard to her max for each world she is in, this gives me an edge for the next world I enter.

Mary StormGem
"Trying to Save the Spiral"
Those are some good tips! I'm also in marleybone, but I feel kind of a low level... And you are right, a spritely pet does help!

Delver
Feb 25, 2013
252
jrw1962 on Oct 23, 2012 wrote:
Let's try this again...

I'll try to simplify it for many of you...
Take a coin, two sides, now negate any weight differential that would cause one side to come up MORE than another, also negate anything else that might favor one side over another like variances in tosses...
Each time you toss it, you have the potential for one of two possibilities...
But...
Each time heads comes up, the chance that it will come up again is decreased, why??

Because probability states that with enough tosses, the chances that one side will come up is 50%, that means that over 100 tosses, you should see an outcome nearly the same for how many times one side came up, 50 times heads, 50 times tails, or real close, over an infinite number of tosses, they will be equal. So, for 100 toss sample it could be 25 heads in a row, then 50 split evenly, so then the probability that 25 tails will come up is EXTREMELY high...
It is called "the relative frequency estimate of a probability".

So in this case, over a large enough number of spells cast with a potential 70% success rate, one should see that rate come out, my contention is that I am not experiencing it, in fact I see a nearly 50% failure rate on many spells...
Forget about specific spells, storm, whatever, with the exception of 100% marked spells, I am seeing a nearly 40%+ failure rate some days, across all spells cast..
this is actually more confusing...

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