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storm fizzles to much

1
AuthorMessage
Survivor
Apr 16, 2012
42
Dear KI wizard101 creators,

Sorry to complain, but i know schools have there advantages and disadvantages ( i read it ) but storm shouldn't fizzle that often. Who agrees?

Alexis SilverHeart, lvl 33 storm, Thank You.

Administrator
Storm is supposed to fizzle more often.

Storm has the lowest accuracy but it also has the highest damage. You can't have the best of everything, something must be sacrificed and for Storm Wizards, that's sacrifice comes in the form of lower accuracy spells.


community@wizard101.com
Archon
Oct 24, 2010
4952
9635lexi on Oct 15, 2012 wrote:
Dear KI wizard101 creators,

Sorry to complain, but i know schools have there advantages and disadvantages ( i read it ) but storm shouldn't fizzle that often. Who agrees?

Alexis SilverHeart, lvl 33 storm, Thank You.
You can build up accuracy by getting the correct gear; it does help. :)

Adherent
Jul 03, 2010
2634
9635lexi on Oct 15, 2012 wrote:
Dear KI wizard101 creators,

Sorry to complain, but i know schools have there advantages and disadvantages ( i read it ) but storm shouldn't fizzle that often. Who agrees?

Alexis SilverHeart, lvl 33 storm, Thank You.
I agree but I see the point of it - all schools have their ups and downs. Currently I have a Storm wizard in Marleybone and with gear help the fizzle rate is getting better, it's a matter of patience to just wait to build your self up to the power of Storm.

I have been totally soloing this wizard even with her higher fizzle rate and have not had too many defeats.

Current gear and proper deck set up are important for things to go more smoothly and a Spritely pet doesn't hurt either. I am taking my time and leveling this wizard to her max for each world she is in, this gives me an edge for the next world I enter.

Mary StormGem
"Trying to Save the Spiral"

Illuminator
Feb 24, 2009
1357
...This is ironic because with waterworks gear, storm has the best overall accuracy.. (Or 1% off or something..)

LOL. Either way, you are suppose to fizzle if you deal almost 300 damage with 2 pips at level 5.

Survivor
Jun 16, 2012
10
Sorry, but as one who is OLD enough to understand statistics and probabilities, and majored in Mathematics, the failure rates on ANY spell are way too high compared to the statistical probabilities of the percentages listed on the spell cards...

A 70% card SHOULD succeed 7 out of 10 times, that is what the percentage indicates. Can multiple failures occur, yep, but every time the spell fails, your statistical probability should INCREASE that the next time you cast it, it should succeed.

This was the case when I first signed up a few months ago, but recently, I would say in the last week or two, it appears that someone "messed" with the random number generator, and the "Fizzle" rate has gone through the roof.

Multiple failures can occur, even back to back failures, but when they occur with regularity over several days, with an obvious pattern occurring, one can only surmise that there is a problem....

The patterns I am seeing, where the SAME spell always fails the first two times I try to cast it in a battle, EVERY battle, that is NOT statistically possible...
This should be the rarity, not the norm...

I think someone needs to look into this more seriously...

Defender
Nov 19, 2009
127
jrw1962 on Oct 22, 2012 wrote:
Sorry, but as one who is OLD enough to understand statistics and probabilities, and majored in Mathematics, the failure rates on ANY spell are way too high compared to the statistical probabilities of the percentages listed on the spell cards...

A 70% card SHOULD succeed 7 out of 10 times, that is what the percentage indicates. Can multiple failures occur, yep, but every time the spell fails, your statistical probability should INCREASE that the next time you cast it, it should succeed.

This was the case when I first signed up a few months ago, but recently, I would say in the last week or two, it appears that someone "messed" with the random number generator, and the "Fizzle" rate has gone through the roof.

Multiple failures can occur, even back to back failures, but when they occur with regularity over several days, with an obvious pattern occurring, one can only surmise that there is a problem....

The patterns I am seeing, where the SAME spell always fails the first two times I try to cast it in a battle, EVERY battle, that is NOT statistically possible...
This should be the rarity, not the norm...

I think someone needs to look into this more seriously...
Wrong, wrong, wrong. The percentage is the chance. A life could fizzle every single time they cast a spell that is 90%, and storm could never fizzle any spell. It resets for this to be, very rarely, possible.

Adherent
Jul 03, 2010
2634
jrw1962 on Oct 22, 2012 wrote:
Sorry, but as one who is OLD enough to understand statistics and probabilities, and majored in Mathematics, the failure rates on ANY spell are way too high compared to the statistical probabilities of the percentages listed on the spell cards...

A 70% card SHOULD succeed 7 out of 10 times, that is what the percentage indicates. Can multiple failures occur, yep, but every time the spell fails, your statistical probability should INCREASE that the next time you cast it, it should succeed.

This was the case when I first signed up a few months ago, but recently, I would say in the last week or two, it appears that someone "messed" with the random number generator, and the "Fizzle" rate has gone through the roof.

Multiple failures can occur, even back to back failures, but when they occur with regularity over several days, with an obvious pattern occurring, one can only surmise that there is a problem....

The patterns I am seeing, where the SAME spell always fails the first two times I try to cast it in a battle, EVERY battle, that is NOT statistically possible...
This should be the rarity, not the norm...

I think someone needs to look into this more seriously...
I can some what see this - we have a death wizard that tends to fizzle on every first cast spell - which is usually Scare Crow after blades and a few traps are put out. As fighting becomes more difficult and resources to fortify your wizards gear do not this can be instant defeat.

On my storm wizard I load 2 of each spell in allowing for the first one to fizzle and hope the second one is usable in hand because the fizzled one usually always get put back in deck not hand. I have fizzled 4 x's in a row but as my level is getting higher it is reducing to 2 x's in a row.

Survivor
Feb 06, 2012
7
It seems to me that you probably didn't pay attention much in those statistics classes you took.

If your accuracy is 70%, then you have a 30% chance of fizzling every time you cast a spell. If you fail once, then your chance of fizzling the next time is STILL 30%. And if you have bad luck and fizzle again, then you're chance of fizzling the third time is STILL 30%.

Your probability of success doesn't increase just because you failed the first time. It's exactly the same every time.

I have a feeling you're exaggerating when you say you miss the first two times every battle. But even if you aren't, that's not statistically impossible, just extremely rare.

Survivor
Apr 16, 2012
42
Yay, what lvl does that say? if it says 35 i just got to lvl 36. And my accuracy is good with my gear now! and resistance, and to much mana if there is such a thing, I have 358 mana, thats high for my lvl.

Alexis SilverHeart, Lvl 36 storm, creator of this topic.

Thanks for repling, if i could only get my sister too LOL
And mostly if i fizzle, i don't fizzle the next time, and katiebex, yes i did notice, just 70 isnt a whole lot.

Survivor
Apr 16, 2012
42
jwersan, yes i am OLD enough, and have a HIGH math level and it does suck to have the lowest accuracy but hey, storm is supposed to be the highest in damage. :) yay.

Survivor
Apr 17, 2012
3
i am replying for my sis 9635lexi and storm does fizzle to much. i love when enemys are storm then they fizzled more often and fire tends to fiz alot too example: i wanted to do meteor strike and i fizzled so i tryed again and fizzled again!!! GRRRRR i hate fizzles!! ms.grayrose what wrong with fizzles? (this example really happened)

Ashley WinterFlower magus lvl 30 fire

thx for reading my post lol you didnt have to

Survivor
Jun 16, 2012
10
katiebex on Oct 22, 2012 wrote:
It seems to me that you probably didn't pay attention much in those statistics classes you took.

If your accuracy is 70%, then you have a 30% chance of fizzling every time you cast a spell. If you fail once, then your chance of fizzling the next time is STILL 30%. And if you have bad luck and fizzle again, then you're chance of fizzling the third time is STILL 30%.

Your probability of success doesn't increase just because you failed the first time. It's exactly the same every time.

I have a feeling you're exaggerating when you say you miss the first two times every battle. But even if you aren't, that's not statistically impossible, just extremely rare.
Let's try this again...

I'll try to simplify it for many of you...
Take a coin, two sides, now negate any weight differential that would cause one side to come up MORE than another, also negate anything else that might favor one side over another like variances in tosses...
Each time you toss it, you have the potential for one of two possibilities...
But...
Each time heads comes up, the chance that it will come up again is decreased, why??

Because probability states that with enough tosses, the chances that one side will come up is 50%, that means that over 100 tosses, you should see an outcome nearly the same for how many times one side came up, 50 times heads, 50 times tails, or real close, over an infinite number of tosses, they will be equal. So, for 100 toss sample it could be 25 heads in a row, then 50 split evenly, so then the probability that 25 tails will come up is EXTREMELY high...
It is called "the relative frequency estimate of a probability".

So in this case, over a large enough number of spells cast with a potential 70% success rate, one should see that rate come out, my contention is that I am not experiencing it, in fact I see a nearly 50% failure rate on many spells...
Forget about specific spells, storm, whatever, with the exception of 100% marked spells, I am seeing a nearly 40%+ failure rate some days, across all spells cast..

Survivor
Dec 27, 2010
39
9635lexi on Oct 15, 2012 wrote:
Dear KI wizard101 creators,

Sorry to complain, but i know schools have there advantages and disadvantages ( i read it ) but storm shouldn't fizzle that often. Who agrees?

Alexis SilverHeart, lvl 33 storm, Thank You.
simple. all it is is one of the disadnavtages.

Survivor
Aug 13, 2009
3
If that is so professor greyrose, then please indulge me on the fact of why our health is so low and not too mention our resistance?

Defender
Aug 01, 2011
185
StrafeX on Oct 26, 2012 wrote:
If that is so professor greyrose, then please indulge me on the fact of why our health is so low and not too mention our resistance?
That's the reason. Storms health HAS to be low because of the damage. Do you want a person with good damage attacking you and being so annoying to defeat? The resistance is the same thing. That would make storm a complete overpowered school.

Defender
Feb 24, 2012
192
jrw1962 on Oct 23, 2012 wrote:
Let's try this again...

I'll try to simplify it for many of you...
Take a coin, two sides, now negate any weight differential that would cause one side to come up MORE than another, also negate anything else that might favor one side over another like variances in tosses...
Each time you toss it, you have the potential for one of two possibilities...
But...
Each time heads comes up, the chance that it will come up again is decreased, why??

Because probability states that with enough tosses, the chances that one side will come up is 50%, that means that over 100 tosses, you should see an outcome nearly the same for how many times one side came up, 50 times heads, 50 times tails, or real close, over an infinite number of tosses, they will be equal. So, for 100 toss sample it could be 25 heads in a row, then 50 split evenly, so then the probability that 25 tails will come up is EXTREMELY high...
It is called "the relative frequency estimate of a probability".

So in this case, over a large enough number of spells cast with a potential 70% success rate, one should see that rate come out, my contention is that I am not experiencing it, in fact I see a nearly 50% failure rate on many spells...
Forget about specific spells, storm, whatever, with the exception of 100% marked spells, I am seeing a nearly 40%+ failure rate some days, across all spells cast..
You are thinking to much into this let me simplify it for you.

Take a 100 sided dice and roll it. Probability may increase through out the number of rolls that you roll. But will you roll over 80 everytime no. So that is how to think of this . Some times people just make things more difficult than what they actually are.

Also Ambrose has stated in the past that the system does increase your chances through out the duration of fizzling but it is still rolling the dice each time and you will always have a chance to fizzle even if your accuracy is over 100%, It may be next to never when its over 100 but there will always be chance.

Ive tested this with my fire wiz, He has 30 accuracy (so his 75% spells have a 105% chance) yet he does fizzle occasionally, Not often at all but it does still happen once in a blue moon.

Hero
Jul 30, 2012
771
jrw1962 on Oct 23, 2012 wrote:
Let's try this again...

I'll try to simplify it for many of you...
Take a coin, two sides, now negate any weight differential that would cause one side to come up MORE than another, also negate anything else that might favor one side over another like variances in tosses...
Each time you toss it, you have the potential for one of two possibilities...
But...
Each time heads comes up, the chance that it will come up again is decreased, why??

Because probability states that with enough tosses, the chances that one side will come up is 50%, that means that over 100 tosses, you should see an outcome nearly the same for how many times one side came up, 50 times heads, 50 times tails, or real close, over an infinite number of tosses, they will be equal. So, for 100 toss sample it could be 25 heads in a row, then 50 split evenly, so then the probability that 25 tails will come up is EXTREMELY high...
It is called "the relative frequency estimate of a probability".

So in this case, over a large enough number of spells cast with a potential 70% success rate, one should see that rate come out, my contention is that I am not experiencing it, in fact I see a nearly 50% failure rate on many spells...
Forget about specific spells, storm, whatever, with the exception of 100% marked spells, I am seeing a nearly 40%+ failure rate some days, across all spells cast..
History has no bearing on a coin toss.
The probability of throwing a coin ten times and having the same outcome is extremely low, but every time you toss it there is a 50/50 chance.

I think what you are trying to say is that over the course of a day, a spell that has 30% chance of failure should have failed 30% of the time.

I have certainly never experienced a 50% failure rate of my spells over a 30 minute period of time, and I have no bonuses would help this.

An expert at stats doesn't guess, they collect some data then present the results! Part of the ingrained learning. Simply cast a given spell 50 times and record the results. I did, it wasn't hard, doesn't take much time. Perhaps KI did make a mistake with one of your spells, and I'm sure they would find a quantitave test and results helpful. General hand-waving might not be so helpful.

Survivor
Jul 27, 2012
7
StrafeX on Oct 26, 2012 wrote:
If that is so professor greyrose, then please indulge me on the fact of why our health is so low and not too mention our resistance?
Well said... I have to agree. It seems my storm wizard has fewer hit points than other wizards I've created at the same level. I understand why the accuracy is lower, because the spells deal more damage. But it seems storm wizards are penalized in other ways (fewer hit points, lesser resistance). Why

Explorer
Mar 18, 2012
97
Think about it: Storm fizzles a lot, and that is why they have a lot of mana. Because when storm fizzles, there mana is lost and there is nothing they can do about it. That is the reason they have a lot of mana, so they cannot run out of mana because of fizzles. Every school has there ups and downs, and you just gotta deal with it. On the bright side, Storm has very unique, high damage spells. You cannot expect for Storm to have everything, you don't always get what you want. Besides, if they didn't fizzle, that would make Storm the best school. KI and other wizards wouldn't like that, it would just make them regret making there Wizard which could be another school, and makes them feel bad.

Astrologist
Aug 20, 2011
1077
jrw1962 on Oct 22, 2012 wrote:
Sorry, but as one who is OLD enough to understand statistics and probabilities, and majored in Mathematics, the failure rates on ANY spell are way too high compared to the statistical probabilities of the percentages listed on the spell cards...

A 70% card SHOULD succeed 7 out of 10 times, that is what the percentage indicates. Can multiple failures occur, yep, but every time the spell fails, your statistical probability should INCREASE that the next time you cast it, it should succeed.

This was the case when I first signed up a few months ago, but recently, I would say in the last week or two, it appears that someone "messed" with the random number generator, and the "Fizzle" rate has gone through the roof.

Multiple failures can occur, even back to back failures, but when they occur with regularity over several days, with an obvious pattern occurring, one can only surmise that there is a problem....

The patterns I am seeing, where the SAME spell always fails the first two times I try to cast it in a battle, EVERY battle, that is NOT statistically possible...
This should be the rarity, not the norm...

I think someone needs to look into this more seriously...
Statistics background here too, I fully agree. Fizzle rates are just too high in many cases, and in my observation, specific spells are more likely to fizz than others with the same numerical accuracy rating (e.g., ice stun, weakness).

Survivor
Jan 16, 2013
32
9635QM i am replying to you. meteor strikes that you first get should never fizzle. they say 100%. but if you are talking about a worse kind of strike, i dont have any so i am not one to talk.

Archon
Feb 07, 2011
3175
StrafeX on Oct 26, 2012 wrote:
If that is so professor greyrose, then please indulge me on the fact of why our health is so low and not too mention our resistance?
storm's health and resist/block are low because it has the highest damage; our job is to kill before we get killed.
as for the high fizzle rates, it's just like in real life~ lightning never strikes the same target twice.

that said, those stats can all be improved later on if you have the right gear.

sestiva's health is around 2400 and she has 27 universal resist~ could have upped it to 34, but chose to boost her damage and accuracy instead.she is in her ww set (finally got that robe i've been chasing for months) and has a pet with proof, may cast fairy, and storm sniper... meaning by the time Fluffy levels to epic, she will have 100% accuracy; even at 99, she rarely fizzles and has the highest accuracy in my wizarding family. combined with an 89% damage boost, she's pretty deadly.



-von
sestiva stormblade, legendary diviner, team awesome

Champion
Aug 20, 2010
403
Survivor
Jun 04, 2010
10
This is why it's fair for Storm to have low accuracy:

They deal the most damage out of all schools. If it had more accuracy than 70%, Storm would rule all of the schools. And trust me, this won't be fair. If you hate fizzling so much, simply go to the Bazaar and buy some accuracy gear. My grandmaster storm rarely fizzles because of the gear he wears.

1