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Fizzle rate broken

1
AuthorMessage
Survivor
Mar 05, 2011
31
I am constantly noticing that a spell with an 80% success rate is only successful about 50% of the time. Now, 80% means it works 4 out of 5 times, not 2 out of 5. Can we please get this fixed? I have literally counted it out and I've had spells fizzle 3 out of 5 times casting them (which means a 40% chance of success) and my lowest chance card is 70%. It is definitely broken!

Survivor
Jul 09, 2009
12
tonym144 wrote:
I am constantly noticing that a spell with an 80% success rate is only successful about 50% of the time. Now, 80% means it works 4 out of 5 times, not 2 out of 5. Can we please get this fixed? I have literally counted it out and I've had spells fizzle 3 out of 5 times casting them (which means a 40% chance of success) and my lowest chance card is 70%. It is definitely broken!


that is a 60% chance not 40% chance by the way.BUT that is how many times you EXPECT it to fizzle not how many times it WILL fizzle.Okay,think of it this way:

you have 5 marbles and 80% of them are red.The 20% are blue.You EXPECT to get a red marble 4 times and only get 1 blue every five times you do it(you put the marble you picked back after picking it out BTW)Obviously the blue represents the times you fizzle and the red represents the times you dont fizzle.You may EXPECT to do the spell without fizzling 4 times but that MAY not happen.Try doing what i just said 5 times and see what you will get.

Ps put the marbles in a bag lol

I you honestly care so much about not fizzling like me, do life.

Ethan DarkHeart Master Of Life

Armiger
May 10, 2010
2080
supered10 wrote:
tonym144 wrote:
I am constantly noticing that a spell with an 80% success rate is only successful about 50% of the time. Now, 80% means it works 4 out of 5 times, not 2 out of 5. Can we please get this fixed? I have literally counted it out and I've had spells fizzle 3 out of 5 times casting them (which means a 40% chance of success) and my lowest chance card is 70%. It is definitely broken!


that is a 60% chance not 40% chance by the way.BUT that is how many times you EXPECT it to fizzle not how many times it WILL fizzle.Okay,think of it this way:

you have 5 marbles and 80% of them are red.The 20% are blue.You EXPECT to get a red marble 4 times and only get 1 blue every five times you do it(you put the marble you picked back after picking it out BTW)Obviously the blue represents the times you fizzle and the red represents the times you dont fizzle.You may EXPECT to do the spell without fizzling 4 times but that MAY not happen.Try doing what i just said 5 times and see what you will get.

Ps put the marbles in a bag lol

I you honestly care so much about not fizzling like me, do life.

Ethan DarkHeart Master Of Life


This is your idea of math? Would it not be easier to take 100 marbles, representing 100%, then if you have say 94% accuracy, replace 6 marbles with a different color, then see how many times you would pull a fizzle. That would be a more accurate representation of accuracy! However, this is not how accuracy is presented in the game, even with a random number generator, so clearly, accuracy and fizzle rates are broken.

Squire
Apr 11, 2010
575
Using clothing that gave me 5% extra boost to all spells accuracy, I had weakness fizzle on me three times in a row! 95% accuracy yet three fizzles straight. I guess it cant be helped much. I wouldn't know about it being broken. But each shot as a chance to fizzle. That X% isn't supposed to be out of the total spells cast during the match. It is for every spell cast throughout the match. I suppose that would have to be bad luck. And of course, the more you play and the more you cast a spell with less than 100% the more fizzles you will see.

Meh. I don't think it's broken.

Survivor
Dec 18, 2008
12
The 80% is per spell not total of that spell being thrown. So every time you attempt to cast that spell it has an 80% chance to hit then consider the slate being cleaned for the next time you attempt to cast it.

Mastermind
Feb 16, 2009
328
Why do people always thin something is broken when it's much more likey that you've run across a spot of bad luck? Luck is a big factor when it comes to accuracy, and you can't break luck down into mathematical equations. You could have a 99% chance of success and still fizzle twice in a row. That doesn't mean something's broken; luck just isn't on your side at the moment.

Now, something would be broken if a ward or a charm fizzled. That's something that Customer Support would be interested to hear about. If something fizzles more often than it should and it DOESN'T have 100% accuracy, don't immediately blame the game.

Jack Fireheart Level 60 Pyromancer and Pyro-sniper

Defender
Jun 13, 2009
102
darthjt wrote:
supered10 wrote:
tonym144 wrote:
I am constantly noticing that a spell with an 80% success rate is only successful about 50% of the time. Now, 80% means it works 4 out of 5 times, not 2 out of 5. Can we please get this fixed? I have literally counted it out and I've had spells fizzle 3 out of 5 times casting them (which means a 40% chance of success) and my lowest chance card is 70%. It is definitely broken!


that is a 60% chance not 40% chance by the way.BUT that is how many times you EXPECT it to fizzle not how many times it WILL fizzle.Okay,think of it this way:

you have 5 marbles and 80% of them are red.The 20% are blue.You EXPECT to get a red marble 4 times and only get 1 blue every five times you do it(you put the marble you picked back after picking it out BTW)Obviously the blue represents the times you fizzle and the red represents the times you dont fizzle.You may EXPECT to do the spell without fizzling 4 times but that MAY not happen.Try doing what i just said 5 times and see what you will get.

Ps put the marbles in a bag lol

I you honestly care so much about not fizzling like me, do life.

Ethan DarkHeart Master Of Life


This is your idea of math? Would it not be easier to take 100 marbles, representing 100%, then if you have say 94% accuracy, replace 6 marbles with a different color, then see how many times you would pull a fizzle. That would be a more accurate representation of accuracy! However, this is not how accuracy is presented in the game, even with a random number generator, so clearly, accuracy and fizzle rates are broken.
He didn't post to give you a math problem. If your unlucky, your unlucky. Like said by the poster before you. You EXPECT to get a red marble 4 times and only get 1 blue every five times you do it. And as said before you. You may EXPECT to do the spell without fizzling 4 times but that MAY not happen.

Historian
May 01, 2010
665
darthjt wrote:
supered10 wrote:
tonym144 wrote:
I am constantly noticing that a spell with an 80% success rate is only successful about 50% of the time. Now, 80% means it works 4 out of 5 times, not 2 out of 5. Can we please get this fixed? I have literally counted it out and I've had spells fizzle 3 out of 5 times casting them (which means a 40% chance of success) and my lowest chance card is 70%. It is definitely broken!


that is a 60% chance not 40% chance by the way.BUT that is how many times you EXPECT it to fizzle not how many times it WILL fizzle.Okay,think of it this way:

you have 5 marbles and 80% of them are red.The 20% are blue.You EXPECT to get a red marble 4 times and only get 1 blue every five times you do it(you put the marble you picked back after picking it out BTW)Obviously the blue represents the times you fizzle and the red represents the times you dont fizzle.You may EXPECT to do the spell without fizzling 4 times but that MAY not happen.Try doing what i just said 5 times and see what you will get.

Ps put the marbles in a bag lol

I you honestly care so much about not fizzling like me, do life.

Ethan DarkHeart Master Of Life


This is your idea of math? Would it not be easier to take 100 marbles, representing 100%, then if you have say 94% accuracy, replace 6 marbles with a different color, then see how many times you would pull a fizzle. That would be a more accurate representation of accuracy! However, this is not how accuracy is presented in the game, even with a random number generator, so clearly, accuracy and fizzle rates are broken.


he did the same thing as you , but on a much smaller scale, a much more understandable, not everyone is a wiz at math, and even though larger is more accurate, it also gets less understandable (if i didnt say that already)

but yea long story short, dont confuse theory with actuality , not everything goes by theoryif you do 5 spells it doesn't GARUNTEE(excuse spelling) 4 hits and one fizz

also, i have no heck of a clue how KI does it, and frankly, until you DO know, you can never say its broken

Armiger
May 10, 2010
2080
Superwiz1560 wrote:
Why do people always thin something is broken when it's much more likey that you've run across a spot of bad luck? Luck is a big factor when it comes to accuracy, and you can't break luck down into mathematical equations. You could have a 99% chance of success and still fizzle twice in a row. That doesn't mean something's broken; luck just isn't on your side at the moment.

Now, something would be broken if a ward or a charm fizzled. That's something that Customer Support would be interested to hear about. If something fizzles more often than it should and it DOESN'T have 100% accuracy, don't immediately blame the game.

Jack Fireheart Level 60 Pyromancer and Pyro-sniper


Okay, simple question then, how many times would you have to fizzle at 99% accuracy before you thought it was broken? say 30 out of 100? 20 out of 100? 10 out of 100? 3 in a row? 4 in a row? 5 in a row? we are after all, talking about 99% accuracy here!

Historian
May 01, 2010
665
darthjt wrote:
Superwiz1560 wrote:
Why do people always thin something is broken when it's much more likey that you've run across a spot of bad luck? Luck is a big factor when it comes to accuracy, and you can't break luck down into mathematical equations. You could have a 99% chance of success and still fizzle twice in a row. That doesn't mean something's broken; luck just isn't on your side at the moment.

Now, something would be broken if a ward or a charm fizzled. That's something that Customer Support would be interested to hear about. If something fizzles more often than it should and it DOESN'T have 100% accuracy, don't immediately blame the game.

Jack Fireheart Level 60 Pyromancer and Pyro-sniper


Okay, simple question then, how many times would you have to fizzle at 99% accuracy before you thought it was broken? say 30 out of 100? 20 out of 100? 10 out of 100? 3 in a row? 4 in a row? 5 in a row? we are after all, talking about 99% accuracy here!


hey could i bring back your previous example???? ok 100 marbles in a bag (heavy bag) and you take out one red and put in one blue, ok, so now you draw a marble out of the bag, and you put it back in, there is a SLIGHT chance, and i mean miniscule, that you will bring out the blue 5 times in a row (terribly unlikely but it COULD happen) cause the blue is still floating around in there. would you say THAT is broken, even if YOU draw the marbles???? i would say superwiz was right, its about luck, nothing is broken, and you cant call something broken if you dont know how it works

Armiger
May 10, 2010
2080
slammer111 wrote:
darthjt wrote:
Superwiz1560 wrote:
Why do people always thin something is broken when it's much more likey that you've run across a spot of bad luck? Luck is a big factor when it comes to accuracy, and you can't break luck down into mathematical equations. You could have a 99% chance of success and still fizzle twice in a row. That doesn't mean something's broken; luck just isn't on your side at the moment.

Now, something would be broken if a ward or a charm fizzled. That's something that Customer Support would be interested to hear about. If something fizzles more often than it should and it DOESN'T have 100% accuracy, don't immediately blame the game.

Jack Fireheart Level 60 Pyromancer and Pyro-sniper


Okay, simple question then, how many times would you have to fizzle at 99% accuracy before you thought it was broken? say 30 out of 100? 20 out of 100? 10 out of 100? 3 in a row? 4 in a row? 5 in a row? we are after all, talking about 99% accuracy here!


hey could i bring back your previous example???? ok 100 marbles in a bag (heavy bag) and you take out one red and put in one blue, ok, so now you draw a marble out of the bag, and you put it back in, there is a SLIGHT chance, and i mean miniscule, that you will bring out the blue 5 times in a row (terribly unlikely but it COULD happen) cause the blue is still floating around in there. would you say THAT is broken, even if YOU draw the marbles???? i would say superwiz was right, its about luck, nothing is broken, and you cant call something broken if you dont know how it works


I understand the possibilities, however, if you have 1 Blue marble and 99 Red Marble and shake up the bag every time, the chances of you pulling 5 Blue marbles is astronomical. You have a better chance of getting hit by lightining AND winning the lottery at the same time than you do of doing that.

Historian
May 01, 2010
665
darthjt wrote:
slammer111 wrote:
darthjt wrote:
Superwiz1560 wrote:
Why do people always thin something is broken when it's much more likey that you've run across a spot of bad luck? Luck is a big factor when it comes to accuracy, and you can't break luck down into mathematical equations. You could have a 99% chance of success and still fizzle twice in a row. That doesn't mean something's broken; luck just isn't on your side at the moment.

Now, something would be broken if a ward or a charm fizzled. That's something that Customer Support would be interested to hear about. If something fizzles more often than it should and it DOESN'T have 100% accuracy, don't immediately blame the game.

Jack Fireheart Level 60 Pyromancer and Pyro-sniper


Okay, simple question then, how many times would you have to fizzle at 99% accuracy before you thought it was broken? say 30 out of 100? 20 out of 100? 10 out of 100? 3 in a row? 4 in a row? 5 in a row? we are after all, talking about 99% accuracy here!


hey could i bring back your previous example???? ok 100 marbles in a bag (heavy bag) and you take out one red and put in one blue, ok, so now you draw a marble out of the bag, and you put it back in, there is a SLIGHT chance, and i mean miniscule, that you will bring out the blue 5 times in a row (terribly unlikely but it COULD happen) cause the blue is still floating around in there. would you say THAT is broken, even if YOU draw the marbles???? i would say superwiz was right, its about luck, nothing is broken, and you cant call something broken if you dont know how it works


I understand the possibilities, however, if you have 1 Blue marble and 99 Red Marble and shake up the bag every time, the chances of you pulling 5 Blue marbles is astronomical. You have a better chance of getting hit by lightining AND winning the lottery at the same time than you do of doing that.


yea i know way too well, but still, there is a chance, and that actually is easier than you would think, a really dumb person might try to scratch off a ticket during a lightning storm with a lightning rod, never know...

Mastermind
Feb 16, 2009
328
darthjt wrote:
Superwiz1560 wrote:
Why do people always thin something is broken when it's much more likey that you've run across a spot of bad luck? Luck is a big factor when it comes to accuracy, and you can't break luck down into mathematical equations. You could have a 99% chance of success and still fizzle twice in a row. That doesn't mean something's broken; luck just isn't on your side at the moment.

Now, something would be broken if a ward or a charm fizzled. That's something that Customer Support would be interested to hear about. If something fizzles more often than it should and it DOESN'T have 100% accuracy, don't immediately blame the game.

Jack Fireheart Level 60 Pyromancer and Pyro-sniper


Okay, simple question then, how many times would you have to fizzle at 99% accuracy before you thought it was broken? say 30 out of 100? 20 out of 100? 10 out of 100? 3 in a row? 4 in a row? 5 in a row? we are after all, talking about 99% accuracy here!


Good question, darth. The best answer I can give you is: It doesn't matter. Here's an example:

If you're trying to toss a hundred-sided die (roll with it), and 99 of those sides has a blue dot and one side has a red dot, and you get that red dot 3, 4, or 5 times in a row, is the die-- unweighted, by the way-- broken?

Because there's NEVER going to be an absolute zero percent chance of something when it comes to combining probability, percentage, and luck to form what we know in W101 as 'accuracy', unless there's a glitch or something, in the grand scheme of things, it really won't matter how many times something fizzles.

There's a 0.000000000000000001% chance of a 99% spell fizzling consecutively ten times in a row. It is extremely unlikely that this will happen to you, but the point is, it's not impossible. There's ALWAYS the smallest chance of something that seems completely impossible when it comes to probability and accuracy such as this.

Armiger
Feb 25, 2009
2425
Ok. I have read all of the above, but I have to agree that Fizzle rate is out of wack.

I have a mid level storm wizard ( yes, I know storm Fizzles a lot). But I was recently in a boss battle (solo) that 4 out of 5 of school spells fizzed. And I don't mean fizz 2 times then hit and fizz 2 more times. I mean 4 times in a row. Guess what, I died. It was a battle that should have been an easy defeat of the boss. I had already fought this boss once solo and beat him. But it seems that every time I run this wizard the fizz rate is worse. Even my other wizards are having more spells fizz.

Legendary Life wizard has been fizzing on healing spells, I have had shields, weakness, charms and even auras fizz. The auras have been fizzing at least 95% of the time. So don't tell me that is normal.

My balance wizard is a level 53 and her fizz rate is almost as bad. She fizzes more than she hits. The only reason she is at the level she is, is due to the help of a very good friend. But it gets very irritating that she is not able to hold her own in battle. Balance spells are weak as it is and this just makes it worse.

So your game of marbles does not explain the issue. I know about percentages and it does not apply here.

Astrologist
Jun 04, 2010
1008
So, random information....

Odds of winning a standard single state lottery: 18,000,000 to 1.
Odds of reporting being struck by lighting in any given year: 750,000 to 1.

On a 100 sided die:
Odds of rolling the same number twice in a row: 10,000 to 1.
Odds of rolling the same number thrice in a row: 1,000,000 to 1.

However, you still need to put odds aside and here's why. Let's go with 6 sided dice, which I'm sure we have all rolled at some point in our lives. I think we can all agree that when you roll one 6 sided die, your odds of getting a 6 are 1 in 6. Therefore, if you roll it 6 times, are you guaranteed to get a 6? The answer, of course, is no. Like a previous poster said, there is no 100% chance (or 0% chance either) when dealing with probability. If you care, there is only about a 66.5% chance of rolling a six if your roll a 6 sided die 6 times.

Take the odds for the lighting strike. Those odds were figured by taking the number of reported deaths and injuries and then averaging them against population for that year. Given that there were 60 deaths that year from lighting, do you think that they happened at a rate of 5 per month, or do you think they more likely happened mostly within the space of two or three months? My vote is for two or three months since you need the right atmospheric conditions.

When you consider that KI simulates a 100 sided die roll for every card cast (enemies as well as players) and that they have well over a million players, it is quite likely that in a given day KI simulates possibly a billion or more 100 sided die rolls. With the "die" rolling that many times a day, it becomes almost certain that statistically unlikely events will happen to people. The system is not broken. That is just simply the kind of thing that happens in games which involve random chance.

I hope this helps...

Armiger
May 10, 2010
2080
gtarhannon wrote:
So, random information....

Odds of winning a standard single state lottery: 18,000,000 to 1.
Odds of reporting being struck by lighting in any given year: 750,000 to 1.

On a 100 sided die:
Odds of rolling the same number twice in a row: 10,000 to 1.
Odds of rolling the same number thrice in a row: 1,000,000 to 1.

However, you still need to put odds aside and here's why. Let's go with 6 sided dice, which I'm sure we have all rolled at some point in our lives. I think we can all agree that when you roll one 6 sided die, your odds of getting a 6 are 1 in 6. Therefore, if you roll it 6 times, are you guaranteed to get a 6? The answer, of course, is no. Like a previous poster said, there is no 100% chance (or 0% chance either) when dealing with probability. If you care, there is only about a 66.5% chance of rolling a six if your roll a 6 sided die 6 times.

Take the odds for the lighting strike. Those odds were figured by taking the number of reported deaths and injuries and then averaging them against population for that year. Given that there were 60 deaths that year from lighting, do you think that they happened at a rate of 5 per month, or do you think they more likely happened mostly within the space of two or three months? My vote is for two or three months since you need the right atmospheric conditions.

When you consider that KI simulates a 100 sided die roll for every card cast (enemies as well as players) and that they have well over a million players, it is quite likely that in a given day KI simulates possibly a billion or more 100 sided die rolls. With the "die" rolling that many times a day, it becomes almost certain that statistically unlikely events will happen to people. The system is not broken. That is just simply the kind of thing that happens in games which involve random chance.

I hope this helps...


lol I loved this analogy, thanks for brightening my day!

Astrologist
Jun 04, 2010
1008
goldendragon18 wrote:
Legendary Life wizard has been fizzing on healing spells, I have had shields, weakness, charms and even auras fizz. The auras have been fizzing at least 95% of the time. So don't tell me that is normal.


If what I'm hearing is that you are casting 100% accuracy spells and they are fizzling, then my only question is this... are you being hit with black mantle, smoke mantle, smokescreen, or some sort of dispel when they fizzle? If not and your 100% accuracy spell is fizzling, then document it and open a support ticket. KI will want to know.

Mastermind
Feb 16, 2009
328
goldendragon18 wrote:
Ok. I have read all of the above, but I have to agree that Fizzle rate is out of wack.

I have a mid level storm wizard ( yes, I know storm Fizzles a lot). But I was recently in a boss battle (solo) that 4 out of 5 of school spells fizzed. And I don't mean fizz 2 times then hit and fizz 2 more times. I mean 4 times in a row. Guess what, I died. It was a battle that should have been an easy defeat of the boss. I had already fought this boss once solo and beat him. But it seems that every time I run this wizard the fizz rate is worse. Even my other wizards are having more spells fizz.

Legendary Life wizard has been fizzing on healing spells, I have had shields, weakness, charms and even auras fizz. The auras have been fizzing at least 95% of the time. So don't tell me that is normal.

My balance wizard is a level 53 and her fizz rate is almost as bad. She fizzes more than she hits. The only reason she is at the level she is, is due to the help of a very good friend. But it gets very irritating that she is not able to hold her own in battle. Balance spells are weak as it is and this just makes it worse.

So your game of marbles does not explain the issue. I know about percentages and it does not apply here.


It's starting to get really annoying when someone starts talking about a rise in the fizzle rate when there's no such thing. It's called 'accuracy'. A Centaur has a 90% chance of success. What does that leave? A 10% chance of a fizzle. There is no 'rate'. A rate would imply that in a set number of casts, this many will succeed and this many will fizzle, which is not the case.

Now, if your shields or blades start fizzling, contact support. Don't blame 'the fizzle rate'. Just contact customer support and they will look into the problem. It's that simple.

And fizzling four times in a row CAN happen more than once in a blue moon. It's happened to my Pyromancer, my Diviner, and my Necromancer, all more than once.

And when you say Auras, do you mean the DOT Auras like Fre Elf and Frostbite, or the Astral Auras from the Star School. If it's the latter, yeah, that's a problem. All Astral spells have 100% accuracy unless hit with a Smokescreen or a Black Mantle. If that isn't the case, like I said above, contact support.

But if you really feel that, even though you're probably unlucky, something is wrong, I repeat, contact support. They'll be a lot more friendly towards you than some people on this forum who are getting sick and tired of hearing the same false excuses over and over again.

You are half-right about one thing, though. Percentages do not completely apply to your accuracy. Luck plays a bigger role.

Jack Fireheart Level 60 Pyromancer and Rabbit's Foot Hunter

Armiger
May 10, 2010
2080
Superwiz1560 wrote:
goldendragon18 wrote:
Ok. I have read all of the above, but I have to agree that Fizzle rate is out of wack.


It's starting to get really annoying when someone starts talking about a rise in the fizzle rate when there's no such thing. It's called 'accuracy'. A Centaur has a 90% chance of success. What does that leave? A 10% chance of a fizzle. There is no 'rate'. A rate would imply that in a set number of casts, this many will succeed and this many will fizzle, which is not the case.

Now, if your shields or blades start fizzling, contact support. Don't blame 'the fizzle rate'. Just contact customer support and they will look into the problem. It's that simple.

And fizzling four times in a row CAN happen more than once in a blue moon. It's happened to my Pyromancer, my Diviner, and my Necromancer, all more than once.

And when you say Auras, do you mean the DOT Auras like Fre Elf and Frostbite, or the Astral Auras from the Star School. If it's the latter, yeah, that's a problem. All Astral spells have 100% accuracy unless hit with a Smokescreen or a Black Mantle. If that isn't the case, like I said above, contact support.

But if you really feel that, even though you're probably unlucky, something is wrong, I repeat, contact support. They'll be a lot more friendly towards you than some people on this forum who are getting sick and tired of hearing the same false excuses over and over again.

You are half-right about one thing, though. Percentages do not completely apply to your accuracy. Luck plays a bigger role.

Jack Fireheart Level 60 Pyromancer and Rabbit's Foot Hunter


Annoyed? Annoying is having 99% Accuracy and then fizzling 3 times in a row, then finally the spell works, then in the next battle, fizzling 2 more times. So that, out of 7 times casting only 2 work successfully with a 99% accuracy. No black mantles were used, or any negatives of any kind. Does this mean that the next 300 times I cast have been accurate? No, I have fizzled many times since then.

I am sorry, but your bad luck, good luck, is the wrong concept. I don't care how many times you look at it, if you take 99 blue marbles and 1 red marble, you could spend your entire life trying to put out 1 red marble 3 times in a row and it probably will never happen. And if it Ever DID happen, there is no way, out of 7 times you would pull it twice more!

So, say what you will, but something is wrong and that IS my opinion!

Astrologist
Jun 04, 2010
1008
darthjt wrote:
lol I loved this analogy, thanks for brightening my day!


No problem. :D

Astrologist
Jun 04, 2010
1008
It is clear to me from monitoring this thread that probability is one of those mathematical concepts that people will either get or never get. I am reminded of the time my class learned that .999999 (repeating) is exactly equal to one so long as it repeats into infinity and doesn't ever stop. That was a long day. People here can assure and reassure that there is nothing wrong with the system until they are all blue in the face. However, at the end of the day, you either accept it or you don't. I will offer these last two nuggets if they at all help...

First, any "event" can have a limited number of outcomes. In these discussions, that "event" is rolling a virtual 100 sided die. Therefore, in this "event", there are 100 possible outcomes, each with an equal chance of success (1 in 100). However, no single "event" (rolling the die) binds the chances of any future event because if it did, then the odds of a single die roll would never actually be 1 in 100 in the first place (and likely the universe would implode as well, but that's wholly unrelated to this conversation). Probability and pattern recognition are useful human intellectual concepts for trying to make an "educated" guess as to what might happen but at the end of the day it is all still just a guess, albeit an "educated" one based on past observation. You cannot ever "know" the future, you can only guess and try to prepare for it based on past observation.

Second, a virtual die is rolled for every spell cast. Both your spell and each enemy spell whether it is 100% accuracy or not. As a player in a battle, there is no way to ever roll the same number twice in a row because it is a turn based system... unless the other players (and enemies) all pass. This is just something to consider when contemplating the "in a row" line of thinking. For instance, the odds of rolling the same number twice in a row (on a 100 sided die) is 1 in 10,000. However, if there are two enemies and one player then the die is actually being rolled 4 times in a row (two times between your two cast attempts), not 2 which makes it not so nearly odds defying.

My grandfather used to say... "there is no such thing as impossible, just improbable". No one knows that better than Roy Sullivan. Look him up... You'll be astounded by his luck.

Armiger
Feb 25, 2009
2425
gtarhannon wrote:
goldendragon18 wrote:
Legendary Life wizard has been fizzing on healing spells, I have had shields, weakness, charms and even auras fizz. The auras have been fizzing at least 95% of the time. So don't tell me that is normal.


If what I'm hearing is that you are casting 100% accuracy spells and they are fizzling, then my only question is this... are you being hit with black mantle, smoke mantle, smokescreen, or some sort of dispel when they fizzle? If not and your 100% accuracy spell is fizzling, then document it and open a support ticket. KI will want to know.


I try to be very careful when it comes to any of the weaknesses or dispels. Although there is no way to avoid them and it has happened to me, I have had healing spells fizz for no apparent reason. For example, yesterday I was helping a friend in the Chantry and needed to heal myself. When I cast the Satyr, it fizzed. Thankfully my friend was at almost full health so it gave me a chance to use another heal. The only way I would know to document it would be by screenshot. If there is another way I would really appreciate knowing.

Historian
May 01, 2010
665
goldendragon18 wrote:
gtarhannon wrote:
goldendragon18 wrote:
Legendary Life wizard has been fizzing on healing spells, I have had shields, weakness, charms and even auras fizz. The auras have been fizzing at least 95% of the time. So don't tell me that is normal.


If what I'm hearing is that you are casting 100% accuracy spells and they are fizzling, then my only question is this... are you being hit with black mantle, smoke mantle, smokescreen, or some sort of dispel when they fizzle? If not and your 100% accuracy spell is fizzling, then document it and open a support ticket. KI will want to know.


I try to be very careful when it comes to any of the weaknesses or dispels. Although there is no way to avoid them and it has happened to me, I have had healing spells fizz for no apparent reason. For example, yesterday I was helping a friend in the Chantry and needed to heal myself. When I cast the Satyr, it fizzed. Thankfully my friend was at almost full health so it gave me a chance to use another heal. The only way I would know to document it would be by screenshot. If there is another way I would really appreciate knowing.


i think thats a bad example, satyr WILL fizz once in a while, it has an accuracy of 90%

Mastermind
Feb 16, 2009
328
darthjt wrote:
Superwiz1560 wrote:
goldendragon18 wrote:
Ok. I have read all of the above, but I have to agree that Fizzle rate is out of wack.


It's starting to get really annoying when someone starts talking about a rise in the fizzle rate when there's no such thing. It's called 'accuracy'. A Centaur has a 90% chance of success. What does that leave? A 10% chance of a fizzle. There is no 'rate'. A rate would imply that in a set number of casts, this many will succeed and this many will fizzle, which is not the case.

Now, if your shields or blades start fizzling, contact support. Don't blame 'the fizzle rate'. Just contact customer support and they will look into the problem. It's that simple.

And fizzling four times in a row CAN happen more than once in a blue moon. It's happened to my Pyromancer, my Diviner, and my Necromancer, all more than once.

And when you say Auras, do you mean the DOT Auras like Fre Elf and Frostbite, or the Astral Auras from the Star School. If it's the latter, yeah, that's a problem. All Astral spells have 100% accuracy unless hit with a Smokescreen or a Black Mantle. If that isn't the case, like I said above, contact support.

But if you really feel that, even though you're probably unlucky, something is wrong, I repeat, contact support. They'll be a lot more friendly towards you than some people on this forum who are getting sick and tired of hearing the same false excuses over and over again.

You are half-right about one thing, though. Percentages do not completely apply to your accuracy. Luck plays a bigger role.

Jack Fireheart Level 60 Pyromancer and Rabbit's Foot Hunter


Annoyed? Annoying is having 99% Accuracy and then fizzling 3 times in a row, then finally the spell works, then in the next battle, fizzling 2 more times. So that, out of 7 times casting only 2 work successfully with a 99% accuracy. No black mantles were used, or any negatives of any kind. Does this mean that the next 300 times I cast have been accurate? No, I have fizzled many times since then.

I am sorry, but your bad luck, good luck, is the wrong concept. I don't care how many times you look at it, if you take 99 blue marbles and 1 red marble, you could spend your entire life trying to put out 1 red marble 3 times in a row and it probably will never happen. And if it Ever DID happen, there is no way, out of 7 times you would pull it twice more!

So, say what you will, but something is wrong and that IS my opinion!


True, and I respect your opinion and agree with your facts and figures. But the point I was trying to make was that sometimes, you get what you get, and if I fizzle four times in a row, yeah I'll get miffed. Who wouldn't? But more likely than not, there's nothing I, or anyone else can do about it. I could send a ticket into CS and they could assure me that they're looking into it, but even if there is a glitch in the RNG or whatever W101 uses for their accuracy program, and it gets fixed, the fact won't change that chain fizzling is still possible. Nothing short of pitching fizzling altogether would relieve our frustration over chain fizzling, so the only possible thing to do would be to suck it up, take a trip to the Fairegrounds and move on.

Jack Fireheart Level 60 Pyromancer and Anti-Fizzle Crusader

Armiger
May 10, 2010
2080
LoL SuperWiz. I do agree with you, I doubt that anything will ever be done about it and that even if they did reprogram the accuracy %s people would still fizzle. I just wanted to post my experiences and view on the matter, because it is frusterating!

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