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Winter Wonder 2017 Pack - broken? or unlucky

AuthorMessage
Survivor
Jul 26, 2012
4
Recently, I've had quite an unpleasant experience with the game, and decided to email KI about it, and they told me to bring it up on the forums so here goes:

MY EMAIL
----
I'm sorry to have to say this, but I am truly disgusted by the appalling drop rates for the Wolf of The Winter (PERM) mount. I have just gone through the tedious and frankly heartbreaking process of opening over 35k crowns worth of the winter wonder pack, and have gotten pretty much every single item in the pack at least 3/4 times, including the 7 day temporary Wolf and Snowhopper mounts and the Snowhopper pet - even BOTH Krampus and Deer Knight spells, which to my understanding is extremely rare.

I've seen people on youtube and forums got the permanent wolf mount after a few thousand crowns, and certainly within 10/15k crowns. I understand that it is all down to luck, but this is just ridiculous! 35k crowns and still nothing...

As a student, I save up to spend a bit and have some fun over the Christmas holidays where I actually have time to relax - but after going through this, it has killed my Christmas spirit. Not only am I not getting my money's worth, but am also very disappointed - I am a massive game of thrones fan and the wolf mount to me (maybe it was intended by KI as well) to be a reference to the series, as such I really wanted to get the mount. I love the game (wizard101) and have been playing it all the way since the level cap was 50, but after going through over 35k crowns (quite a large amount to me) and still am unable to get the permanent mount, I would be lying if I said I did not feel cheated in some way....

As I see it, and statistically speaking 35k+ crowns would've gotten me around 120 packs. With 7 items per pack that would mean I'd have 840 items. and unless the drop rate for the mount is under 0.12% (and i dont believe it can be any lower than that), 840 items would've given me at least one already (840 x 0.0012 = 1.008).

Either I am extremely extremely extremely unlucky (in this case I have nothing to say and nothing to do but to feel sorry for myself and perhaps decide to quit the game and stop spending on the game anymore to prevent future heartbreaks like this), or the drop rate is actually THAT ridiculously low (in this case, I have nothing to say other than that I am very disappointed in KI)
----

THEIR REPLY
----
We're sorry you're disappointed, but it's a random loot roll. Some items are very rare and not all packs come with a specific set of items. Please be aware that with all random chances, the odds of winning reset with each attempt. For example: If you have a 1 in 100 chance of obtaining a desired item, then each time you open a new pack, you have a 1% chance of obtaining the desired item. That does not mean if you open 100 packs, you will obtain that 1 desired item.

Although in game purchases are not eligible for a refund, please note the value of the items you did obtain far exceed the Crowns you have spent.

----

Mastermind
Jul 04, 2010
370
that's unlucky with the packs it is like the lottery complete chance i don't think it is worth spending the crowns on the packs for anything even if i did want that item.
when they do the give away for the 12 days of the spiral i get the free packs nothing from the first 2 and on the 3rd pack the winter wonder pack i got the snowhoppers sleigh permanent mount thats is just luck

A+ Student
Mar 31, 2009
1713
They are correct. If there is a 1% chance that does not guaruntee that you will get one within a hundred roles that's statistics and probability. There are the people that get the item on the 2nd or 3rd roll and are really happy. But for each person that that happens to there is going to be an even greater proportion that don't get it on the 200 or 300th roll. AKA You just have "bad luck." Is that the answer that you want to hear? No, no one wants to hear that answer. I think instead you should view this as a poweful lesson about gambling.

There is a problem within the gaming industry with this type of exploitative gambling. I do not think that this should be allowed ESPECIALLY in a KIDS game. Now, you can't get mad at KI too much because there are lots of games that are doing this, but I think that this is morally wrong to have "packs" because gambling is addictive and kids are just going to spend all their money. I don't think its healthy nor right.

I would urge you to stop wasting money on these packs and for KI to stop making them, but I don't imagine that they will until the law in the US changes. (I mean if you think about it, when you and others throw money away like that it does keep the game going for longer, but I still just don't think its right. Perhaps KI could be a trendsetter for games by phasing out the packs-however I don't know if they would do that.

Also don't feel too bad-I've been in your shoes before thinking "How come I can't get a" a certain spell from a pack or whatever. Bottom line is: the odds are stacked against you. Recognize that in gambling that there are winners and losers and at the moment "luck" is not in your favor. The fact that other people have gotten the items to me indicates that it is not "broken" only the principle is.

Sorry just my half-baked rant. I'm sorry that you aren't having luck getting the item that you want, but at the same time I hope that you realize that in games of chance the house always wins.

Good luck.

Astrologist
Mar 16, 2012
1061
DaiCanavan on Dec 14, 2017 wrote:
Recently, I've had quite an unpleasant experience with the game, and decided to email KI about it, and they told me to bring it up on the forums so here goes:

MY EMAIL
----
I'm sorry to have to say this, but I am truly disgusted by the appalling drop rates for the Wolf of The Winter (PERM) mount. I have just gone through the tedious and frankly heartbreaking process of opening over 35k crowns worth of the winter wonder pack, and have gotten pretty much every single item in the pack at least 3/4 times, including the 7 day temporary Wolf and Snowhopper mounts and the Snowhopper pet - even BOTH Krampus and Deer Knight spells, which to my understanding is extremely rare.

I've seen people on youtube and forums got the permanent wolf mount after a few thousand crowns, and certainly within 10/15k crowns. I understand that it is all down to luck, but this is just ridiculous! 35k crowns and still nothing...

As a student, I save up to spend a bit and have some fun over the Christmas holidays where I actually have time to relax - but after going through this, it has killed my Christmas spirit. Not only am I not getting my money's worth, but am also very disappointed - I am a massive game of thrones fan and the wolf mount to me (maybe it was intended by KI as well) to be a reference to the series, as such I really wanted to get the mount. I love the game (wizard101) and have been playing it all the way since the level cap was 50, but after going through over 35k crowns (quite a large amount to me) and still am unable to get the permanent mount, I would be lying if I said I did not feel cheated in some way....

As I see it, and statistically speaking 35k+ crowns would've gotten me around 120 packs. With 7 items per pack that would mean I'd have 840 items. and unless the drop rate for the mount is under 0.12% (and i dont believe it can be any lower than that), 840 items would've given me at least one already (840 x 0.0012 = 1.008).

Either I am extremely extremely extremely unlucky (in this case I have nothing to say and nothing to do but to feel sorry for myself and perhaps decide to quit the game and stop spending on the game anymore to prevent future heartbreaks like this), or the drop rate is actually THAT ridiculously low (in this case, I have nothing to say other than that I am very disappointed in KI)
----

THEIR REPLY
----
We're sorry you're disappointed, but it's a random loot roll. Some items are very rare and not all packs come with a specific set of items. Please be aware that with all random chances, the odds of winning reset with each attempt. For example: If you have a 1 in 100 chance of obtaining a desired item, then each time you open a new pack, you have a 1% chance of obtaining the desired item. That does not mean if you open 100 packs, you will obtain that 1 desired item.

Although in game purchases are not eligible for a refund, please note the value of the items you did obtain far exceed the Crowns you have spent.

----
KingsIsle's reply was right and certainly what I would have replied to you. You got both the Krampus and Reindeer Knight spells? ( not as TC? ) Then I would say you got your money's worth, that it wasn't what you wanted, is no fault of KingsIsle.
P.S. if you really want that mount come over to Pirate101, it's in the crowns shop without the need to buy a pack. And P101 is a whole lot of fun as well.

Armiger
Jan 18, 2010
2280
Not a great way to start your holidays off I can imagine.
A couple of us can unfortunately relate to your case as we've been the victim of farming packs to no avail.

But, let me just say: Cudos to gaining the two spells available from the pack! I've known of a couple others who were in deeper than you in regards to crowns just for the spells. They've still failed to win the spells but a few have however gotten the mount while others haven't gotten either.

Now, allow me to offer an apology too. With the introduction of packs serving as a great income to KI, I don't see the % of the more sought after items within the pack being altered anytime soon. That said, there will of course be a few tears shed by a few wizards who just seem to can't break that glass ceiling of luck.

While I cannot comment on the actual % drops of the rarer items since I don't know the figures, I can only put a guess as to why gaining these items just have to be this difficult; part of this ties in to what I mentioned above.

While it definitely does stick to not have gotten what you've been after I feel that game can probably consider sending you a consolation prize (the mount) for all your support.

It is the season for giving after all!


Illuminator
Aug 03, 2016
1475
This has been discussed in other threads (not lecturing, but pointing out since you may wish to read those, because it was a fairly in depth discussion) about other packs, too.

I have spent an 'insane' amount on packs and did not get the mount or item I was after. It's a very very very distant chance of getting the permanent mount in the ad.

I'm not blaming KI and I do not feel they 'owe' me anything but the fact remains the drop rates are abysmal for the things most people are buying those packs for.

I do think the rates should be shifted more toward winning, because no one should be able to spend hundreds of dollars worth of crowns, (hypothetically peaking, *ahem*) and still not win the item that amounts to 5000 crowns.

You do usually get some decent gear but to get the matching set might again be difficult.

In those other threads one thing I suggested was to please at least vary the 'common' items a bit more, or make them dyeable, etc. Some cannot even be resold.
I would also like to see fewer treasure cards in the packs. Once my treasure cards fill up I cannot buy more packs, so it seems counter intuitive from both seller and buyer side.

It's very time consuming and troublesome to go through and sell treasure cards.

I do strongly feel the drop rate is too low, and/or that the mounts should be available for simple purchase in the crowns shop, at least the following year. Again that was gone into, in depth, in the past threads if you're interested.

I got reamed for saying that it is not a matter of spending a certain amount and then winning x item is inevitable; but that is the simple truth, verified by KI's reply to your email.

Survivor
Jul 26, 2012
4
+ Regarding what KI said about “please note the value of the items you did obtain far exceed the Crowns you have spent.” - really?

Am I actually going to use the pack gear (apart from the ones with energy boost) when there are better alternatives that can be farmed? How often will I be in my house looking at the snow basins or snow piles or trees etc. etc.? Even if the argument was, well you got many of these items, e.g. the pet which is cute (not gonna lie), or maybe the gear, this make your money worth right? - Well, can a wizard equip multiple sets of gear or pets at a given time? NO. Economics has a term called marginal utility, after getting one of something, getting another unit of the same thing does not yield the same amount of utility as the first. i.e. If I gave a 7-yr-old a chocolate, he/she would be thrilled, if I gave him/her another, they’d still be thrilled. When you reach the 10th, they’d probably not enjoy he 10th as much anymore. When you reach the 50th, they’d probably start getting sick, and there we have negative marginal utility. - to me, its the same thing when I get tens of the same item (even worse when I don’t have any use for it) A SUGGESTION?
Maybe a point system could be implemented where people could trade in items from packs that they don’t like or want. These points would accumulate, and after reaching a certain number of points, these points could be exchanged into items from the pack? - At least this way, unlucky souls like me wouldn’t be left miserable at the end of the day after spending 45k crowns.

Survivor
Jul 26, 2012
4
anecorbie on Dec 14, 2017 wrote:
KingsIsle's reply was right and certainly what I would have replied to you. You got both the Krampus and Reindeer Knight spells? ( not as TC? ) Then I would say you got your money's worth, that it wasn't what you wanted, is no fault of KingsIsle.
P.S. if you really want that mount come over to Pirate101, it's in the crowns shop without the need to buy a pack. And P101 is a whole lot of fun as well.
If I have to switch to Pirate101 just to get the mount, then well... I don't know about you but seems to me that Wiz101 isn't very customer friendly then? i.e. I have to switch over to another game, learn the game and start from scratch, not to mention pay for memberships, farm for gear, etc etc.... big price to pay just for a mount no?

A+ Student
Dec 24, 2009
1895
Buying a pack in the hope of getting ONE item is playing a game of chance.

So complaining to support that we spent $X dollars and didn't get Y prize from a crowns pack is not appropriate. We gambled and we lost.

Let me say it again: Buying crowns packs for one particular prize is gambling.

With every crowns pack purchase, we have a CHANCE to win (whatever it is that we want). Let's say the drop rate is 1/1000. That means the odds are that 1 out of 1000 packs we buy will drop the (whatever it is that we want). One pack will drop it and the other 999 won't. The odds are written as a ratio that looks like this: 999:1. We could get (the thing we want) on the first pack we ever buy. Lucky us! But guess what? the odds reset with the very next purchase and never change no matter how many packs we buy.

With every single purchase, we still have only 1/1000 chance of getting (whatever it is that we want).

Why?

Because every single purchase is a new gamble where the odds are set at 999:1. That means, we have 999 chances to lose and only 1 chance to win. Every single time, those are the odds we face.

Nothing is broken, this is just the way that odds and probability work.

Alia Misthaven

Champion
Jan 27, 2010
405
Welcome to the club OP.

A few months back I found myself in almost the exact same situation as you (l even sent an email and got almost the exact same response you got), and as a result I just don't buy any non-bundle packs anymore because IMO it makes no sense to keep spending money/crowns in an attempt to get something that chances are I'm never going to get anyway.

I would like to say you'll have better luck next time (assuming that you'll even still buy non-bundle packs after the situation you described), but that's probably not true seeing as I've been playing the game since 2010 and have only got a perm mount from a non-bundle pack once.

Illuminator
Aug 03, 2016
1475
Star Edward on Dec 15, 2017 wrote:
Not a great way to start your holidays off I can imagine.
A couple of us can unfortunately relate to your case as we've been the victim of farming packs to no avail.

But, let me just say: Cudos to gaining the two spells available from the pack! I've known of a couple others who were in deeper than you in regards to crowns just for the spells. They've still failed to win the spells but a few have however gotten the mount while others haven't gotten either.

Now, allow me to offer an apology too. With the introduction of packs serving as a great income to KI, I don't see the % of the more sought after items within the pack being altered anytime soon. That said, there will of course be a few tears shed by a few wizards who just seem to can't break that glass ceiling of luck.

While I cannot comment on the actual % drops of the rarer items since I don't know the figures, I can only put a guess as to why gaining these items just have to be this difficult; part of this ties in to what I mentioned above.

While it definitely does stick to not have gotten what you've been after I feel that game can probably consider sending you a consolation prize (the mount) for all your support.

It is the season for giving after all!

I didn't get any spells nor did I get any permanent mounts.



Dem's the breaks I guess.

I do think it feels a bit like those carnival games. So few seem to win.

I should learn my lesson, eh? I think I will.

I have almost nothing to spend on myself this holiday season solely due to buying packs in this virtual world.


Astrologist
Mar 16, 2012
1061
DaiCanavan on Dec 15, 2017 wrote:
+ Regarding what KI said about “please note the value of the items you did obtain far exceed the Crowns you have spent.” - really?

Am I actually going to use the pack gear (apart from the ones with energy boost) when there are better alternatives that can be farmed? How often will I be in my house looking at the snow basins or snow piles or trees etc. etc.? Even if the argument was, well you got many of these items, e.g. the pet which is cute (not gonna lie), or maybe the gear, this make your money worth right? - Well, can a wizard equip multiple sets of gear or pets at a given time? NO. Economics has a term called marginal utility, after getting one of something, getting another unit of the same thing does not yield the same amount of utility as the first. i.e. If I gave a 7-yr-old a chocolate, he/she would be thrilled, if I gave him/her another, they’d still be thrilled. When you reach the 10th, they’d probably not enjoy he 10th as much anymore. When you reach the 50th, they’d probably start getting sick, and there we have negative marginal utility. - to me, its the same thing when I get tens of the same item (even worse when I don’t have any use for it) A SUGGESTION?
Maybe a point system could be implemented where people could trade in items from packs that they don’t like or want. These points would accumulate, and after reaching a certain number of points, these points could be exchanged into items from the pack? - At least this way, unlucky souls like me wouldn’t be left miserable at the end of the day after spending 45k crowns.
But you can pass on these items to your other wizards, as many as you have that can use them. Which is what I do for mine when I get a multitude of sets. If they can't use them now, then when they level up, it's there waiting for them.

Astrologist
Mar 16, 2012
1061
DaiCanavan on Dec 15, 2017 wrote:
If I have to switch to Pirate101 just to get the mount, then well... I don't know about you but seems to me that Wiz101 isn't very customer friendly then? i.e. I have to switch over to another game, learn the game and start from scratch, not to mention pay for memberships, farm for gear, etc etc.... big price to pay just for a mount no?
It's up to you, friend. you were the one who mentioned that you are a big Game of Thrones fan. But you also got several temporary mounts - just check the Crowns Shop and see what the cost in crowns are for the rental of the most desirable mounts.
Not to mention that you received 2 permanent spells that most players would give a lot to get
I have bought zones in both W101 & P101, thank goodness Ki allows that option for players

Survivor
Jul 26, 2012
4
Freshta on Dec 15, 2017 wrote:
Buying a pack in the hope of getting ONE item is playing a game of chance.

So complaining to support that we spent $X dollars and didn't get Y prize from a crowns pack is not appropriate. We gambled and we lost.

Let me say it again: Buying crowns packs for one particular prize is gambling.

With every crowns pack purchase, we have a CHANCE to win (whatever it is that we want). Let's say the drop rate is 1/1000. That means the odds are that 1 out of 1000 packs we buy will drop the (whatever it is that we want). One pack will drop it and the other 999 won't. The odds are written as a ratio that looks like this: 999:1. We could get (the thing we want) on the first pack we ever buy. Lucky us! But guess what? the odds reset with the very next purchase and never change no matter how many packs we buy.

With every single purchase, we still have only 1/1000 chance of getting (whatever it is that we want).

Why?

Because every single purchase is a new gamble where the odds are set at 999:1. That means, we have 999 chances to lose and only 1 chance to win. Every single time, those are the odds we face.

Nothing is broken, this is just the way that odds and probability work.

Alia Misthaven
Yes I fully understand as KI and many others have pointed out here that the odds reset every draw (I study econometrics and math), and Ill share my response to that (the same one I replied to KI, and one that I've tried to post on here earlier but for some reason, hasn't gone up). I followed the example KI gave in one of their emails to me of a 1/100 chance (1%, seems reasonable for a very rare item) of a desired items: do take a look at this:

1. For NO desired item in a pack of 7 items,
Probability = (99/100)^7 = 0.9320653479 = 93.21% (ok fair enough high chance of not getting the 'desired item')
** every item will NOT be the ‘desired item’
** ‘undesired item’ probability = 1 - (1/100) = (99/100)

2. With 120 packs, i.e. 120 trials, (for my case since i've gone through 35k crowns so roughly 120 pack)
Let X be the number of packs with NO desired items in it.
X is binomially distributed: X ~ B(120, 0.9320653479)
P(X = 120) = (0.9320653479)^120 = 0.000215576607 = 0.02156%(wow, pretty much impossible i'd think? don't you?)

3. Conclusion: 0.02156% chance of getting 0 of the desired item after 120 packs

You could have a 1 in 200 chance of getting the desired item, and even so, using the same method after 120 packs, the probability of getting 0 of the desired item would be 1.5%. The math doesn't lie.

I don't know if anyone has ever calculated this, but from a statistical standpoint, it seems quite unreasonable that I (or anyone else who fall victim to this) have not gotten the desired item after so many packs considering the scant probability of this happening.

Now THIS is my 'problem' with this situation. What do you guys think?

A+ Student
Dec 11, 2010
1665
1 word
Unlucky

I am sorry that you didnt get what you want you wanted, but that's how packs work. I've gotten like 4 hydra mounts from hydra hoard just trying to get beast pets, what can I do with that many hydras? Decoration

Before you say this practice is dumb, it is literally the same thing as blind bags and card packs. The only difference is you cant give the contents to another person (unless you got a Treasure card)

Heard this whining countless times, and it's getting pretty old.
You took a risk, you got something, now be happy.

If you want easy mounts that originally were in packs, pirate101 sometimes gets them in. (And honestly it's worth playing both wizard101 and Pirate101)

Illuminator
Aug 03, 2016
1475
"I don't know if anyone has ever calculated this, but from a statistical standpoint, it seems quite unreasonable that I (or anyone else who fall victim to this) have not gotten the desired item after so many packs considering the scant probability of this happening.

Now THIS is my 'problem' with this situation. What do you guys think?"

I think the odds are too slim, if I'm blunt.

I think what's available in Pirate 101 to buy outright should also be available in Wizard 101 to buy outright. (Namely, the coveted mount, "at least the following year" as I said upthread.


I think it's well and good for some to tell us we cannot complain but, if KI allows us to complain, then they clearly disagree with that sentiment.

Can we say KI didn't warn us the odds are very slim and there are no guarantees? No we cannot say that. They did warn us.


Can we complain? Yes and it helps some people to vent and thereby feel 'better.'

As for what is a valid complaint, which is different than the validity of complaining itself, I feel that the nearly nil odds are a valid complaint topic. I see no reason those cannot be tweaked to something a bit more reasonable. It shouldn't quite be like Vegas, especially as there are children playing. Just my opinion, which won't buy a bus ticket.

A+ Student
Mar 31, 2009
1713
DaiCanavan on Dec 16, 2017 wrote:
Yes I fully understand as KI and many others have pointed out here that the odds reset every draw (I study econometrics and math), and Ill share my response to that (the same one I replied to KI, and one that I've tried to post on here earlier but for some reason, hasn't gone up). I followed the example KI gave in one of their emails to me of a 1/100 chance (1%, seems reasonable for a very rare item) of a desired items: do take a look at this:

1. For NO desired item in a pack of 7 items,
Probability = (99/100)^7 = 0.9320653479 = 93.21% (ok fair enough high chance of not getting the 'desired item')
** every item will NOT be the ‘desired item’
** ‘undesired item’ probability = 1 - (1/100) = (99/100)

2. With 120 packs, i.e. 120 trials, (for my case since i've gone through 35k crowns so roughly 120 pack)
Let X be the number of packs with NO desired items in it.
X is binomially distributed: X ~ B(120, 0.9320653479)
P(X = 120) = (0.9320653479)^120 = 0.000215576607 = 0.02156%(wow, pretty much impossible i'd think? don't you?)

3. Conclusion: 0.02156% chance of getting 0 of the desired item after 120 packs

You could have a 1 in 200 chance of getting the desired item, and even so, using the same method after 120 packs, the probability of getting 0 of the desired item would be 1.5%. The math doesn't lie.

I don't know if anyone has ever calculated this, but from a statistical standpoint, it seems quite unreasonable that I (or anyone else who fall victim to this) have not gotten the desired item after so many packs considering the scant probability of this happening.

Now THIS is my 'problem' with this situation. What do you guys think?
Two problems that I see with your logic.

1. Your sample size is too low. It would be more accurate if you polled a larger number of individuals to see how many attempts it took them to get the mount. I know for example that both Blue and Blaze Lifehammer from Youtube both got the mount and it took them about the same or less as you to both get the mount. Not to mention other players that have got the mount in game that we don't know about.

2. KI didn't say that the probability of getting a that particular mount is 1%. They used the term "for example" indicating that it is an example. So the probability could still be very low and in fact I would imagine that it is as there is probably "weighted probabilities" in that you have a better chance of getting a "common" or other junk item than you do something that would seem to be of value such as spells or mounts. Also considering there are 312 clothing items plus 130 non-clothing items. So just looking at non-clothing items along without weight there would only be a 1/130 or a 0.769% or 1/312 is 0.32% or 1/442 is 0.226%. Moral of the story-I think a number of your assumptions are flawed for your calculation.

Also say there is a Million Wizard101 players- just making stuff up here so maybe my assumption is wrong too (I know they had that 15 Million player monolith a few years ago) your statistic of .02156% may seem low, but that's about 215 people that would be as you put "(wow, pretty much impossible i'd think? don't you?)"

A+ Student
Dec 24, 2009
1895
DaiCanavan on Dec 16, 2017 wrote:
Yes I fully understand as KI and many others have pointed out here that the odds reset every draw (I study econometrics and math), and Ill share my response to that (the same one I replied to KI, and one that I've tried to post on here earlier but for some reason, hasn't gone up). I followed the example KI gave in one of their emails to me of a 1/100 chance (1%, seems reasonable for a very rare item) of a desired items: do take a look at this:

1. For NO desired item in a pack of 7 items,
Probability = (99/100)^7 = 0.9320653479 = 93.21% (ok fair enough high chance of not getting the 'desired item')
** every item will NOT be the ‘desired item’
** ‘undesired item’ probability = 1 - (1/100) = (99/100)

2. With 120 packs, i.e. 120 trials, (for my case since i've gone through 35k crowns so roughly 120 pack)
Let X be the number of packs with NO desired items in it.
X is binomially distributed: X ~ B(120, 0.9320653479)
P(X = 120) = (0.9320653479)^120 = 0.000215576607 = 0.02156%(wow, pretty much impossible i'd think? don't you?)

3. Conclusion: 0.02156% chance of getting 0 of the desired item after 120 packs

You could have a 1 in 200 chance of getting the desired item, and even so, using the same method after 120 packs, the probability of getting 0 of the desired item would be 1.5%. The math doesn't lie.

I don't know if anyone has ever calculated this, but from a statistical standpoint, it seems quite unreasonable that I (or anyone else who fall victim to this) have not gotten the desired item after so many packs considering the scant probability of this happening.

Now THIS is my 'problem' with this situation. What do you guys think?
I do agree with the statistics for a probability run that seem to suggest an eventual win if you just gamble enough times. That feels like common sense, doesn't it? (It's also how casinos run their slot machines!) But, as you know, there's always someone who is going to be that unlucky 1.5% that you calculated for a 1/200 drop rate.

There is nothing wrong with your math, and I'm not sure that I am wording this correctly, but you are working with a premise that the drop rate for the mount is 1%. In all honesty, I suspect it is far lower than that. That's why I used the 1/1000 ratio.

If it makes you feel better, know that my Ice wizard got neither the mount nor the spell, and she also had a hard time getting the robe. I kept buying and buying just to get the ROBE but finally had to stop when I hit my limit. The next day, I decided to try five more times, and finally got the robe that way. But, still no mount and no spell. I think the total spent was roughly 30,000 crowns (which is 100 packs, give or take).

Alia Misthaven

Armiger
Jan 18, 2010
2280
Understand that "luck" does not care about statistics or probabilities.

It's either you have it or not.
While I sympathize a little I would've stopped at back 20. 120 packs seemed a bit too much just trying for one mount.

It would be nice to see the mount be available in the crown shop, but with the fact remaining that many players will divulge in the pack just to get the mount, KI placing it in the crown shop will work out to them loosing money as opposed to having it in packs. I'm sure they thought of placing it there but the economics and finance disagreed with them if you will.

I feel it's over at P101 just because of the low amount of persons playing the game currently.

It's good to voice your opinion. Letting it all out.
We heard.
KI heard.

What can be done about it?
Nothing..

Just to move on..


Survivor
Oct 30, 2009
18
I do think it's reasonable to let KI know we want something like a pity timer